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At a glance:
Record: 49-33 (3rd, East)
Offensive Rating: 117.6 (6th)
Defensive rating: 115.0 (19th)
Net rating: 2.6 (10th)
Pace: 100.5 (8th)
2024 NBA Draft Picks: 23, 33
It’s been a tough three years for Milwaukee since winning the Larry O’Brien Trophy in 2021. The following season, the Bucks were eliminated in the Eastern Conference semifinals, and Milwaukee was eliminated in the first round in two straight playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed all six games of the 2023-24 playoffs and was largely unavailable in 2022-23.
The Bucks signed Damian Lillard last summer in a blockbuster deal that was supposed to put Milwaukee at the top of the Eastern Conference. Instead, the Bucks finished with their lowest winning percentage in six seasons and ranked third. Antetokounmpo missed the playoffs, but both he and Dame logged 73 games each. Interestingly, head coach Adrian Griffin led the team to a 30-13 record before being fired and replaced by Doc Rivers, who led the team to a 17-19 record.
The Bucks have won their division for six consecutive seasons, but the Indiana Pacers could be knocking on the door after an unlikely run to the Eastern Conference finals. The Cavaliers could make some noise if the team can avoid serious injuries. The Bucks’ place in the Central Division is far from secure, and Milwaukee’s place in the Eastern Conference pecking order is tenuous, with Boston, Philadelphia and New York in position to improve in 2024-25.
While things haven’t gone as planned in the real world, Milwaukee still has some elite fantasy options and some valuable draft picks. Here’s how things pan out in 2023-24 and what fantasy managers should expect for next season.
Fantasy Spotlight: Damian Lillard
As mentioned above, Dame’s first season in Milwaukee wasn’t all sunshine, lollipops and rainbows. His 73 games played were the most since the 2018-19 season, but his averages fell in several categories. Lillard finished 21st in fantasy value per game after finishing seventh (second-best of his career) in 2022-23. He was drafted as a first-round fantasy option but ended up as a second-rounder, making him a “fantasy disappointment” candidate. He had the best season per game of anyone in Milwaukee, so he’s earned a place in the spotlight.
Lillard averaged 24.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 7.0 dimes, 1.0 steals and 3.0 triples while shooting 42.4% from the floor and 92.0% from the charity stripe. Although his overall production left fantasy managers wanting, Lillard tapped the imaginary clock on his wrist more than once, racking up 12 double-doubles and posting three 40-point games.
The Bucks aren’t in a position to make another big change this offseason, and there’s no reason to expect a decline in minutes or production in his second season with Milwaukee. Lillard missed two playoff games with an Achilles injury, but is expected to be healthy ahead of the 2024-25 campaign. Fantasy managers can draft him with confidence late in the second round.
Fantasy reveal: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Greek Freak had a “weird” 2022-23 season in which he finished outside the top 100 in fantasy value per game. That’s not a typo, but his “bad year” was horribly marred by his charity stripe shootout. Giannis led the league in FT attempts but shot less than 65% from the line. Just as Walker Kessler’s monstrous blocks increased his fantasy value, Giannis’ value fell due to his poor performance in just one category.
In 2023-24, he was back in the third round and finished 32nd in fantasy value per game thanks to a drop in FT attempts and a small improvement (65.7%) in line efficiency. He averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists (a career-high), 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks. His efficiency at the line improved marginally, but he shot a career-best 61.1% from the field. He has now shot at least 27/11/5 for six consecutive seasons and has averaged at least one steal and one block in eight of the last nine.
Overall, fantasy value per game is a good barometer for how a player is performing relative to his peers, but simply looking at this number doesn’t tell the full picture. Antetokounmpo is easily a first-round draft pick every season, and the managers who get him there understand his limitations in the FT% category. Those who pick him will likely employ a punt-build to mitigate this poor production, and Giannis was the third-best Fantasy player in a punt-FT% build. He is still in his prime and should be placed in the top 10 without hesitation.
Fantasy Disappointment: Khris Middelton
Coming off an injury-plagued 33-game season in 2022-23, Middleton’s fantasy stock has declined heading into the 2023-24 campaign. He was drafted in the seventh round on average and finished 90th in fantasy value per game. He was available more often, but still played in just 55 games thanks to more injuries.
Middleton averaged 15.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.3 dimes, 0.9 steals and 1.7 triples while shooting 49.3% from the floor and 83.3% from the range. charity. He averaged just 27.0 minutes per tilt, slightly above his 24.3 average from the previous season. After eight consecutive seasons in Fantasy’s top 65, Middleton finished 90th or worse in two consecutive seasons.
With Giannis injured in the playoffs, Middleton stepped up and averaged 24.7 points, 9.2 rebounds and 4.7 dimes, scoring 42 against Indiana in the WHITE Game and showing how good he can still be. The problem with his flashes of greatness is that they no longer seem sustainable. Fantasy managers should approach Middleton cautiously in 2024-25 fantasy drafts and target him toward the top 100. Taking him before then represents a big risk.
Fantasy Recaps/Predictions
Brook Lopez: I once called Brook Lopez “the most boring player you can draft in fantasy basketball,” and I will continue that into the 2024-25 season. There’s nothing interesting about this guy, but he’s always available and elite in a division where production is scarce. He might be boring, but he’s certainly worth picking in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.
BroLo finished 47th in fantasy value per game in 2023-24 behind 12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.4 blocks and 1.9 triples. His blocks and three-point shots were the second most of his career, and he played in 79 games. In six seasons with the Bucks, Lopez played in at least 70 games four times and at least 68 games five times. He was a top 100 player in five of them and a top 50 player in four. Lopez has hit at least two shots in 56 games this season. He just turned 36 in April, but Lopez looks like he still has enough left in the tank to be a worthy fantasy option for his blocks alone.
Bobby Portis: Big Bobby P took a step back in 2023-24 and finished with averages of 13.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.2 triples. He averaged just 24.5 minutes, and aside from his steals, all of his counting stats were their lowest in three years. Fortunately for the Fantasy managers who drafted him, he was available for all 82 regular season games. He finished 108th in fantasy value per game and 64th overall.
Portis enjoyed success in his own right throughout his tenure with the Bucks, and finished in the top 125 in fantasy value per game in every season he played with Milwaukee. However, he is at his best when Giannis Antetokounmpo is unavailable.
“This is for you, Hubie!”
I loved this moment from Bobby Portis, who finished with 31 points in the Bucks’ win over the Suns. pic.twitter.com/OTMfSeoYm4
-Malika Andrews (@malika_andrews) March 17, 2024
Portis averaged 16.7 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.4 dimes and 1.1 steals in the last nine games of the season (regular season and playoffs) with Giannis out, and in the last three seasons, he has averaging 17.7 points and 10.4 rebounds in 37 of those games. Portis should be considered late in 2024-25 fantasy drafts as a late-bench option who can put up strong numbers when inserted into the starting five.
Malik Beasley: Beasley had the second-best fantasy output of his career, finishing the 2023-24 campaign ranked 154th in fantasy value per game. He scored 11.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals and 2.8 triples in 29.6 minutes per game. The minutes were the second-most of his career, and he made at least 2.8 three-pointers for the fourth consecutive season. Beasley was available for 79 games and provided quality production from beyond the arc. In addition to his strong production in that category, he wasn’t a great fantasy option and could be left on the ropes outside of the deepest leagues in the 2024-25 fantasy drafts.
Restricted Free Agents: None
Unrestricted Free Agents: Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Jae Crowder, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Danilo Gallinari
