2023 Statistics
Points per game: 22.2 (13th)
Total yards per game: 339.5 (13th)
Plays per game: 65.5 (6th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 38.9 (8th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.05 (14th)
Rushing attempts per game: 26.6 (17th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.19 (30th)
Coaching team
Fresh off back-to-back 9-8 seasons, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson is hoping his third year with the team produces more success. It was a tale of two seasons for the Jaguars in 2023. After starting the season with an 8-3 record, the Jaguars limped to a 1-5 finish in their final six games and missed the playoffs after falling 28-20. for the Titans. deleted.
The below-average offensive production finally caught up with the Jaguars down the stretch. Through their first 11 games, they averaged 23.1 points per game, ranking 19th in EPA/play (-0.029). Over the last six games, they have managed just 20.5 PPG while still ranking 19th in EPA/play, but their defense has also allowed 28 or more points in four of those games.
One notable difference for the Jaguars last season was their offensive player. Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor split play-calling duties in 2022, but last season Taylor was responsible for calling the plays. Pederson has been on record this offseason that he needs to consider returning to the offensive game, but has yet to commit to anything before training camp.
Pederson has delivered consecutive winning seasons to the Jaguars for the first time in 19 seasons and already has a playoff victory under his belt. But in a surging AFC South, double-digit wins will likely be needed to secure a playoff spot next season.
Passing game
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones
Authors: Christian Kirk, Parker Washington
Authors: Gabe Davis, Tim Jones
Authors: Brian Thomas Jr., Devin Duvernay
TE: Evan Engram, Luke Farrell
As if expectations weren’t already high for Trevor Lawrence, the former No. 1 overall pick signed a five-year, $275 million contract extension this offseason and now has a hefty contract to fulfill as one of the most highest paid in the league. .
Lawrence got a mulligan after a terrible rookie campaign under Urban Meyer in 2021 in which he threw for 3641-12-17. Lawrence threw for 8129-46-22 in two seasons under Pederson while completing 65.9 percent of his passes and ranked 13th among qualified QBs in EPA/game (.102, min. 500 plays) over that span, while ranked fifth in success rate (50.4 percent). Lawrence has finished as QB8 and QB15 in fantasy points per game the past two seasons, but was QB19 last season during his 8-3 run.
As of 2022, Lawrence ranks fourth among quarterbacks in pass attempts (1,148) and is 11th in expected fantasy points per game (19.9, minimum 10 games played). Underwhelming production from his receivers hurt Lawrence’s fantasy upside last season, but with new weapons to work with and the return of productive vets, there is hope that the best is yet to come for Lawrence in 2024.
Christian Kirk returns to the role he held for most of his career. Last season, he played 71.3% of his snaps in the slot and posted a 57-788-3 line in the 12 games he played in while averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game (WR33). According to FantasyPoints.com, among 18 receivers who averaged 15 or more routes in the slot, Kirk’s targets per route run in the slot (.240) ranked seventh in the league. He was also the first read on 30.9 percent of his slot routes, which ranked fifth, while his 4.7 first read targets per slot game tied for second and trailed only Amon-Ra St. .
|
PLAYER |
SLOT/GM ROUTES |
1ST READING OF THE TGTS/GM SLOT |
|
Ammon-Ra St. |
18.8 |
5.1 |
|
Christian Kirk |
21.9 |
4.7 |
|
Keenan Allen |
21.2 |
4.7 |
|
CeeDee Cordeiro |
20.6 |
4.5 |
|
Adam Thielen |
24.2 |
4.2 |
|
Cooper Kupp |
17.6 |
4.1 |
Kirk was WR19 in fantasy points per game in 2022, but saw those numbers decline in 2023. He conservatively projects as a WR3 in 2024, but should have plenty of WR2 weeks in his production.
The Jaguars opted not to bring back Calvin Ridley after his only season with the team and instead replaced him with former Bills receiver Gabe Davis. Last season, Davis totaled 45 receptions for 746 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 16.6 YPR. Davis has primarily been used as a field stretcher since joining the Bills in 2020, with 29.0% of his targets coming on deep attempts.
Davis is fondly remembered for his 8-201-4 performance in the 2021 AFC Divisional Round against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, the return he has offered fantasy managers in the years since has been underwhelming. Over the past two seasons, Davis has averaged just 10.6 points per game in PPR leagues and posted a top-24 fantasy week in 34.4 percent of the 32 games in which he played. drafts. However, in traditional start/sit leagues, you will be better off leaving him on the bench as his off weeks may be few and far between this season.
Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. will immediately push Davis for targets in the outfield stretcher role. Thomas, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound speedster who threw a 4.33 40 at the NFL Scouting Combine, caught 68 passes for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns in his final season at LSU. Among quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 passes last season, Lawrence ranked third in total deep ball attempts (75) and sixth in deep ball rate (13.3%). The additions of Thomas and Davis should serve as clear signs that the Jaguars hope to improve on a deep game that tied for the league lead with 11 touchdowns on deep attempts last season.
As the Jaguars worked to revamp their receiving corps, they returned tight end Evan Engram for a third season. Engram emerged to finish as the TE4 in fantasy points per game (13.9) last season, while ranking first in targets (143) and receptions (114). While Engram had the best fantasy season of his career in 2023, he did so thanks to short targets and creation after the catch. Among the 24 tight ends who saw 50 or more targets, Engram’s 5.0 ADOT ranked 22nd among the group, while his 528 yards after the catch were second only to David Njoku. Engram went on record saying he hopes to gain more targets on the field in 2024, which could create more scoring opportunities for him, if that were to materialize. Engram has edge TE1 upside this season, but it’s possible we’ve seen his ceiling after his 114-963-4 campaign last year. He’s a good option if the elite TEs are off the board (Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride), but he’ll need more than four touchdowns if he wants to surpass his ADP this season.
Racing game
RB: Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, D’Ernest Johnson, Keilan Robinson
OL (LR): Cam Robinson, Ezra Cleveland, Mitch Morse, Brandon Scherff, Anton Harrison
There weren’t many touches on the Jaguars’ defense last season. Fresh off a 2022 campaign in which he totaled 1,441 yards from scrimmage on 255 touches, Travis Etienne totaled 1,484 yards on 325 touches last season and had a 32 percent opportunity share, which tied for eighth among running backs. Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson tied for 51 touches last season, second most among Jaguars running backs.
Etienne’s efficiency took a huge hit last season. He averaged just 4.6 yards per touch after averaging 5.7 YPT in 2022 and a meager 3.8 YPC on the ground. Despite this, his overall volume and contributions in the passing game (58-476-1) led to him finishing at RB7 in fantasy points per game (16.6).
The good news for Etienne and his fantasy managers is that the Jaguars’ backfield remains largely unchanged heading into 2024. Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson are expected to battle it out in camp for the backup running back job, while fifth-round rookie Keilan Robinson looks to carve out his own role in his first season.
Jacksonville also returns several key starters along an offensive line that ranked 31st in PFF run blocking (40.6) and 32nd in yards before contact per attempt (0.79). Etienne’s assumed volume should keep his fantasy value high, but a lower-than-expected line risks limiting his fantasy ceiling unless he shows drastic improvements from last season.
Total wins
The Jaguars’ offense ranked 13th in points per game last season and 17th in points allowed (21.8/gm). They also tied for the eighth-most forced turnovers with 27. In what was truly a tale of two seasons for the team in 2023, the Jaguars appeared to be on the verge of double-digit wins before imploding over the final six weeks. Currently sitting at an 8.5 win over/under on DraftKings this season, it appears they will once again be flirting with a double-digit winning season. Unfortunately, the rise we saw from the Colts and Texans last season could be tough sledding for Trevor Lawrence and company this season. The Colts also have the seventh-easiest strength of schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis, with the Jaguars in 14th place – ahead of the Texans (26th) and Titans (27th). In addition to signing Brian Thomas Jr., the Jaguars used two top-100 draft picks to bolster the defense, but whether or not they pay immediate dividends remains to be determined. After going 9-8 in each of the last two seasons, the Jaguars may be at a disadvantage in this win total with two other playoff contenders on the rise.
