After focusing on hitters in this column in recent weeks, this edition will be entirely focused on pitchers who can make a difference on the trade market. Compared to early-season statistics for hitters, those generated by pitchers can be even harder to trust. After all, some starters haven’t reached 10 games yet, meaning a few bad innings still have a big impact on their overall ratings.
Additionally, some starters have frequently faced the weakest lineups thus far, while others have regularly been tasked with silencing the toughest offenses.
Who to buy at the top
Yusei Kikuchi (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)
Kikuchi’s hot start to the season is fully supported by skill improvements. The lefty has posted normal luck rates (.290 BABIP, 78.6% wire rate) while taking another step forward in the control skills he improved last season, posting a 4.8 BB% this year. Statcast assigned Kikuchi a 2.77 xERA which lines up with his actual mark of 2.64. Additionally, his fastball velocity has increased slightly and is now a career-best 95.6 mph.
One final note: Kikuchi and his teammates could benefit from the fact that their home park can now be considered a pitcher-friendly spot, after playing as a neutral or hitter-friendly park at times in previous years.
Who to buy low
Blake Snell (SP, San Francisco Giants)
Snell falls into two categories in terms of low-buy players at the moment. First of all, he has struggled this year, posting an 11.57 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP in three starts. Second, he is currently on IL, which does not make him of immediate use to impatient managers. But there’s clearly a lot of upside to someone who won the Cy Young Award last season, and Snell should be given some grace for enduring a terrible start to the season after negotiating a contract through the end of March.
There’s a chance that the lack of a normal spring routine means Snell never gets on track this year. But for managers who must take the risk of turning around a struggling pitching staff, this is exactly the type of player to draft.
Josh Hader (RP, Houston Astros)
Hader becomes the first player to appear in this article twice in 2024, as his disappointing start to the season surprisingly continued until mid-May. The lefty ranks 22nd in baseball with five saves, which is largely driven by the Astros’ 17-25 record. Sure, Hader deserves some of the blame (4.74 ERA), but he’s posted a 1.59 ERA in nine starts since April 17 and hasn’t recorded a save since April 2.
To get his fantasy season back on track, Hader simply needs his talented teammates to produce narrower leads.
Who sells high
José Berríos (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)
Berríos suffered some luck correction when he gave up eight runs in 3.2 innings against the Phillies last Wednesday. But unfortunately, there could be more regression coming to his 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The right-hander benefited from a .256 BABIP and an 86.7% strikeout rate, while recording a 20% strikeout rate, 3.1% lower than his career mark, and a of 7.9%, the worst since 2020.
Berríos is a solid workhorse, but he continues to have the profile of a 4.00 ERA pitcher, which is very different from how he has performed thus far.
Reed Garrett (RP, New York Mets)
Overachieving setup machines are always among the most obvious players with high sales. That’s the case for Garrett, who ranks fourth in the majors with five wins and boasts impressive ratios (0.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). The right-hander deserves credit for pitching well to this point in 2024, and there’s likely a market to send his services to managers who are struggling with their pitching rates. His value is at an all-time high right now, as he has little chance of earning saves in the coming weeks, and his high win total is mostly a product of luck.
There are also many substitutes that can produce useful ratios and a strong kill rate. My plan with Garrett would be to use him to sweeten the pot in a 1-for-1 deal where I would get the best player.
Who sells low
Tanner Bibee (SP, Cleveland Guardians)
It is worrying that Bibee was unable to take advantage of favorable matchups. After all, the right-hander has a 4.34 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP despite making four of his nine starts against the White Sox, A’s and Tigers. Bibee is controlling the strike zone at a similar rate to last year, but hitters are throwing balls at him at a rate of 10%, which is significantly higher than his rookie season mark. I see a scenario where the 25-year-old makes some improvements in the coming weeks, but even a better version of Bibee will likely fall short of the expectations management had for him during draft season.
