José Abreu built an excellent career. He was the 2020 AL MVP. He drove in 100 or more runs in six seasons, batted over .300 four different times, led the league in hits, RBI and slugging percentage. He was part of three All-Star teams and won three Silver Slugger Awards.
And today he’s a free agent in one of my top leagues, courtesy of an offer from me. One of the biggest secrets to being a good fantasy manager is knowing when to move on.
The first thing to accept about moving forward is that it is an inexact science. It’s possible, maybe even likely, that Abreu could be added somewhere else in the 15-team league where I just left him. He’s a big name. He’s tied to the Astros’ offense, a deep group. Maybe my draft mistake will turn into someone else’s victory.
But as we approach the topic of cutting fantasy players, let’s start with the first essential truth: Oftentimes, the biggest fantasy mistake a manager can make is being too scared. to make a mistake. And if you never release a player who later accumulates fantasy value elsewhere, you’re playing too conservatively. You need to trust your instincts. If you are unable to decide until definitive proof appears, you will be consistently defeated by your more aggressive rivals.
There are logical reasons for an Abreu cut. He is in his age-37 season and is coming off a lost year: .237/.296/.383. All Your Baseball Savant Sliders are fixed on the left side, the sinister side. Abreu had 90 RBI last year, backed by Houston’s excellent offensive hangover, but he’s no longer enjoying the same lineup. The Astros also have a new manager; Dusty Baker retired, with Joe Espada taking over.
The first two weeks of the season were ugly for Abreu: .111/.180/.133, two walks, 14 strikeouts. He had four singles and a double, in one run. Meanwhile, an interesting first base prospect Joey Loperfido is killing it at Triple-A: 10 homers in 14 games, .333/.429/.895 slash. And maybe the Astros can’t wait long to try something else; they got off to a confusing 6-11 start.
Abreu is signed through the 2025 season, earning $19.5 million in each of the next two years. But at some point, Houston will need to consider this as a potential sunk cost. Every win matters, especially in a vastly updated AL West. Houston has won this division in six of the last seven seasons, but is only a slight favorite over Texas and Seattle at the moment. (I’m also not sure the market is right; I’d prefer the Rangers).
I know most of my readers don’t play in leagues as deep as my 15-team example; That’s why Abreu’s roster rate currently sits at a modest 31%. For many of you, Abreu was someone you already cut or perhaps someone who went undrafted in your league. You may be a few steps ahead on this one, and for that I salute you.
Who else might we consider abandoning? Start with some closers gone wrong. José Leclerc has been a mess all season and the Rangers have already moved him away from a high-leverage job. There are several plausible replacements for the ninth inning, including David Robertson and Kirby Yates. I can’t understand why Leclerc is still listed in 60% of Yahoo pools.
Abner Uribe is a more proactive drop, although his lineup is similar to Leclerc’s – Milwaukee’s temporary approach is 64%. But Uribe has had two straight saves and has a 7.50 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. The Brewers consider themselves contenders, which means Uribe likely has a tenuous grip on the job. And the hope is that Devin Williams (back) can return by the All-Star break.
How many starts will you give Triston McKenzie? He was terrible in his first three innings (6.23 ERA, 1.77 WHIP) and walked 12 batters against just five strikeouts. Your fastball dropped to 91.0 mph, and he only gets it right 5.6% of the time. I don’t know anyone who can be successful with these peripherals. McKenzie gained traction last week in fantasy, but is still carried on 68% of Yahoo teams.
Hunter Brown was a therapeutic drop for many Yahoo managers last week after allowing nine runs in a dismal inning in Kansas City. Brown hasn’t recorded more than 12 strikeouts in any of his three starts, and obviously you can’t get wins with that profile. The Astros could consider demoting Brown if he doesn’t show something this week, and the matchup couldn’t be more unpleasant – Atlanta faces them on Tuesday. Brown still holds a position in more than half of Yahoo’s leagues.
Normally I’m making additions/removals with the idea of improving my team, but sometimes it’s nice to add something new to the squad. Occasionally I drop a player because it also limits my portfolio’s liability to that player; It’s a diversification move. I also accept that it is logical to sign a slumping player before cutting the cord, but if you are in a heady, experienced league this often won’t work. Sometimes you just need to hit the release button and accept that someone else might try a positive move in the future.
Once again, I ask you: don’t play with fear. Trust your instincts. You can’t wait for proof in this game.
