In the early days of fantasy football, rookie receivers were an afterthought, almost a joke. You’d ignore them for the first few seasons, barely look at them for later seasons, and maybe consider them for third-year breakouts. That was the manual and almost everyone followed it.
There were occasional exceptions. Randy Moss blown away with an incredible 1998 season. Anquan Boldin broke in 2003, announcing its presence with 217 yards on opening day. There were some successes in the mid-90s, Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn and Eddie Kennison, comets in the pre-internet era when fantasy football commissioners still scored by hand, fueled by caffeine and the morning paper.
The newbie rules changed in 2014. This was the year the freshmen crashed the party. Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans were the top 10 fantasy players. Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews were reliable WR2s. And some of the quieter rookies would soon turn into stars: Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry. Sammy Watkins also had a few moments.
Let’s examine the rookie classes since then and try to figure out what, if anything, we learned and what trends might be emerging.
Class of 2015
The market tried to correct the rookie WR rules after the 2014 blowout, but the year of adjustment was a failure. Amari Cooper checked in as WR25 (a slight disappointment, as he was the fourth overall pick in the draft) and Tyler Lockett (WR35) and Stefon Diggs (WR46) were respectable, especially for players picked outside of the first round of the draft. NFL.
Four other wideouts joined Cooper in the first round of that year’s draft, and all were marginal contributors, finishing outside the top 60 at the position: DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Phillip Dorsett all at least made the field. Kevin White and Breshad Perriman had to wait until 2016, but they never became productive professionals.
There weren’t many sneak attacks on the board either. Jamison Crowder (Pick 105) ended up becoming a quality NFL player.
Class of 2016
This was another year in which first round wideouts let us down: Corey Coleman (15th overall pick) was cut after three seasons, Will Fuller (21st pick) was injured regularly during his six-year career, and Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell were busted. But this class gave us two superstars outside of the first round: Michael Thomas (Pick 47; WR9 as a rookie) and Tyreek Hill (Pick 165, WR11 as a freshman). Sterling Shepard was a quality WR4 as a rookie. Tyler Boyd eventually became a good player, but didn’t break through until his third year.
Class of 2017
Corey Davis (fifth overall pick) never became a star and Mike Williams (seventh overall pick) needed a year of adjustment. John Ross (ninth overall pick) won the combine but failed in the pros. But this preliminary class found plenty of non-first-round hits, and some of them came right away (JuJu Smith-Schuster was WR15, Cooper Kupp was WR27). Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin showed promise as rookies, but paid off in years 2-3.
Class of 2018
The NFL backed away from receivers in the draft, with DJ Moore being selected first with the 24th overall pick. Calvin Ridley got two picks later, and that was it for the first round. Ridley was solid (WR18) as a rookie and Moore (WR39) is at least worth drafting. Good things would eventually happen for Christian Kirk and Courtland Sutton, a couple of second-round picks.
Class of 2019
Oh, the famous 2019 draftthe year the non-first innings shocked the world, while the two long first innings disappointed.
Marquise Brown has been an acceptable, if erratic, professional; he was the first WR selected, pick 25. Hollywood Brown was just the WR45 as a rookie. Maybe Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will be at their best this year.
The Patriots used the 32nd pick on N’Keal Harry, a deviation from the team’s strategy – Terry Glenn (1996) was the last first-round receiver selected by New England. Harry never discovered the professional game.
But the later rounds had a lot of stars waiting to be picked, many of them making it to rounds 2-3. AJ Brown (WR9 despite modest volume), Terry McLaurin (WR24), Deebo Samuel (WR26) and DK Metcalf (WR30) were immediately relevant, and Diontae Johnson (WR40) showed promise later. Darius Slayton was a surprising success in the fifth round, a solid if unspectacular player who scored WR33 as a rookie.
Class of 2020
After all of these 2019 successes, one would expect the NFL to aggressively attack the receiver position in the draft. That’s exactly what happened, with six wideouts landing in the first round. It’s been a mixed bag, with CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk spreading their wings, while Jalen Reagor and Jerry Jeudy have been disappointments. Henry Ruggs was an unpredictable player for two years before his life took a tragic turn.
There were some non-first-rounders as well: Chase Claypool (unfortunately, a comet), Tee Higgins, Gabe Davis, Darnell Mooney, Michael Pittman Jr. Seven different rookies reached 100 points this year, led by Jefferson (WR6), Claypool ( WR14), Lamb (WR17), Higgins (WR28) and Aiyuk (WR33).
Class of 2021
This is the class which most closely resembles the 2024 receiver class – we’ve seen three wideouts land in the top 10 picks (Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith). They were all successes as professionals, even with occasional injuries and falls. Chase was WR3 as a freshman, Waddle WR21 and Smith WR30. Two other wideouts went in that first round but were taken: Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman. Hey, the future is not written.
Two eventual stars were discovered in the later rounds: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Pick 112) and Nico Collins (Pick 89). “The Sun God” was WR23 as a rookie. Collins needed development time, but the 2023 release was worth the wait.
Class of 2022
By this time, the NFL had completely pivoted in heavy drafts for the receiver, with four wideouts in the top 12 and six in the first round. Ohio State stars Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson were at their best over two years, though we wonder how much they were hampered by spotty quarterback play. Drake London has the same complaint.
Jameson Williams is still hoping for a healthy, clean season; maybe that will happen in 2024. Treylon Burks looks like a first-round bust.
There were some comments outside of the first round, although Christian Watson and Jahan Dotson were better as rookies.
Wilson (WR21) took out Olave (WR23) in year one, starting a five-year stretch that will have me overpaying for Wilson every summer. Watson drafted WR25, Pickens was WR30, London finished WR38 and Dotson was WR41. A solid year for the new kids.
Class of 2023
Four wideouts hit in the first round, although the clubs took their time: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison entered in a four-pack at Picks 20-23. Four more wideouts appeared in Round 2, highlighted by Jayden Reed and Marvin Mims. And there were two big sleepers to come: Tank Dell in Round 3 and Puka Nacua in Round 5.
Nacua was the WR5 and was the god of the season. Reed (WR18), Addison (WR19), Rice (WR27) and Flowers (WR30) justified their positions on the roster. Dell was the WR37 despite missing six games; Man, Houston was a fun team last year.
On the downside, JSN was a disappointing rookie (WR51) and we’re already wondering if Johnston (WR78) is a bust.
What does all this mean?
If we look at rookie receiver production from 2014 to 2023, we see 44 years with 100 points or more. See how it breaks down by round:
Round 1: 20 players
Round 2: 13 players
Round 3: 5 players (John Brown lost by one point)
Round 4: 3 players
Round 5: 3 players
I can’t say for sure that a Nacua or St. Brown won’t be hiding in 2024, but that’s certainly not the way to bet.
If we broadly define a rookie “hit” as 100 or more points, and a rookie “miss” as less than 100 points, here is a rookie’s hit rate per round.
Round 1: around 50%
Round 2: around 25%
Round 3: around 15%
After the third round: you are playing the lottery
While the first round has the highest strike rate, the top 10 rookie seasons in this survey have an interesting spread.
First Round: 4 players
Second Round: 4 players
Fifth Round: 2 players, Hill and Nacua
But maybe it’s a game of arbitrary endpoints. WRs 11-16 are all first round picks.
Let’s pivot to the present. Looking at the rookie class of 2024Here’s how I’m initially viewing them for Fantasy 2024, using the traffic light classification system:
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Marvin Harrison Jr. – Green Light (although his ADP has helium written all over it)
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Malik Nabers – Yellow Light (Can Brian Daboll coach Daniel Jones again?)
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Rome Odunze – Yellow Light (fantastic skills, but a lot of competition for the ball)
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Brian Thomas Jr. – Yellow Light (open to go green this summer)
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Xavier Worthy – Yellow Light (but he might be redundant with Hollywood Brown around, at least for a year)
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Ricky Pearsall – Red Light (crowded room, will probably need a year)
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Xavier Legette – Red Light (but maybe Dave Canales is a miracle worker)
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Keon Coleman – Yellow Light (not a separator, but has contested capture abilities and there is a need to target)
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Ladd McConkey – Yellow Light (could easily lead this team in targets)
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Ja’Lynn Polk – Red Light (QB and teammate Javon Baker’s uncertain play could be more interesting)
Someone I didn’t mention? I will try to keep an open mind all summer. Puka Nacua says this is important.
