Fantasy Football Take-Shopping: Who could be the biggest winner on the Eagles offense with the addition of Kellen Moore?

It’s June. No one has or needs the “test answers” ​​yet – to use a silly analogy that somehow makes the unserious quest to understand and project NFL teams and players seem like a profound quest.

We are writing thoughts in pencil and just shopping for now.

This is the perfect setting to discuss one of the most difficult puzzles to solve with the current limited offseason information we have: How will Kellen Moore’s offense mesh with the Eagles’ personnel?

Philadelphia boasts a star-studded roster on offense that should be strong in the trenches despite the loss of Jason Kelce, but the original core of players was present during an unprecedented collapse in the second half of last season.

Moore has generally been considered an attention-getting player, but he is at an inflection point in his career based on 2023 performance; his tenure with the Chargers was anything but successful, while his former team in Dallas enjoyed a strong season after Mike McCarthy took over all game-calling duties.

Essentially, these two parties need the best from each other in a critical season for this franchise. You can tell yourself a story about how this works perfectly, but at the same time, the ways in which it doesn’t work are equally apparent. This one could go either way. As such, it is critical to examine the key players and units involved here to decipher the range of results.

The racing game

It’s a particularly fascinating time to examine the Eagles’ running game. Not only because of Kelce’s departure and how it will affect his Tush Push short yardage success, but also because this front office just made an out-of-character move to pay a running back big money.

Howie Roseman typically sets up backfields with low-cost moves to form a team. Signing Saquon Barkley to be a workhorse with a top-five positional salary is well beyond expectations.

Philadelphia will put Barkley at the top of a desirable running ecosystem. The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing success rate and rushing EPA over the last two seasons combined. They had a great loss to Miles Sanders, who failed in Carolina, and D’Andre Swift just had a career season in this backfield. The Eagles have a proven track record of elevating backs.

The fact that that the team looked for a workhorse who should make a difference in the position and tell us something.

The Eagles have primarily been an out-of-zone running team. The Eagles ranked eighth in zone run rate (51.4%) in 2023, according to Fantasy Points Data, but 18th at 44.7% the year before. Moore’s Chargers are at 44.5% in 2023 and his Cowboys are at 44.8%. We’re on the same page about how we assume this racing game will be structured with a varied, multi-concept approach. Without a doubt, the offensive line talent and auxiliary blockers in Philadelphia are closer to Moore’s units in Dallas than the Chargers depleted last season.

Barkley isn’t coming off his best season amid a broken Giants offense, but it’s worth noting that in his dynamic 2022 campaign, he was much more productive on man/gap scheme runs than zone. According to Fantasy Points data, Barkley posted a 54.8% success rate on gap runs and 36.8% on zone runs. The fact that we’ve seen the Eagles and Moore be able to mix and match their run game ideas is a positive for Barkley’s outlook.

The Eagles front office wanted to target a defense that could better guard their already efficient running game of the past. Part of that reasoning may have been that Barkley allowed them to be a more explosive, “for you” power run game after they skewed more finesse in 2023.

Barkley will require a second-round fantasy investment this season, but the more I examine this part of the marriage between Moore and the Eagles, the more I can see the positive side of this part of the offense.

The quarterback

Here we come to a much more exciting and complex assessment. The last two quarterbacks we’ve seen play in Kellen Moore’s offense are Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert.

It’s hard to overstate how different these players are from Jalen Hurts.

The Eagles’ passing game has been very good during Hurts’ tenure as starting quarterback, but anyone can see that they hit a plateau last season. The old offense’s static route concepts were part of the problem, but Hurts wasn’t always willing to enroll in the middle of the field. His plan against pressure was often lacking and the results were a total disaster when faced with the blitz. This is an interesting part of the discussion to consider with the retirement of Kelce – who handled most of the calls and checks on the line – coinciding with the hiring of a new coordinator.

Kellen Moore typically entrusts his quarterbacks with running the line of scrimmage, making sound checks and sounds at the line. His playbook is full of full-field readings and play-action concepts below the center that take advantage of the middle of the field. Frankly, none of this resembles how Hurts performed as a starter in the league. But this is a question of “He can’t do this”, “He hasn’t yet evolved to be able to do this”, or “He just hasn’t been tasked with doing this yet in his career?”

Moore’s arrival sets a clear inflection point in Hurts’ development. It’s sharp enough to not try to completely fit a square peg into a round hole. There will be a certain level of attack on the quarterback. However, if Moore is going to maintain 60%-70% of his typical design and attacking philosophy, we’re going to need to see a very different version of Hurts than the one we got throughout his career.

This could be a good thing.

Change and evolution were needed in the Eagles offense. What worked during the best days of 2022 could not be the norm forever. What Moore will bring from a structural standpoint is crucial to maximizing this talented roster. Hurts just needs to be able to take his game to new heights in pure throwback situations in a more traditional NFL passing game. If he can do it, this could be the Eagles’ best offensive season in the last five years and their life will be a lot easier. If he’s stuck at the same level we saw during his successful run as a starter, there will be an oil and water effect in this marriage between playmaker and passer.

Pass hunters

The final part of the wedding that should be discussed is what happens in the large reception room. In both of Moore’s last stops, we saw the best wide receiver on the roster maximized by moving around the formation with heavy use of slots to give the quarterback layup targets. Much of what CeeDee Lamb was tasked with in Dallas mapped well to Keenan Allen in Los Angeles.

Either AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith could play this position, but my guess is Brown will take over the majority of this role.

Smith has been a pure perimeter player during his time with the Eagles and at Alabama, drawing most of his plays at the X receiver position. Brown can and does win at that position as well. However, he brings slot versatility from his college days and is the type of rare physical player you want to put in motion on crossing routes and run-after-catch opportunities as much as you want him to win against coverage. press on vertical routes.

Of the two-star receivers, Brown is the better overall player and brings more role versatility.

Brown won’t be used quite like Lamb or Allen were in Moore’s previous stops, but if he runs more of those layup routes over the middle, and Hurts develops as a passer there, Brown could have the best year of his career. Remember the numbers Brown put up to start last season? There’s no reason we can’t see them extended for a full season.

Smith’s role in this should not be underestimated. Part of the problems in the Chargers’ and later Cowboys’ passing games under Moore is that they didn’t have a vertical outside receiver who could consistently beat man coverage. These plays were there to be made and the route concepts were good; the players just couldn’t do it. That won’t be a problem for the Eagles. Smith’s specialty is separation and route running. So while he may not get the same layup targets that Brown projects in this scheme, he will be just as critical in pushing the passing game toward its ceiling.

There won’t be any kind of discount for Brown while he’s in the prime of his career, but Smith currently ranks outside the top 20 receivers in top-ball drafts. After a slightly disappointing season last year that had little to do with him and more to do with the Eagles’ offense hitting roadblocks, he could be a solid value in 2024 if this all pans out for Moore and his new team.