Few fantasy analysts can take the heat – and deliver it – like Dalton Del Don. He’ll bring his incredible fantasy baseball takes here every week to help you keep the fire burning in your leagues. And speaking of fire…
A tale of two shortstops
Jeremy Peña was one of the best fantasy picks this year, as he returned third-round value with 220 ADP. A reworked stance/swing during the offseason saw him end a 77-game homeless drought to start the season as his hitting percentage and launch angle increased. Peña’s OK% (14.1) is simultaneously falling, leading to an expected batting average (.312) in top 4% in the league. He also has 97th percentile sprint speed, so Peña is capable of stealing more than 25 bases if he wants. He is fifth in Houston’s lineup behind Yordan Álvarez (who is about to break out) and Alex Bregman, who should start getting on base much more often in the future.
Especially considering that the league batting average is one of the the five lowest in MLB history this seasonPeña should be considered a top 12 fantasy SS going forward.
On the other hand, Bo Bichette has been one of fantasy’s biggest failures, falling outside the top 400 with an ADP in the top 35. Bichette’s .243 batting average will increase, but he doesn’t scream buy low in fantasy. He’s hitting .314 with runners in scoring position, and his batted ball profile is scary. Bichette entered Thursday with an 84 wRC+ that ranked 133rd out of 159 qualified hitters.
Bichette posted a .733 OPS with just five homers and two steals after July 8 last season (203 games), so his struggles have spanned 100 games. He continues to clean up the bat, but has only attempted one steal in the last month or so. Bichette has yet to return from Toronto this season, and Rogers Center remains to suppress the power of the right-handed since it changed its dimensions last season. Bichette will get better, but it’s probable projection systems did not take into account that he benefited 2019 fun and happy ball and then getting hits in minor league parks between 2020-2021 (Bichette hit .573 at TD Ballpark).
Peña beats Bichette for the rest of the season.
Profar among the main resignations of the season
Jurickson Profar is clearly playing over his head and is unlikely to continue to be as good in the future, but there is a lot to like about his 2024. His plate discipline is elite, and Profar’s average exit velocity has gone from previously to league final for 30% better this year. He is in the top five in Statcast Swing/Take Leaderboard, sandwiched between Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. Profar is third in San Diego’s lineup, and ZiPS projects 121 wRC+ rest of the season. He’s been a fantasy steal and arguably the biggest surprise this year.
Profar was drafted in just 2% of Yahoo leagues, but entered Friday as the 22nd fantasy player.
The singer’s recovery season is worthy of praise
Brady Singer was my most-drafted player last season (when his 5.52 ERA was third-highest among pitchers with at least 150 innings), so it was fun to see him traded this year to none of my fantasy teams. Singer’s peripherals look nearly identical to his 2022 season, with the big culprit in last year’s ERA seemingly caused by a random drop in called strikes that was an atypical career. Swing hit rate is a good statistic for evaluating pitchers, but there is more than one way to swing hitters. Singer ranks just 41st out of 77 qualified starters in SwStr% (10.2), but is 11th in CSW (30.3), ahead of Dylan Cease, Cole Ragans and Tyler Glasnow. Singer would have ranked in the top 10 in CSW in 2022 among starters if he had qualified (if he had thrown 8.2 more innings), so catching strikes is a skill he clearly possesses.
Kauffman Stadium remains a hindrance, and Singer’s fastball is hardly overwhelming, so his ERA (2.70) should rise along with his BABIP (0.277). But Kansas City strong defense will continue to help, as will pitching in the AL Central.
Singer has been called up to just 5% of Yahoo leagues, but is among the top 25 fantasy starters this season.
Lodolo has great potential if health cooperates
Nick Lodolo was pitching like one of the best starters in baseball despite suffering an injury that caused him to miss spring training before hitting the IL again. His SIERA (2.88) and K-BB% (24.3) would rank in the top 10 among qualified starters, while Lodolo’s CSW (33.2) would rank in the top three. Your Whiff% is in Top 7% in the league. Lodolo has the second most strikeouts by a left-handed pitcher throughout his first 30 appearances in MLB history. The former top-10 pick has enough good stuff to overcome an extreme hitter’s in-the-park pitching, and the NL Central will help (Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates are in the bottom 10 in wRC+).
Injury-prone Lodolo is my most-chosen player this year after endorsing him during draft season, and at least his last illness was a minor groin tweak. Lodolo’s injuries are not related to his arm, and He plans to return on Monday. As for the fantasy trading market, my friend Eno Sarris recently ranked Lodolo as his number 59 SP for the rest of the seasonbut he has the advantage of being a top 10 Fantasy starter if somehow remains healthy.
Lodolo’s ADP was out of 200, but he is a true ace who is a top-35 fantasy SP despite only making six starts this season.
Many reasons to think Gil’s success should continue
Luis Gil emerged to help lead the Yankees’ starting rotation record, the third-best ERA (2.91) in baseball, despite losing Gerrit Cole. Gil has shown better control after a shaky start to the season, resulting in a 1.80 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with a 42:13 K:BB ratio in his last six starts (35.0 innings). He will start to yield more homers (6.5 HR/FB%), especially pitching half of his games at Yankee Stadium, but Gil’s K% (31.2) would tie him with Tarik Skubal for sixth among qualified starters . Gil’s expected hitting percentage is in the Top 6% in the league. He’s legit.
Gil has been drafted in just 3% of Yahoo leagues, but is in the top 15 in Fantasy this year.
BONUS – TV/Film Talk: I really enjoyed it “To fall,” and I’ve never played video games nor is it typically my genre… “Sugar” It won’t be for everyone, but I liked the big twist that was discussed. It doesn’t come out of nowhere if you pay attention… “Tokyo Vice” It’s a fun program that I’m still catching up on. The first season would have done my list of the best of 2023 … “Shogun” has been my favorite show of the year, but I question whether Seasons 2 and 3 are a good idea, since this was not the original plan and there is no more source material… The “House on the Road” remake wasn’t an abomination, but predictably it was no match for the original which featured the GOAT Dalton… “Defrosted” it was very terrible. After seeing Jerry Seinfeld live recently (Daniel Tosh was infinitely better), it became increasingly clear Larry David was the brains behind “Seinfeld.”
