Few fantasy analysts can take the heat – and deliver it – like Dalton Del Don. He’ll bring his incredible fantasy baseball takes here every week to help you keep the fire burning in your leagues. And speaking of fire…
• Andy Pages has started all but one game since being called up by the Dodgers and has posted a 154 wRC+. He hasn’t recorded a walk yet and is putting up a high BABIP (.367), but there’s a lot to like here.
Pages destroyed Triple-A this year (.371/.452/.694) and has already destroyed one of the best swing paths in the majors. Los Angeles lineup will help count stats, and Dodger Stadium boosted right-handed homers an MLB record 26% over the last three seasons.
Pages could be considered one of the best hitters added to waivers this year.
• Rogers Center in Toronto increased home runs for right-handed hitters by an MLB-record 28% in 2022, but ironically has suppressed them since making renovations in 2023. Despite beat writers speculating an even bigger launch pad thanks to outdoor fences movingfor whatever reason (line of sight?), Toronto has decreased homers for RHB impressive 23% so far this season.
This is a tiny sample when it comes to park factors, but it is also becoming a longer trend since the changes occurred. Some Blue Jays hitters
They were already overrated in projection systems thanks to playing in minor league stadiums in 2021, and now their park has become a problem for the right-handed power.
* Vladimir Guerrero Jr. posted a 1.418 OPS with 11 homers in 21 games at TD Ballpark and a 1.180 OPS with 10 homers in 23 games at Sahlen Field in 2021. It was clear that we needed to reset our expectations for him while treating that season as a value atypical (like 2019 with the juiced baseballs).
That said, we expect Guerrero to start producing more soon; he’s hitting .295/.382/.462 with the bases empty, but just .143/.250/.257 with runners in scoring position, despite better K and BB percentages. Sunday’s grand slam was just Guerrero’s third extra-base hit, with more than 56 hits with runners on base this season. More regression is likely to follow, including the likelihood that the Rogers Center will continue to suppress homers at such a high rate.
Guerrero’s home park might keep him from paying his ADP, but he’s a low-buy prospect in fantasy right now anyway. • Interestingly, Statcast Swing/Take Leaderboard
has been a sneaky resource for identifying emerging hitters. Some surprise standouts in 2024 include: Alec Bohm, Jurickson Profar, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Jeffers, Riley Greene, Josh Smith, Luis García Jr., Jake Cronenworth and Brent Rooker. The strong starts of Elly De La Cruz and CJ Abrams are also confirmed as real here, while Rafael Devers is revealed as a buy-low prospect in fantasy. On the other end of the Swing/Take spectrum, some of the early hitters called up towards the bottom of the leaderboard include: Randy Arozarena (who is tied for last in the league with the recently demoted José Abreu), Nick Castellanos, George Springer, Oneil Cruz ( ), Gleyber Torres, Bo Bichette and Wyatt Langford, who recently additional injury forinsult
. All of these hitters are capable of performing much better in the future, but bad luck wasn’t solely to blame for the slow start in 2024.
• Joe Ryan had a 6.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP after the All-Star break last season, but his peripherals suggested it was mostly due to bad luck; Ryan’s K-BB% was similar to the first half, but his BABIP jumped nearly 100 points while his HR/FB% doubled. This has proven true so far in 2024, when Ryan has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. He ranks seventh in K-BB% (24.7), just behind Pablo López and Cyler Glasnow. Ryan has unquestionably been helped by a favorable schedule, having faced bottom-10 offenses during five of seven games this year, but he will continue to benefit from pitching in the AL Central. THE BAT
projects Ryan to be a top-10 fantasy starter the rest of the season.
Ryan emerged as a Cy Young candidate during a season filled with early chaos. • Corbin Carroll’s shoulder is clearly a big problem. He has just eight homers in more than 450 plate appearances since being injured again in early July last season. Carroll’s average exit speed is down more than 5 mph compared to last year and is inthe bottom 6% of the league . Alarmingly, he is pulling in a fifth of last season’s fly balls also. From him decision making on the plate
also suffered a notable decline, likely due to offsets. Carroll has been moved to the bottom of Arizona’s lineup even against righties recently, so he’s an early candidate for Fantasy Flop of the Year. It is becoming increasingly likely that Carroll You will eventually need another surgery
to correct your ongoing shoulder problems. • Christian Scott generated the most smells (18) by any Mets pitcher this season during his MLB debut on Saturday. The rookie was dominating at Triple-A, producing a 31.9 K-BB% and 0.71 WHIP. Scott has a beautiful mix of four shades
and will benefit from pitching in one of the most extreme pitching parks in the league. He’s never reached 90.0 innings in a season, so his workload will be limited, but this is one of the most anticipated pitching call-ups of the season (but beware: his next matchup will be against the Braves).
Scott’s upside makes him worth 30-40% of your free agent budget. • Kyle Manzardo has hit eight home runs in his last 13 games at Triple-A and is expected to be called up to Cleveland with Steven Kwan going to the IL. The Guardians have been patient with one of their top prospects, but Manzardo’s bat appears ready after posting a 149 wRC+ in the first month of the season. He calculated the average one home run per 19 plate appearances with strong contact rates
in the minors, so Manzardo could eventually reach the middle of the Guardians’ lineup. Hopefully, Cleveland gives the rookie an extended opportunity and allows him to split 1B/DH duties with Josh Naylor. He is projected to be an above average hitter
immediately and must be a source of energy.
Manzardo is available in 78% of Yahoo leagues.
• Vidal Bruján failed spectacularly in previous MLB at-bats, but hit in the minors, where he put up monster stolen base stats. Bruján started from scratch in Miami this season and should remain in the Marlins lineup even after Jake Burger returns from the Luis Arráez trade. Bruján has 8.1 K% and 9.7 BB% in 62 plate appearances, so it’s been a highly encouraging start to 2024, even if his other numbers haven’t shown it yet.
Bruján is eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS and has real SB upside, so he’s worth adding in deeper fantasy leagues (90% available on Yahoo). BONUS – TV/Film Talk: O Tom Brady Roastit was amazing (although I missed Anthony Jeselnik). The GOAT deserves credit for subjecting himself to this abuse…”Shogun“it landed and it was one of the best shows of recent times… I was late to watch it”Silo ,” which would be are at the top of my 2023 list…”Baby reindeer “It was hard to watch at times, but it’s a wild miniseries based on a true story… Check out this good interview aboutThe curse and yours the next collaboration looks highly intriguing … M. Night Shyamalan may be hit or miss, to say the least, but I’m so interestedTrap
