The 2023-24 NBA season continues to be a rollercoaster of ups and downs even in the playoffs, bringing with it a series of hits, misses and unexpected stars at every position. From the point guards (PG) who defied expectations to the centers (C) who dominated the paint like never before, we learned a lot to take into next year.
In this five-part From Deep series, we’ll dissect each position – PG, SG, SF, PF, and C – sharing insights into the players who made it big, those who fell short, and the newcomers who emerged onto the scene.
Let’s end the series with the centers.
The successes
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder desperately needed a big man to stretch the floor and lock down defensively, and Holmgren immediately stepped up. He wasn’t far behind Victor Wembanyama when it came to making an impact in fantasy as a rookie, finishing as second-round value. That’s two rounds better than his ADP.
He stands out in category leagues because of his efficiency, although a projected increase in scoring and rebounding also puts him in the top 50 in scoring leagues. Combining his offense and stock raises his ceiling above most fantasy centers and could see him shoot up draft boards.
Alperen Sengün, Houston Rockets
No one hit closer to his ADP than Şengün. He opened the season with an ADP of 60.5 and finished 61st.
The third-year big was on pace to surpass his ADP before suffering a grade three ankle sprain that knocked him out of the season. However, in five games in March, Şengün averaged 24/12/5 and three actions.
He is a key component of the Rockets’ bright future and will be a third or fourth round pick next season.
Daniel Gafford, Dallas Mavericks
Few have shined better this season than Gafford. A midseason trade took him from the Wizards to a Western Conference Finals appearance with the Mavs. In addition to having a remarkable 2.6 stock average, he shot 78% from the field in 21 games with the Mavs. Fantasy managers were spot on with Gafford’s ADP in point leagues (100th), but he leveled up in category leagues and finished 38th.
His chemistry as a lob threat with Luka Dončić was evident, as 52 of Doncic’s 58 assists to Gafford were on the border. His efficiency also improved, as those easy throws propelled Gafford to lead the league in field goal percentage for the first time. Despite never averaging more than 30 minutes in any season, Gafford remains effective on a per-minute basis and is in a great position to be a fantasy asset in Dallas in the future.
The misses
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
After receiving the third-most votes for Rookie of the Year a season ago, we expected Kessler to be better as a sophomore. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case, as Kessler fell to 87th in class leagues, failing to live up to his fifth-round draft status.
When looking at last year’s numbers, the blockages were there; however, he wasn’t as good around the rim and adding the three-ball hurt his efficiency. And while the minutes were comparable, he produced just seven double-doubles, compared to 20 as a rookie.
It takes time for young players to progress, especially with teams filming you and your tendencies. I spoke with Kessler over All-Star weekend and it was interesting to hear how opposing teams have adapted to his game and how he is working to improve.
He gets it, and we’ll see a better version of Kessler in year three. Depending on how the Jazz handle veterans like John Collins, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, Kessler should be a sixth- or seventh-round pick.
Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets
Injuries derailed the Hornets’ season, and Williams, unfortunately, was a part of it. He played in 19 games after being unable to return due to a persistent back injury. Fortunately for Williams, the injury did not require surgery, so he should be fully recovered by training camp. Still, he reached the eighth round of the draft and should be considered a disappointment after missing more than 75% of the season.
Williams dismissed the notion that he’s injury-prone, and I’d be fine with drafting him in the eighth or ninth round considering he averaged 13 points, 10 boards and nearly two shares when he played.
Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks
Robinson was the league’s leading offensive rebounder before suffering an ankle injury that required surgery in early December. He returned at the end of the season, but Isaiah Hartenstein had already fled the position. His rebounding and stock numbers were good, but the drop in FG percentage and scoring put Robinson outside the 170s in points and category leagues.
Fantasy managers selected him as a top 100 player, but he obviously missed the mark. The Knicks’ decision to bring Hartenstein back will dictate Robinson’s fantasy outlook next year.
The escapes
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
I discussed Wemby’s rookie year extensively this offseason because he was one of the best in basketball history. He could easily be among the hitters after finishing in the top 12 in points and category leagues and making a final second/third pick in last season’s drafts.
Wemby haven’t yet scratched the surface of their potential, so this is probably the last time we’ll see them finish outside the top two of the overall standings.
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Duren has anchored many of my teams, so it was great to see him deliver. He was in the top 10 in doubles and significantly improved his free throw percentage to 79% this season.
He’s drawn comparisons to Dwight Howard, and I see that. He just needs to get those blocks up and in no time he’ll look like a top-50 guy.
Isaiah Hartenstein, New York Knicks
A late breakout but a breakout nonetheless, the 25-year-old enjoyed his best fantasy season replacing Mitchell Robinson. Prior to the 23-24 campaign, Hartenstein had just one top-150 finish in category leagues. This season he finished in 73rd place, although he was not called up in 93% of leagues. As such, he was one of the best waiver picks of the year and will receive the scholarship on the open market this summer.
