The Spin, Buy Low/Sell High hitter edition: Perfect time to test the waters with Salvador Pérez

We are almost into the second week of May. Hitter statistics are starting to carry enough weight that we can start to identify good candidates for buy-low, sell-high hitting. Here are some names from my cheat sheet; see how they match yours. We’ll attack the pitchers later.

Batting Performances to Buy Low

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets

Some might look at the .221 average and think Nimmo has been a fantasy hole, but the rest of his profile is stable. He scored 17 runs and drove in 21; hit three home runs, stole two bases. His preseason Yahoo rating was 129; he is currently ranked 161st in the 5×5 reserved value. The deficit is very small.

Nimmo’s Baseball Savant sliders are by your side. Most stats are fixed on the right side, mostly above league average. Your expected average, according to your contact profile, is 71 points higher than the actual average. His batting should be 144 points more. While Nimmo’s strikeout rate is around league average, there is no other hitting skill where he doesn’t easily surpass the MLB norm.

I love this type of player, a broad skill set without any shining features. Bill James told us a long time ago, that He is the type of player who is often underestimated. See if you can steal Nimmo’s below-market price in your league.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates

This is another highly skilled player that we featured as underrated before the season. Reynolds didn’t get off to a horrible start – .243/.344/.397 – but he earned a .272 average and .479 batting in his debut month. His walk rate is in the 89th percentile in the league, he always has a reasonable strikeout rate, and he hits the ball about 9.5% of the time, which puts him in the 71st percentile. The steady norms Reynolds has set in 2022-23 are the way to bet here; he’s been a little weak so far, but it’s not his fault.

Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals (32% rostered)

I know it’s not easy to find faith with the cardinals who are in last place, but in certain groups, I want you to do that. Start with Nootbaar.

His .169 average is comically unlucky – his hard-hit profile suggests a reasonable .259 average – and that .273 slugging is also a stroke of luck – the Statcast page offers a .457 slugging. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are believing in Nootbaar’s results so far, not his components – he scored nine in a recent game this weekend. But let’s bet on talent and assume Nootbaar will quickly move up the lineup once results start to normalize.

The player we’ve seen the last two years – 118 OPS+, .786 OPS, good power, some speed – is what I expect from here on out. Add him in shallow leagues, look for a deal for him in deep leagues.

Batting performances to sell high

Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros

Altuve is one of the few Astros who has hit the ground running to open 2024; this could easily be a sub-.500 team for the balance of the year. But Altuve’s hitting profile has some underlying issues; his average is 57 points higher than his batted balls chart suggests, and Savant’s stats say Altuve’s hitting percentage is 76 points higher than expected. And I wonder if Altuve will continue to run at his current pace (seven steals); his sprint speed is just in the 67th percentile and he is in the middle of his age-34 season.

Altuve is too good to leave the map, but it’s highly possible that April will be considered the best month of the year by a considerable margin. I could try to time the trading market for it.

Salvador Pérez, C, Realeza

It hurts to reveal this, as Pérez is off to a torrid .328/.388/.566 start with an AL-best 30 RBI, and the Royals were one of the biggest offensive surprises of the opening month. But like many of his teammates, Pérez’s hot start is fueled by an otherworldly performance with runners on base — .426/.492/.852 with 29 RBI. This will never last.

Perez is also navigating his age-34 season, and we have to be mindful of the heavy workloads Kansas City has placed on him throughout his career. Let’s face it, it’s not like I expected Perez to fall on his face. But currently you have some interesting statistics that can be presented in the commercial market.

Connor Joe, OF, Pirates (34% rostered)

This makes me a little sad, as Joe was a reserve round pick in NL Tout Wars and was one of the biggest surplus earners in the early going. But it’s pretty obvious he’s playing with his skis. That .290 average should be 57 points lower based on his hard-hit profile, and his .460 slugging is about 91 points higher according to competent statistics. And remember, the Pirates generally viewed Joe as a short platoon player rather than an everyday staple. When his stats begin to normalize and stabilize, he will likely miss much of his current playing time. You can’t blame the Pirates for taking advantage of the hot hand, but I don’t expect Joe to remain an everyday player for the rest of the year.

Another important point: I recognize that selling Joe on a deeper mixed league may be difficult. He didn’t have much pedigree going into the season and I doubt his opponents will be after him in negotiations. Just know that what we see now is probably not sustainable. Maybe you’ll just cut it out for a later June flavor.

Connor Wong, C, Red Sox (29% rostered)

It’s not like the fantasy world has gone crazy for Wong – his casting remains at a modest 29%. But I could easily see many of their new managers in deep leagues abandoning ship when their fortunes decline.

Wong currently has a .346/.373/.577 slash line with five homers. This is excellent. But his batted ball profile suggests a .248 average and .434 slugging. All of his most affected metrics are below the league average, some of them well below the median.

Maybe Wong is a little better than the semi-regular .235/.288/.385 the Red Sox used for most of last year. But I don’t think he’s much better than that. Your first month has mirages written all over it.