Fantasy Football: Which WRs Could Be Retained, Lost in QB Wilderness in 2024?

Trade rumor spreaders and aggregators lose while sanity wins in Minnesota, as the Vikings and Justin Jefferson agreed to a mega-deal to keep the All-Pro in the fold. Jefferson received the unique type of deal that his play on the field has earned since arriving in the NFL.

When a player of Jefferson’s caliber is discovered, the only logical step is to reward him and guarantee his place on the team for as long as possible. This decision sparks a fascinating discussion about the increasing value of wide receivers in the NFL, especially considering the significant contracts they now command, even though seemingly every year we get a strong crop of new wideouts from the NFL Draft.

But the reality is that while there are a lot of quality wide receivers entering the league annually, it’s still rare that you get a transformative difference maker who is elite in all parts of the game at the position and wins at X receiver, but you can do it. of any alignment. That’s who Justin Jefferson is and that’s why this contract was a no-brainer.

You may be able to recreate his production in aggregate, but you may be able to tinker with the impact players like this have on your offense. The word transformer is the correct distinction. The conversation gets a little more interesting as you move down the league rankings, but players like CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk, who are next in line for extensions, have arguments – based on their film – that they share some of the same descriptors we have just attributed to Jefferson.

The bottom line is that you need at least three good receivers to be a dangerous offense in today’s game. This is why teams are hesitant to let guys who are a level or two below Jefferson walk out the door.

The concept this deal brings to mind is one I have discussed often: “The QB Wilderness.” It’s a term that refers to the situation in which great wideouts, no matter how talented they are, cannot stand out without a quality quarterback. They need several factors to align themselves for a healthy offensive environment, but the most significant is a quarterback who can match their level of play. Those without such a pass are left wandering the desert – in search of, at the very least, a glimmer of hope.

Jefferson has a strange conversation this year because he cuts in both directions. He is expected to play without Kirk Cousins ​​as Minnesota’s Week 1 starter for the first time in his career. This would normally qualify a player for The QB Wilderness, not that Jefferson is a “normal” wide receiver.

Even if Jefferson were headed to The Wilderness, there would be no reason to significantly downgrade him because he is a unique talent capable of having some degree of success with any passer. However, he also does not really qualify for The Wilderness because, again, we’re just looking for the hope of a desert oasis. And first-round rookie quarterbacks qualify for that rest optimism.

We don’t know how good JJ McCarthy will be in the NFL. There’s a chance that at some point early in his debut contract we’ll realize that the hope of an oasis was a mirage and that Jefferson has been wandering the desert this whole time. That’s how it works with complicated rookie quarterback duos. However, in this particular situation, the bar is low for McCarthy to be good enough to simply support Jefferson. We might be left wanting more in a few seasons, but for now, no one should put the elite down and he avoids The Wilderness.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some 2024 wide receivers hitting the on-ramp to The Wilderness, the ones who are still stuck there and who may finally be escaping after the offseason moves.

WRs Leaving QB Wilderness

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

But this time, we’re serious!

After spending his rookie season on a particularly harrowing but relatively brief stint in The Wilderness, 2023 should be a big departure for Wilson. Instead, fate was cruel, as Aaron Rodgers was ruled out of the season after just four snaps.

I’ve watched so many great wideouts play alongside miserable quarterbacks in broken offenses in the decade I’ve spent mapping receivers. The difference between Wilson’s play and his passers was one of the biggest I can remember. It was an indescribably bad situation.

The hope is that Rodgers can try again this year and deliver a solid to strong game. It’s a risky bet, as he is 40 years old and coming off an Achilles tendon injury. However, there is still hope that Wilson will enjoy a few years in the sun.

Marquesa “Hollywood” Brown, Kansas City Chiefs

Brown is a tough candidate because he has played with good defenders like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. However, he never lined up his healthy games with Murray last season and I think you can consider most of last season with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune a stint with The Wilderness.

Brown is not a No. 1 receiver and has flaws in his game. Still, he’s a fast player with a knack for separating on critical routes up the middle. It doesn’t take much work to describe why he is the go-to wide receiver in this lineup and is most capable of handling significant volume on intermediate routes.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

We’ve discussed this extensively over the past few months, but yes, Drake London is the most obvious candidate for the Wilderness quarterback departure.

London is in the enviable position of having multiple paths and possible years-long insurance against seeing The Wilderness again. Kirk Cousins ​​is the perfect candidate to lift a promising young man out of the misery of the Falcons’ quarterback situation in recent years.

If he doesn’t work out or is just a Band-Aid solution, the Falcons now also have Michael Penix waiting in the wings. Think what you want about the draft pick, but it was good news for London. The two defenders are very different, but their styles adapt well to different parts of the London game.

Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, Washington commanders

Terry McLaurin has accumulated a long list of running mates from average to poor quarterbacks throughout his NFL career. Jahan Dotson isn’t on McLaurin’s level, but he hasn’t enjoyed a healthy offensive environment at any point during his two years in the league.

Enter Jayden Daniels.

The LSU product’s biggest bursts and fantasy impact may well come from his rushing ability as a rookie, but he showed in college that he can attack defenses downfield. Both commanders can win in the same areas that Daniels liked.

Daniels played well for a vertical X in Brian Thomas Jr. at LSU and that’s McLaurin’s position. Dotson could be further maximized by running vertical routes from the slot, like Malik Nabers did with Daniels in college.

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

DJ Moore could fight with McLaurin for the rights to be crowned “The Next Allen Robinson” as the king of The QB Wilderness. Moore enjoyed what was probably the best quarterback play of his career last season in Justin Fields — and Fields isn’t even slated to start Week 1 at Pittsburgh. This tells you what you need to know.

Caleb Williams was a top prospect with a near-universal approval rating as the first overall pick. If he hits the ceiling, Moore will be a clear exit candidate. The only question in Chicago is how the targets will be divided between these three wide receivers.

WRs entering or still stuck in the QB Wilderness

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

I’m actually open to the possibility that Will Levis turns into the kind of passer who doesn’t make wide passes in The Wilderness, but he’s still relatively unknown.

Ridley has played with strong starting quarterbacks throughout his career, with Matt Ryan in Atlanta and Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. Levis has the talent to compete with these guys, but will need some development in his timing, anticipation and overall feel for the game – some of which even Lawrence struggled with last year. If Levis gets there, Ridley will be the kind of separator that makes life easier for a young quarterback. But he will also be competing with DeAndre Hopkins for targets, which makes this fantasy ranking tough to crack.

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers

Diontae Johnson’s move from Pittsburgh to Carolina didn’t come with a ticket out of The Wilderness.

Bryce Young’s performance metrics from his rookie season place him among some troubling historical names at the position. I’m open to most of this being the fault of a horrible situation with receivers who couldn’t separate, but there’s no guarantee that Young will be a league-average starter. Still, given the fact that Johnson is the type of separator Carolina lacks in 2023 and is in line for a high target share, he could still present value outside of the top 40 fantasy receivers this year.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens’ play as a straight press/beat down vertical X receiver maps well to the theoretical strengths of the new quarterbacks the Steelers have acquired. And there is no doubt that the team improved the position after Kenny Pickett exploded.

However, unless Russell Wilson or Justin Fields are a much-improved version of the players they were the last two seasons, they are still Wilderness QB options.

Pickens will offer peak weeks in 2024 and every season going forward. He has real skill on the field that is close to trump card status. He will also dominate Pittsburgh’s target share given the rest of the receiver room, but that could still only equate to 115 to 120 targets in a low-volume passing game. The Steelers will establish the run and try to hide their passers this season.

Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

Unfortunately, the last prime years of Davante Adams’ career seem destined to be spent wandering the wilderness. She never ties her luck to Josh McDaniels. Jakobi Meyers showed last year that he is a quality receiver who deserves better. He is one of the most underrated wideouts in the game.

This duo will likely see some Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew this season. My bet is that Minshew will earn the spot in training camp, but at some point, because of the hard ceiling he places on a unit, O’Connell will get some looks. Minshew is what he is at this point in his career, while O’Connell is at least a little more unknown.

Still, I can’t shake the feeling that this is the lowest-ceiling quarterback battle in recent memory.