Placing golf bets and creating DFS lineups doesn’t have to be that complicated.
I’m as guilty as anyone, weighing thousands of factors and combining short-term and long-term data, desperately trying to find a handful of golfers who have the best chance of winning the next event – or coming close. It’s paralysis by analysis, as the saying goes.
That’s why I streamlined my modeling process days before a new event starts. Zooming out and seeing which players are playing best is a worthwhile exercise before making your final decisions about which players to play for DFS or betting purposes. I focus here on short-term form, looking for players who have performed well in (very) recent matches.
It’s a new concept: play with the players who play the best.
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Below are the players who did this simple little exercise before the PGA Championship at Valhalla Country Club. Some fit well into Valhalla, others not so much.
Sepp Straka (7th in total strokes gained)
Only the game’s elite have gained more strokes than Straka in the last 90 days. In fact, Straka — who tied for eighth at the Wells Fargo Championship last week — has been in the top 30 in every strokes gained category except around the green since the beginning of March.
Straka, having gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven events and won off the tee in all of his appearances in 2024, profiles as a low-cost, low-lineup DFS option and a solid bet to make the cut this week .
Straka is currently +9000 to win his first major title and +280 to finish in the Top 20.
Russell Henley (14th in total strokes gained)
Henley enters the PGA Championship with two Top 12 finishes in his last two starts, including an incredible approach shot performance last week at Wells Fargo. Since early April, Henley is eighth best on this course in strokes gained on approach. Your irons are hot. Too hot.
Only 13 players in this week’s field had better total strokes gained than Henley, an accurate driver of the golf ball who should be in position to score. When Henley misses the fairway, it’s not by much. This will matter a lot with Valhalla’s rough graduate (which gets deeper the further the ball moves out of bounds).
Henley is +11,000 to win the PGA Championship and +300 to finish in the Top 20.
Keith Mitchell (15th in total strokes gained)
The visor has played tremendously well over the last 60 days. Among the players in the field this week, Mitchell is second best on approach and fifth best off the tee. Cashmere Keith is also sneaky with the driver: With an average of 301.3 yards, he is 11th in driving distance since the beginning of April.
This, along with Mitchell’s excellent long iron game, should make him a good fit for Valhalla. If you’re playing Mitchell, try not to look at his recent putting form. Our man has missed putts on the green in four of the last five events. He enters the PGA Championship as one of the worst putters on the Tour. So it goes.
Mitchell is +13,000 to take home the Wanamaker Trophy and +2,200 to finish in the top 20.
Again, just some of the best in the world who may not be players you were considering for your DFS lineup and betting card, but give them a good thought.
Enjoy Valhalla and the 2024 PGA Championship.
