This is the second part a new series which will examine players who are difficult to classify. Today we are looking at the pros and cons of three wide receivers.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
PROS
Pickens’ full-season pace without Diontae Johnson on the field last season was 72 receptions for 1,517 yards and nine touchdowns on 140 targets. He recorded a Target of 38.4% in the first reading rate in those four games without Johnson, when Pickens’ targets per route execution rate (24.1%) was among the top 20, and its yards per route run (2.93) was in the top five. The target portion of Pickens’ end zone also jumped to 42% with Johnson off the field. Choices yards per target (10.27) ranks second among all wide receivers over the past three years, and now he could play without Johnson for a full season.
Additionally, Russell Wilson will be an update regarding Pittsburgh’s quarterback play last season, as Kenny Pickett has the lowest TD% (1.8) among 391 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts in NFL history. Pickens placed in the top 20 in ESPN open scoring last season, and offensive coordinator Matt Canada is gone, so the broad can finally run routes in the middle of the field.
CONS
Pickens has yet to shoot 22% in any season of his career and is a great merchant. He was in the 88th percentile in yards per route run last season, but just 62nd percentile in first downs per route runwhich is best for predicting next year’s fantasy stats.
While any OC is likely an upgrade over Canada, Drake London’s fantasy coaches had a lot of issues with Arthur Smith’s plays (and results), and last year’s Falcons had by far the lowest above-expectation pass rate (-9.7%) in the league. It is also possible Wilson is completely washedand Justin Fields could become a problem.
VERDICT
Pickens has flaws in his game, but there is real potential entering Year 3. He is quite capable of scoring more touchdowns, even in a shaky offense with questions at quarterback. With Johnson in Carolina and an incredibly limited depth chart (Van Jefferson, rookie Roman Wilson) behind him, Pickens’ upside outweighs his risks.
Pickens is a fantasy target and my WR22, who is six spots ahead of his expert consensus rating.
PROS
Watson led Green Bay receivers in snaps, targets, yards, touchdowns It is more when healthy during Weeks 4-13 last season. He saw the most targets and dominated the Packers’ air yards when Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Watson played together. Watson led the NFL in end zone target share when on the field and finished between the league leaders in EZ targets despite playing just nine games last year, which helped him average the third most anticipated fantasy point per target since entering the league.
Watson finished 12th in yards per run as a rookie and is on the rise in Green Bay’s offense, and he worked with hamstring specialists during the off-season to stay healthier.
CONS
Watson has a poor health history while missing 11 games in two seasons in the NFL, and his coach admitted “time will tell” whether they managed to control their persistent hamstring problems. The Packers are also loaded at wide receiver; Doubs took over as the team’s No. 1 receiver in the playoffs when a lame-duck Watson scored just three field goals in two games. Reed is possibly an emerging starwhile Dontayvion Wicks need to see more of the field in 2024. Green Bay also has two pass-catching tight ends, while Jordan Love was overly dependent on big plays last season and is slated for touchdown regression.
Love took from afar your lowest passer rating (69.8) when targeting Watson among Green Bay’s seven pass catchers last season, as the Packers’ passing game was objectively worse when Watson was the team’s primary target.
VERDICT
A healthy Watson has a clear ability to produce peak weeks in bunches, but he is rightfully ranked as the WR41 due to his injury history and Green Bay’s crowded receiver room.
PROS
Adams may be on the downside of his career, but he still ranked second in the league in goals (175), goal share (33.1%), goal rate (31.1%), and red zone goals (29 ) last season; it ranked first in share of air yards (44.2%) and target first read rate (40.6%) and fifth in expected fantasy points per game (22.0). Adams put the two best seasons of his career in Green Bay under the new Las Vegas OC Luke Getsy. Adams plays at home, he has average 110 receptions, 1,397 yards and 13 touchdowns over the last four seasons and I just saw 175 targets.
CONS
Adams’ fantasy production lost three seasons in a rowand wide receivers have historically seen a 34% decline in base production during his 11th year in the league. Adams was the WR5 by expected fantasy points per game, but finished as just the WR17, and your unachievable target rate it’s unlikely to get better with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell battling for the Las Vegas quarterback job. The Raiders managed just 4.9 yards per play last season, and Antonio Pierce wants to run the football. Teammate Jakobi Meyers matched Adams in WR’s first 12 weeks (four) last season, and the Raiders took Brock Bowers with the 13th pick in the draft.
Adams’ yards per route run versus man coverage has fell from 3.06 to 2.00 to 1.66 in the last two seasons, when he started show real signs of decline since joining Las Vegas.
VERDICT
Adams has a good floor given his target projection, but he’s 31 and in a bad spot, possibly with a bottom-three QB game. He’s the WR9 in ECR, but he’s my WR14. I prefer rising young guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk and Jaylen Waddle. I would even draft Cooper Kupp at a higher position given his superior offensive environment.
Adams is on the wrong side of his career to be a top-20 pick.
