Fantasy Football Take-Shopping: What will the Dolphins’ running back rotation look like?

It’s June. No one has or needs the “test answers” ​​yet – to use a silly analogy that somehow makes the unserious quest to understand and project NFL teams and players seem like a profound quest. We are writing thoughts in pencil and just shopping for now.

This is the perfect setting to discuss one of the most difficult puzzles to solve with the current, limited offseason information we have: What will the Dolphins’ running back rotation look like?

Miami was one of the best environments for running back production last season. The team ranked fifth in EPA rush and success rate. I often argued last offseason that Mike McDaniel’s second-year offensive setup in Miami would be a new emphasis on the run game. That was the case, and McDaniel found immense success betting on the Dolphins’ ground game. It was a source of sustained production to keep the offense on schedule and provided big turnaround plays on the field. According to Fantasy Points Data, Miami ranked third in explosive rushing rate and led the league with 6.16 yards per carry on concept zone runs.

This strategic shift in the Dolphins’ offensive approach has had a significant impact on the running backs’ fantasy success, making them valuable assets.

Raheem Mostert was a revelation as a late-round pick, finishing the year as RB2, behind only Christian McCaffrey. Rookie De’Von Achane wasn’t a full-season option like Mostert, but provided similar upside. He was the RB4 in scoring per game last season and was one of the campaign’s best waiver wire additions after his outrageous Week 3 performance against Denver (233 yards from scrimmage with four total touchdowns).

As we turn the page to 2024, there are many variables to consider when analyzing this backfield. For starters, the interior offensive line took some hits in the offseason and the resource-poor Dolphins didn’t make significant moves to address it. In fact, they spent a draft pick to add yet other quick name for this rotation in Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright. Somewhat quietly, the defense could take a step back with the departures of Vic Fangio and Christian Wilkins, coupled with questions about the health of their edge rushers, after the unit helped provide some quality first-run scripts in the middle of the season.

It’s important to weigh all of this as we discuss every Dolphins run back to fantasy this season. This is especially the case when the current top-ball ADP aggressively rates these players in a way that in no way reflects what last season’s results were like.

De’Von Achane

Any kind of analysis of De’Von Achane from a fantasy perspective will generally include the “per game” caveat I mentioned above. The rookie played 11 games and started only four. From Weeks 6 to 12, he played a total of three snaps. His first season was full of injuries that stalled his progress.

When Achane is on the field, there is no doubt that he is one of the most dynamic weapons in the game.

Achane led the SEC in 2022 in yards per carry, which immediately translated into his first season in the league. . Yards per carry may be loud, but any stat involving explosive running ability will have Achane as one of the highest-ranked, if not the highest-ranked backs.

There is no denying that Achane is a great gaming machine. He could be one of the most dangerous defenders in the league due to his speed, agility and Miami’s dynamic running ecosystem. If his best starting ball ADP is any indication, you will be asked to pay for that skill this season. Achane comes off the board as RB7 and 20th player overall, which is…aggressive.

The pros are easy to see for Achane, but what got me a little stuck on this ADP is that the cons are very easy to point out. At 5-foot-10 and under 190 pounds, Achane doesn’t present himself as a traditional defender. He recorded just two games last year with more than 15 runs, and both were blowout wins (against Denver and Washington). Of course, Achane is so dynamic that he can produce outrageous results in 11 or 12 touches, as he did in Week 4 against Buffalo (120 yards from scrimmage with two touchdowns) or in Week 5 against the Giants (156 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown), but that may not be all you remember. After putting up significant numbers in the Week 13 win over Washington, Achane had a three-week stretch where he averaged just under 11 touches per game and never managed 7.2 fantasy points.

Unless his role changes in Year 2, these performances will always be present in Achane’s range of results. That’s a little more volatility than many want in their Round 2 selection.

This role change will be a key variable. Sure, we can trust Achane’s unique explosive running ability, creating high efficiency every season by diving, but adding more touches to his workload should be a given on his ADP. It appears the Dolphins have a clear plan for that as well. that the two goals given to Achane this summer were to “get stronger to better withstand incoming hits in the NFL and improve his running to catch the ball more often in the passing game.”

That second one is attractive to me. Miami has a pair of star receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but something of a target void beyond them. Running backs operating in the slot or out of the slot are often an OTA-driven mirage that doesn’t work in real games, but Mike McDaniel is creative enough to make this a rare exception. And in reality, we’re just looking for Achane to average four to five receptions per game combined with his explosive running ability to make the math work.

Achane doesn’t present himself as the typical workhorse entering the second round of fantasy drafts and will always bring inherent risk. If he can stay healthy and get a few more touches, preferably in the passing game, for his projection, his unique profile could turn into a positive rather than a problem.

Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert was one of the best picks you could make in last year’s draft. He wasn’t a “play-by-play” trader or someone who simply got boosted in the overall score because of some great run he had. Mostert was the leader in a great attack and was successful in every stretch of the season. This was mainly because he was a force to be reckoned with in the scoring department.

He led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns, 13 of which came inside the 10-yard line, despite being outside the top 18 quarterbacks in the red zone. As a team, Miami had 19 rushes for 14 touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. The ground game was the finisher last season, and Mostert often delivered the final blow.

Mostert won’t run as well in the touchdown column again, but he won’t just disappear from this offense either. He has been excellent in this system over several seasons and Miami invested in him with a contract. With all the discussion we just discussed about Achane not being profiled as a true asset back, Mostert is all but guaranteed to keep a significant portion of the team’s carries even if he cedes some work to Achane.

With all that in mind, his first-best ball ADP, 93rd overall and RB30, is quite mysterious. This preliminary positioning essentially implies that he will get hurt. He has a long injury history and plays the most injury-cursed position in sports, so it’s possible, but ADP paints it as a certainty. Whenever the community is set on something that is almost impossible to predict, it is usually a good idea to take the opposite position.

At that depressed ADP, no one is asking you to believe that Mostert will have a season that remotely resembles 2023. It’s almost entirely writing off Mostert as a critical and useful player for the 2024 Dolphins and one who we know has huge contingent upside if Achane wastes time. This seems silly.

Jaylen Wright

The Dolphins changed that equation a bit when they couldn’t resist the shiny object and pulled off another quick comeback on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright is a bit creative when it comes to all the nuances of playing running back in a true pro-style offense, but he’s the type of athlete this team loves. He brings another layer of energy at 210 pounds and has a 4.38 speed in the 40-yard dash. He seems like an ideal candidate to be Raheem Mostert’s long-term replacement once developed. This “long term” part is the critical point.

While talented, Wright may not be ready to rock as a rookie. He comes from a wide-open Tennessee offense whose spread formations and huge gaps simply don’t mesh with the league. He will have to work hard to bring his vision and cutting ability to NFL speed and that could take some time, forcing a redshirt season.

Early best-ball writers strongly disagree with that assessment, as Wright is moving to RB47 now. I see the upside in this offense, but I find it incredible that he is just 17 spots behind a proven veteran who is coming off a dynamic season on this same team.

If Wright is valuable in fantasy this season, one or possibly both Mostert and Achane didn’t deliver the season we hoped for. Otherwise, I have a hard time imagining this rookie carving out a big enough role to divert work away from his teammates on an offensive unit that won’t skew what conservative in his run/pass ratio.