This NBA offseason is raising alarms for some veteran players.
With poor production, nagging injuries and growing competition, the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Malcolm Brogdon, John Collins and Clint Capela are feeling the pressure. In this article, I will explain your situations and what it means for your fantasy teams.
After falling out of favor in Atlanta, Collins resurfaced in Utah last season. He finished the season ranked 76th in category leagues after producing 15.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 threes and 1.5 shares with an efficient shooting split of 53/37/80. That’s a considerable amount when considering his ADP of 103.
However, his underlying metrics reveal a veteran who can still put up numbers but won’t have an impact on wins. The Jazz were -4.9 with Collins on the court, but his time alongside Walker Kessler was more concerning, totaling -21.4 in 174 possessions. Collins’ contract is also substantial – he was owed $26 million in ’24-25, with a player option in ’25-26. The Jazz can keep him for now, and given the ongoing rebuild, Walker Kessler or Taylor Hendricks will push him next season.
This will happen in two ways. If Kessler and Hendricks have strong summers and enter training camp as the presumptive frontcourt, it will put Collins in a reduced role off the bench. Or Collins continues to start at the center position to showcase him for a potential trade to a team that can absorb the remainder of Collins’ nasty deal.
In fantasy terms, don’t overdraw Collins, knowing two talented youngsters are waiting in the wings.
The Knicks are at a crucial point. They could spend big in free agency to extend the window of this current iteration that has seen them climb to second in the Eastern Conference and fall just shy of an Eastern Conference Finals berth. When healthy, Robinson’s defense and offensive rebounding are game-changing. But therein lies the problem: he can’t stay healthy.
And now that Robinson recently underwent ankle surgery, the Knicks have to decide whether to bring back Isaiah Hartenstein, a direct threat to Robinson and one of the best waiver wire options for the 2023-24 season.
Hartenstein is an unrestricted free agent this summer, but he performed better than Robinson in several notable areas last year. Although they shared comparable rebounding, stealing, and blocking rates, Hartenstein was a much better passer, posting a 13.5% assist rate compared to Robinson’s 3%, and had a higher player efficiency rating (PER) and percentage of true shots than Robinson.
It’s not that Robinson will be traded, but there is a significant chance the Knicks decide to re-sign Hartenstein for insurance purposes. Hartenstein is rumored to be seeking a new deal in the range of $14 million annually, so who knows? He may decide to go elsewhere, but Robinson will look over his shoulder if he doesn’t.
The Hawks are eyeing Alex Sarr as the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, which should spell trouble for Capela’s minutes and fantasy value. Already battling with Onyeka Okongwu in the frontcourt, Capela has been on the trading block for some time and this could be the final blow to oust him if Sarr joins the mix. With younger, more promising players vying for time on the court, Capela’s time is up, and I expect the Hawks to continue seeking trade partners for the consistent double-double threat.
It’s hard to believe Wiggins was an All-Star in 2022. He hit rock bottom last season, putting up the worst numbers of his career. Wiggins was outside the top 300 for most of the year and lost his starting position early in the season because of his poor play. The Warriors are going in a different direction, moving away from older veterans to a younger foundation to rejuvenate the franchise around Stephen Curry as he approaches the twilight of his career.
Wiggins is undraftable in fantasy, and I doubt the Warriors can get much return on him if they try to trade him. His value is at an all-time low. Still, if he stays with the Dubs, I expect Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga to get rookie extensions, paving the way for more minutes and opportunities. Wiggins and Klay Thompson appear to be on their way out.
Another frequently injured player, Brogdon was doing well for the Blazers even when many, like me, expected him to want to leave and become a contender again. That didn’t happen, but his late-season tanking spree hurt fantasy managers. Scoot Henderson improved as the season progressed and will be the starting point guard next year.
So where does this leave Brogdon? He will come off the bench as he has in the past and serve as one of the vets in the locker room until he nails his desire to be traded to a contender. In the meantime, I don’t expect him to be worthy of a late pick unless Anfernee Simons or Henderson get hurt. I might be interested if he was moved to a team where he could see minutes in the 20s and produce.
