Anthony Richardson typically plays QB5 or QB6 in drafts, but he’s my top-ranked 2024 fantasy quarterback.
Dropback fantasy points are one of the the best future indicatorIt isand Richardson just recorded the highest number of FP/DB since Lamar Jackson’s historic 2019 season. Richardson mean 29.2 fantasy points per four quarters (greatest of all time) as a rookie and matched CJ Stroud in the weekly top five despite missing most of the season. Richardson continued to show a strong ability to avoid bags like he did in college, and he posted 8.1 YPA over the last two games.
The Fantasy QB Paradox
Of course, Richardson’s incredible running ability is his fantasy cheat code – last year’s season-long pace would have led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (925), TDs (26!), attempts (170), and projected runs (111). He had three loads inside the five yard line (and ranked top 20 in red zone rushing attempts among QBs on the season) through 10 quarters of action. AR averaged an NFL-best 7.0 YPC during designed runs and doesn’t plan to change his playing style in year two.
Richardson is in the fantasy sweet spot of his career as there is no way he can execute this often as he will eventually become a better passer/processor in the future. In other words, while Richardson will certainly become a better QB for the Colts in the future, this is what a fantasy pinnacle could look like (48% of your fantasy production came from running as a beginner!).
Risk of injury
If Richardson pain in the shoulder by August I will reevaluate my QB1 rating, but he should be fully recovered in 2024. He is 6’4” and now weighs up to 255 pounds after adding serious muscle during the off-season – that’s 30 pounds heavier than the average NFL quarterback while running a 4.34 forty. Richardson is 22 years old and literally an athlete the QB position has never seen before.
All running quarterbacks come with extra health risks (to go along with more fantasy upside), and Richardson’s is built into an ADP that lasts two to three rounds after QBs with lower ceilings (more on that later).
Given his run, it’s easy to project Richardson to score the most fantasy points per game among QBs this season, so health is the main issue here. It cannot be underestimated how much every player runs a real risk of injury when discussing health and trying to predict future injuries. There is an opportunity cost to Richardson’s ADP, but he isn’t an especially early pick like De’Von Achane, and the replacement value will be there.
If Richardson loses every game between peak winning weeks in the league, quarterback is the easiest position to add depth to (assuming it’s not Superflex). There is a player who just posted the best YPA season in NFL history in an offense designed to score the most points in the league that isn’t being picked as a top 12 fantasy QB in many leagues, and there are a newbie with five advantages going even later. The quarterback has never been so deep.
Furthermore, “Injury-prone” players don’t always stay that way.
Concerns with Small Samples
All of these impressive statistics came in a small sample size, but AR plans to keep running and is in the right situation to succeed. Shane Steichen is a true QB charmer (Gardner Minshew isn’t good), and the Colts play indoors and were in the top five in plays per game (69.7) with Richardson last season. Indianapolis has one of the best offensive lines in the league, a star running back and is quietly loaded at wide receiver.
Reception perception is extremely high for Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Pittman is being taken too early in fantasy draftswhile Downs was hampered by injuries and Minshew last year and is underestimated. Rookie Adonai Mitchell slipped in the draft presumably because of character concernsbut the Colts now have another first-round talent in its large receiver room. Tight end Jelanie Woods impressed during camp and is another great athlete for Richardson to reach.
Richardson already had impressive characteristics avoiding sacks and will improve his ability to process during his second year in the league. He gained significant experience even when marginalized last yearand it’s important to remember that Richardson turned 22 two weeks ago.
He is six months younger than Caleb Williams!
The fantasy competition
Richardson is at risk for injury, but Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson also have concerns with a higher Yahoo ADP.
It’s not easy to talk bad about someone Firebaughbut Allen must overcome a heavy OC and the loss of Stefon Diggs. The Bills ranked first in Rush% and last in Pass% after Joe Brady took over play-calling last season, and this was before Diggs left. While this style helps Allen’s accelerated stats, his splits with Diggs were dramatic. Allen averaged 27.4 fantasy points, 264.8 passing yards and 2.06 passing touchdowns in 67 career games with Diggs on the field; he averaged 19.7 fantasy points, 183.9 passing yards and 1.07 passing TDs in 27 games without Diggs (RotoViz).
Allen is a beast and a better QB at this stage of his career (compared to before Diggs), and the Bills have added weapons (although rookie Keon Coleman had the second-lowest YPT among all WR draft prospects), but shouldn’t go unnoticed, the highest drafted fantasy QB lost an alpha WR and his clear favorite target. BetMGM set Allen’s over/under passing yards at 3,615.5, which is just 212.7 yards per game.
Allen averaged 7.6 rushing touchdowns over five seasons before catching 15 last year despite rushing for far fewer yards than the previous two years, so the numbers will regress in 2024. Allen hasn’t missed much time, but suffered a toe injury in 2021, a partially torn elbow in 2022 and played through a shoulder injury last season.
Pain regressed to just 7.2 YPA after losing Steichen (who left for AR) as his OC last season, when he would have ended up as Fantasy QB16 without the touchdowns. This is misleading, of course, but 13 of Hurts’ 15 rushing touchdowns came from inside the three-yard line; Jason Kelce retired and the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley during the offseason. Kelce’s Big Loss combined with the addition of Barkley should lead to fewer runs from Hurts, especially with the team’s encouragement to keep him healthy for a playoff run.
It hurts playing through an injury (as always), but your chargers and projected runs per game dropped noticeably last season. He’s battled season-ending injuries throughout his career, with last year being the first year Hurts didn’t miss multiple games (since he became a starter). He will also be learning an entirely new offense in 2024.
Mahomes is the goatbut he was just QB13 in fantasy points per game last season, and the Chiefs are more concerned about becoming the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls (with the help of an elite defense). Defenses forced Mahomes to qualify 33rd in aerial yards per attempt (6.5) last season, and Kansas City enters 2024 with continued questions at wide receiver and left tackle. Rashee Rice could be suspended indefinitely, and Travis Kelce will turn 35 this season. Newcomer Hollywood Brown is one of the most injury-prone receivers in the leaguewhile rookie Xavier Worthy weighs 165 pounds and injured his hamstring during camp. Mahomes also has no upside compared to other elite fantasy QBs.
Jackson averaged 21.1 fantasy points during his MVP campaign last year — a mark that would be considered a disappointment for Richardson in 2024. Jackson’s projected carries fell to career low last year, and that trend is likely to grow with the addition of Derrick Henry. Jackson missed 10 games in 2021-2022, so he also carries health concerns.
Allen, Hurts, Mahomes and Jackson are all fantastic players, worthy of high ADPs, but they also enter 2024 with questions.
To complete
With salivating running ability and the right coaching staff and roster around him, Richardson’s unparalleled fantasy potential outweighs the health risk.
