It’s May 13th. We are about a quarter of the way through the fantasy baseball season. At this point, you should have a good idea whether you are a candidate or not. Of course, there is always time to fix a bad team, and a good start can still be a mirage. But we have to start investigating what is real in 2024.
Today’s topic is about the frustrating hitters, the key players who didn’t give back what we expected in March. I will try to give you an idea of why they are fighting and what their chances are of changing the situation.
As always, these are educated guesses. And it’s entirely possible that your guess is different from mine. Let’s disagree on some of these things; That’s why we have a game in the first place.
March ADP: 3
Current ranking: 182
Some things about Rodríguez are unlikely to change; the Mariners’ park will always favor pitchers, and Seattle’s lineup doesn’t offer much support. At least Rodríguez is still interested in running, with nine stolen bases already.
Rodríguez Expected statistics say he was a little unlucky, although even if he had the expected .267 or .407 batting average, we wouldn’t be having a parade. His walk rate is steady, his strikeout rate is a little high. The only surprising thing to me is the drop in Julio’s attraction rating; he dropped to 29.7% in that area after achieving 40% in his first two seasons.
My guess is that Rodríguez is missing shots that could hurt him, but that will eventually resolve itself. I doubt anyone in his league is ready to panic, but there’s too much class here not to treat Rodríguez like a future star talent. And, hell, he hit a home run on Sunday and narrowly missed the second. Maybe the big boom is coming.
March ADP: 5
Current ranking: 283
Carroll’s power dipped last year when a shoulder problem developed, and his lack of pop this year (two homers, .266 batting) makes us paranoid that the wind won’t be corrected. Although Carroll’s bat speed is good, all your most affected metrics are fixed to the left, the side of danger. His real-life average (0.201) is unlucky, but only 36 points. Carroll has earned a .553 OPS to this point.
Carrol attributes the slow start to a flat swing; After all, it’s a game of angles. Its pop-up rate is more than double last year’s rate. Its hardest-hit rate is down about 10% from last year.
Injury speculation can be tricky. If Carroll really isn’t 100%, there isn’t much incentive to tell the world. These things often come up after the season, sometimes accompanied by surgery to resolve a problem. Given that Carroll’s hitting percentage was about 100% lower in the second half of last year, I’m afraid his poor start is real enough that we can adjust to it.
If I were entering a new draft today, I wouldn’t select Carroll unless the discount applied was significant.
March ADP: 77
Current ranking: 473
This one hurts; not in my teams (I don’t have any Goldschmidts this year), but in my heart. Goldschmidt has long been one of my favorite players and he’s been in the Hall of Fame for a long time. He’s been a very good or excellent offensive player his entire career, which is why a .197/.280/.279 slash line through 38 games makes little sense. His walk rate is a little low and his strikeout rate is the worst of his career at 31.9%.
Goldschmidt homered on Sunday and drove in a much-needed two-run hit after a prolonged slump. His skid reached 0-for-32 the night before, and he struck out four times in that game before a late hit.
While we accept that player development is often not linear, player decline almost always is. Goldschmidt’s bat speed is just league average this year, and this is a age-36 season. Even if Goldschmidt’s discipline increases (one of your problems so far has been letting good pitches pass and hitting bad pitches), I don’t expect him to be better than a league average hitter.
It’s no fun playing fantasy baseball as an actuary, but it’s often the prudent thing to do.
March ADP: 14
Current ranking: 361
Somehow, the Braves are fifth in runs per game despite most of their key players getting off to slow starts. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II were slight disappointments, Austin Riley is falling (and now hurt) and then there’s Olson. After hitting 54 homers last year — the most in franchise history, which is saying something given who played for these guys — Olson is stumbling with a .200 average and four homers in mid-May.
Olson is the type of player who will likely have ups and downs as a high-ball, high-hitting hitter. And his batted-ball profile offers a lot more optimism than the other names on this list — Statcast data says he should bat .254 and slug .461. I’m not sure how affordable Olson is in a low buyout trade — it’s possible that’s impossible in a competitive league — but I suspect most of this offense will heat up over time and make pitchers pay for the slow starts we’ve seen.
I don’t know if I can, but I’d love to get some Olson stock before the story changes.
March ADP: 94
Current rating: 335
The Red Sox often get crushed when they don’t keep one of their star players, but the franchise probably did the right thing by not opening the vault for Bogaerts. The Padres likely landed an eventual albatross when they signed Bogey to an 11-year, $280 million contract in December 2022.
Unfortunately, no one thought that the air would leave the balloon so quickly. Bogaerts’ hard-hit rate is down to 23.8% (his career norm is in the mid-30s), and his batted ball sliders are all on the wrong side (exit velocity is in the ninth percentile and barrel rate is far under code).
When Bogaerts was in his salad days in New England, he always had the backdrop of Fenway Park to save him in some way. That’s not the case at Petco Park. While your expected blow It’s a bit unlucky up to this point, a 0.371 number is far from a star. Bogaerts is just 31 years old and could be a respectable veteran for the Padres for a few more years and hopefully last year’s grit will return. But you wait for a flat floor to re-establish itself; I don’t see much potential for a positive pop.
