NFL Draft Notebook, Part 2: How quickly will rookie RBs (and Brock Bowers) make an impact in fantasy football?

In the second of a two-part series, Dalton Del Don reveals his fantasy football expectations for members of the 2024 NFL Draft class, with today’s focus on running backs (and one hyped tight end). Go here for Part 1.

Running back

Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals

Benson could make a difference as a rookie despite his modest draft capital. He forced the majority missed tackles due to touch in 2021 since the statistic was recorded. He joins an Arizona offense that was in the top 10 in the second half of last season before adding rookie power Marvin Harrison Jr. There is little competition behind James Conner, who is 29 years old, coming off the second-largest workload of his career and has missed an average of 3.6 games over the past five seasons.

Conner has never played a full season or eclipsed 215 carries during any of his seven years in the NFL, and it’s possible that Benson surpasses him at this stage of their careers. The Cardinals quietly had the fourth-best EPA/rush last season, so Arizona’s Lead Back is in a terrible situation. With a nice power/speed combo, Benson has a leg up on the top 10 fantasy RB if/when he gets a chance to take over Arizona’s backfield.

Benson will require patience, but I will pick him as a top 25 fantasy RB.

Jonathan Brooks, Carolina Panthers

Brooks would have been elaborated higher if he wasn’t returning from ACL surgery, and it might also require some patience from fantasy managers. Brooks is more talented than Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders and should have no trouble supplanting both of them once he’s fully healthy. However, the Panthers have no reason to rush the rookie, and Carolina is far from an ideal landing spot. Hopefully new head coach Dave Canales will turn things around, but the Panthers had by far the fewest yards per play (5.1) in the NFL last season.

Carolina added Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, but Bryce Young may continue to be a real problem. Still, Hubbard was the ninth fantasy over the final seven weeks of last season, so Brooks will have real value when he eventually steps into the role. His ACL tear was clean and Brooks is on track to be cleared for training camp.

Carolina will limit his rookie upside, but Brooks can pass protected and will have the opportunity to be a workhorse in the second half of the season. He should be drafted as a top 30 fantasy RB.

Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams

Corum not an elite athlete and profiles similar to Kyren Williams. Sean McVay loves using featured backs, but the draft pick is another reason to avoid Williams at his high ADP. Williams was placed on IR midseason last year and later suffered a hand injury that required surgery during Los Angeles’ Wild Card loss. He also suffered a serious ankle sprain during the first play of his NFL career, during the opening kickoff. It’s probably safe to say that Williams has an increased injury risk to go along with his struggles as a receiverso it’s likely Corum will get an opportunity at some point.

Williams seems like an incredibly risky early-round fantasy pick given his profile, the number of injuries he has suffered, and the rookie addition.

Meanwhile, Corum was incredibly productive in college, scoring an impressive 47 touchdowns in his final two years at Michigan. There are negatives, however, including some Incredibly low tackle misses and yards after contact numbers after suffering a meniscus tear. Additionally, nearly every touchdown Corum has scored came inside the five yard line. Of course, this goal-line success could also result in the rookie stealing Williams’ job in the red zone, which would be a fantasy disaster.

Corum’s limitations are less of a concern, as a similar Williams was the No. 2 fantasy defender (per game) in this system, behind only Christian McCaffrey last season. The Rams got it the most yards per play when their offense was fully healthy last year, and Los Angeles produced the second-highest EPA/rush of the season.

Corum finds himself in a situation with a path to a lot of fantasy upside, so he should be the third rookie RB drafted despite his underwhelming profile.

Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins

Wright ran a 4.38 40 and landed in a Miami system that produced NFL records in YPC (5.1) and rushing touchdowns (27). He is an athlete similar to Reggie Bush, just 10 pounds heavier, and Wright has more potential as a receiver than his college stats might suggest. Raheem Mostert will turn 32 soon and broke 200 runs (219) for the first time in his career last season. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane may be the only player in the league who is a risk of injury as great as Mostert.

Wright only has fourth-round draft capital, but he’s an explosive defender in an excellent situation behind two of the league’s biggest injury risks. He’s my #4 rookie RB.

MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers

Lloyd is the favorite to become Green Bay’s RB2, as AJ Dillon has become one of the least productive quarterbacks in the league. Newcomer Josh Jacobs also fought last seasonbut he dealt with the most defenders in the area and is set to become Packers leader. Lloyd has committed 11 fumbles in 291 touches in his college career and has questions about pass protection, so he’s a failed prospect who needs to develop. But Lloyd also has Intriguing potential and can break tackles, and the Packers have one of the most exciting young offenses in the league. He is in the top five of the rookie dynasty.

Jacobs essentially signed a one-year contractSo there’s a path for Lloyd to become Green Bay’s leader in 2025 if the rookie impresses.

Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers

Warring ran the fastest 40 time (4.33) among this year’s running backs and has the second best relative athletic score among 1,745 RBs since 1987. This is De’Von Achane speed, but with over 30 pounds more. DK Metcalf and Guerendo are the only two perspectives in the last 20 years weigh so much and run so fast.

Guerendo had limited college production, and the 49ers traded for an RB with an elite Speed ​​Score (Guerendo ranked first) before… just so they don’t play an NFL snap. San Francisco also has a poor recent history of drafting mid-tier running backs (Trey Sermon, Tyrion Davis-Price), so Guerendo is hardly a sure thing.

Still, this is an incredible athlete who was locked behind talent in college and could easily grow into the NFL with help from Bobby Turner. The 49ers led the NFL in RB rushing yards last season, and Christian McCaffrey led the league in touchdowns, so Shanahan’s system remains the best for fantasy defenders. McCaffrey had 417 ringtones last year, and Elijah Mitchell (who is in the final year of his contract) was the most injury-prone player in the league since entering the NFL.

Guerendo is one of this year’s best late-round flyers in fantasy drafts.

Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers

Vidal landed on a Chargers team that drafted LT Joe Alt over Malik Nabers and wants to run the ball with Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers lost 87% of his RB rush attempts in 2023 in free agency, and Gus Edwards will soon turn 29 years old. Edwards could also see his YPC plummet from Lamar Jackson, and JK Dobbins is trying to return from a torn Achilles tendon. Vidal is short, but a good athlete who was productive in college, and LA seems to love the rookie back. With so few weapons at receiver and Justin Herbert at QB, Vidal’s explosiveness will be a welcome addition.

The Chargers project will have one of the easiest schedules in the league and has one of the tightest running rooms in the NFL, so Vidal has true fantasy upside as a rookie.

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

Davis becomes a backup with fantasy upside in Buffalo. James Cook ranked in the top five in yards per touch (5.6) last season, but his fantasy value was limited thanks to just two runs inside the five-yard line after Week 4. Cook didn’t rank in the top 20 among the red defenders – touches in the zone, and Davis projects to take over the goal line in 2024. Latavius ​​Murray had the The 12th biggest RB carries inside the five last year, although Josh Allen stole 14 of them, so the rookie could achieve double-digit touchdowns.

Cook will have a hard time living up to his current RB14 Expert Consensus Rating in 0.5 PPR leagues, although he will likely continue to miss short touchdowns.

Tight finish

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

It is likely that Bowers the best tight end prospect in college football history, but Las Vegas was undoubtedly a tough spot for his fantasy value. The Raiders have one of the worst QB situations in the league, a true alpha at wide receiver and just drafted a tight end with a top 40 pick last year. Bowers will play indoors and hopefully Michael Mayer will handle most of the blocking while Bowers will see a lot of action in the slots, but Las Vegas managed the sixth-fewest yards per game last season; Gardner Minshew is unlikely to be a huge upgrade over Aidan O’Connell – if at all.

Bowers looks like a unicorn able to make a immediate impact in any situation, but he will be competing for looks with Davante Adams (who finished second in the league in targets and target share last season) for a bottom-five QB. The tight end position looks oddly strong in 2024, so Bowers is unlikely to star at the position right away like Sam LaPorta did in last year’s rookie class.

Still, Bowers should be drafted as a top-12 fantasy tight end despite being in a less-than-ideal situation in Las Vegas.