Even by the standards of skilled NFL players, DK Metcalf is an atypical and unreliable athlete. Just an outrageous human being.
Standing 6 feet tall and weighing over 200 pounds, Metcalf has cartoonish jumping ability and scorching game speed:
He’s just not a normal guy. Any time Metcalf gets his defensive back off balance and slanted, this guy is really cooked.
In addition to being a verifiable highlight machine, Metcalf is also a decently talented pass catcher. He surpassed 1,000 yards in three of his five seasons and never finished with fewer than 900. Metcalf also made 43 calls at home in 82 career games.
The one thing DK hasn’t given us yet – and this is certainly not a criticism – is a top-notch supernova fantasy season. He was fantastic in 2020, surrendering 1,303 yards and 10 scores on 83 receptions, but failed to crack the top five at his position that season and failed to reach the rarefied air occupied by Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Digs.
Metcalf obviously spent his entire career sharing the field with Tyler Lockett, another of the best receivers of this era, and he never played on an offense that attempted 600 passes in a season. So he hasn’t exactly had an easy path to getting over 150 targets, which is the volume typically needed to challenge overall WR1 status.
But if Metcalf ever finds himself in a system that truly feeds him elite volume, there is no doubt that he has the skills and characteristics needed for a breakout season.
And that brings us to new Seattle OC Ryan Grubb, who previously held the same role at the University of Washington. You may remember that the Huskies’ offense was an absolute Death Star in each of the last two seasons under Grubb, and under Michael Penix Jr. Last year, the Huskies were second in the country in passing yards per game (343.7) and were first in the previous season (369.8). Washington also ranked in the top five in total pass attempts under Grubb in consecutive seasons. Penix averaged 10.7 air yards per target last year, so Washington’s passing game had a persistent and dangerous dimension downfield.
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith appears excited about the new attack as a fit for his gameIt is Metcalf is clearly on board also. If Grubb can effectively eliminate aspects of his passing attack that likely won’t work at the NFL level (or that his team can’t hope to block), it’s not hard to imagine huge statistical seasons from Seattle’s standout receivers.
Grubb already favorably compared Metcalf to Roma Odunzefor what it’s worth:
“You got the burly ‘X’ in DK and Rome. I think that’s what’s amazing about Rome, and when I watch DK, I think the same thing – these guys aren’t just (straight) runners,” Grubb said. “These guys are (running) crossing routes, they’re in the middle of the open field, they’re sitting in zones. They’re really versatile for big guys.”
Odunze caught 92 balls for 1,640 yards and 13 scores with the Huskies last season, so that’s definitely the name we want to see associated with Metcalf. It’s also the obvious comparison from lineup to lineup.
Of course, it’s recklessly optimistic to assume a perfectly smooth transition to an entirely new offensive system, even for a group of seasoned veterans like Seattle’s team. We are not prepared to guarantee a career year for DK.
We will, however, allow for the possibility of Metcalf unlocking another tier of fantasy achievements in his team’s new offense. When a player with his rare talent suddenly finds himself in a (perhaps) richer offensive environment, he should become a target for aggressive fantasy managers.
To this point, early drafters seem to expect nothing more than the same old season from DK, selecting him as the WR22 in an average draft. If his ADP actually holds in this neighborhood, he will offer significant profit potential.
