Getting under-drafted players who will spend the NFL season in the confines of a decidedly positive offensive environment is a nice fantasy football hack.
With this approach, there’s no need to hope and pray that a mid-round pick can produce what will be an average or downright ugly offense – one that doesn’t have a lot of stretch drives, a large number of plays per game, and generally positive offensive movement. We all end up with a player or three in these unfortunate offensive environments, but it’s never good to know how much that player will have to overcome if they want to be half-decent for our fantasy team. It’s a situation that often leads to gnashing of teeth on Sunday afternoons.
Below is a look at what I consider to be underrated players stuck in offenses that are supposed to provide the kind of environment that generates yards and points on big plays. I looked at scoring rate (the percentage of offensive plays that end in a score), expected offensive points added (a metric of efficiency), positive play rate (the percentage of plays that gain yards), and points above average per play (another efficiency metric). ) for each team.
You can learn more about these metrics here if you are curious.
2023 season
Scoring rate: 1st
Expected offensive points added: 3rd
Positive Play Rate: 4th
Points above average per play: 1st
The main beneficiaries of this absurdly positive environment will continue to be Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. The media’s obsession with the Cowboys’ contract extension machinations may obscure that fact for some.
Brandin Cooks profiles as a reasonably priced player who could reap the benefits of an efficient, passing-happy Dallas offense that ranked fourth in passing rate above expected (PROE) in 2023. From Week 9 to 18 last season, Cooks saw 23 percent of the team’s aerial yards. That may not seem like much, but only 19 wideouts have had more raw air yards than Cook in that span.
Because, you see, the Cowboys averaged 276 intended air yards per game, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL last year. Cooks’ WR60 ADP could be a great bargain for fantasy players betting on running back and looking for wide receiver value in the second half of their drafts.
Jake Ferguson Being considered the ninth tight end in the draft in no way explains the weight of the passing game that will define the 2024 Cowboys (who enter the season with the worst running back in the league). Ferguson in 2023 saw plenty of high-value opportunities: He scored 12 targets inside the 10, which ranked fourth among all pass catchers and first among tight ends.
Although his 17 percent target and his 18.3 percent targets per route covered were both underwhelming, the nature of the Cowboys’ offense generated 102 targets for Ferguson (aka Ferg Daddy). Only six tight ends had more looks. Ferguson is perhaps the best way to take advantage of Dallas’ hyper-productive, fantasy-friendly offense.
2023 season
Scoring rate: 4th
Expected Offensive Points Added: 6th
Positive Play Rate: 6th
Points above average per play: 7th
You probably don’t need to know that Lamar Jackson remains a solid — if not fantastic — fantasy selection in 2024. But what about the rest of Baltimore’s second-year offense under offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who has brought the Ravens up from the depths deeper? from Above Expected Pass Rate (PROE) to 11th highest PROE in 2023?
Zay Flores, coming off the draft board as WR25, earned a 24 percent share of the team’s targets and air yards as a rookie in 2023. He was also well above his expected fantasy production. If Monken’s Ravens offense maintains last year’s positive environment, Flowers should have every chance to break into top-20 territory. Some touchdown luck would catapult Flowers somewhere near the top 12.
I’m on record as saying Marcos Andrews going well after Sam LaPorta is the most absurd ADP I’ve seen since before I had gray facial hair. Andrews, before was caught in a violent hip attack in week 11, had seven targets inside the 10 in nine full games. He caught five for touchdowns. Andrews has seen 14 red zone reviews in his nine games. He is being undervalued until his ADPs change.
It’s not even remotely a good idea to suggest Derrick Henrique will score more than 20 touchdowns this season as Baltimore leads. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill combined for 41 runs inside the 10 last season (which led to a total of 15 touchdowns). The Ravens fell six percent below the expected pass rate in the red zone under Monken last year. Put it all together and you can get a vintage Henry season – one that makes him one of the most important players in all of fantasy football.
His change in the offensive environment can hardly be overstated. Henry last year ranked second in rushing yards — behind only Christian McCaffrey — while stuck in a Tennessee offense that ranked 30th in positive play rate and 27th in points above average per play. The Biggest Dog faced eight defenders in the box for the second-highest rate in the NFL. This makes me think.
2023 season
Scoring rate: 7th
Expected Offensive Points Added: 7th
Positive Play Rate: 15th
Points above average per play: 9th
Puka Nacua is being properly valued as the centerpiece of LA’s starting passing attack. I can’t say the same about the elderly Cooper Kupp.
Zoomers won’t draft Kupp. We know that. So I ask my millennial brethren to consider this: In the 11 games last season in which Kupp and Nacua were active, Nacua saw 92 targets to 89 for Kupp, and the wideouts had nearly identical target-to-route rates. Nacua and Kupp were neck and neck in yards after the catch per catch and yards per route run in that stretch. Kupp, despite missing three games to start the season, had more red zone targets than Nacua; Kupp’s eight targets among the 10 tied the rookie.
The Rams’ offensive environment is positive enough for Kupp and Nacua to thrive in 2024. The fact that one guy has 25 picks before the other is something to ponder this summer.
2023 season
Scoring rate: 11th
Expected Offensive Points Added: 11th
Positive Play Rate: 12th
Points above average per play: 7th
If football only had first and second downs, the 2023 Seahawks would have been unquestionably elite. Only four teams last season had a higher success rate on early downs than the Hawks, and only the Dolphins and 49ers had better early EPAs.
Geno and the boys got it on the first and second down. Third and fourth downs were another story. Seattle ranked 21st in EPA per play on later downs; only five teams had a lower success rate on these descents. Predictable throwback situations were not the Seahawks’ specialty in 2023 and it showed – and sank their season.
The team’s peripheral offensive numbers weren’t bad at all, as you can see above. If new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb — who ran a hyper-efficient, pass-heavy offense at the University of Washington — can correct last year’s third- and fourth-down deficiencies, all of the team’s core players will be big ADP values.
Both Tyler Lockett It is DK Metcalf converted 46% of their air yards to real yards last season. This marks a decline for both sides: Metcalf converted 49 percent of his aerial yards in 2022 and Lockett converted an elite 59 percent. This is a long and winding way of saying that both of Seattle’s receivers have cooled off in 2023. Their 2024 ADPs reflect just that. The Seahawks offense will be much better than fantasy writers are projecting.
Noah Fant would be another prime beneficiary of a more stable Seattle offense that continues its early excellence. Fant should see a (much) higher route rate in 2024 and enough usage that his encouraging peripherals could actually mean something in fantasy football. Fantastic profiles as the cap to grab near the end of their drafts this summer.
