Free agency shook up the NBA and, with it, the fantasy basketball landscape. Some players are heading for greener pastures, while others could see their value suffer. And let’s not forget those who benefit from changing teammates. I’m not going to cover every trade because some dominoes need to fall regarding notable players like Brandon Ingram, Zach LaVine… and everything the Blazers plan to do with all of their veterans in the midst of a rebuild.
In this two-part series, I’ll give you a rundown of the biggest winners and losers of free agency so far and how they could impact your draft strategy next season. First, the risers.
Old faces, new places
DeMar DeRozan – SF/PF, Sacramento Kings
One of the most durable and decisive players in the NBA, DeRozan’s arrival adds that extra sauce for the Kings to get back into playoff contention. Spacing could be an issue, but I expect the Kings to utilize their athleticism and speed to create more opportunities on offense. There will be some sacrifice here, but a floor of 22/5/5 is nothing to sneeze at.
Preliminary projection: Fifth-Sixth round
Paul George – SG/SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers
I like the landing spot, but I don’t see much change in George’s fantasy outlook as a member of the Sixers. He effectively replaces Tobias Harris and will be a much better shot creator, playmaker, and defender in real life and fantasy. Playing with Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid will increase his assist percentage, and if everything else holds up, George will be a valuable asset in the early rounds.
Preliminary projection: Second round
Josh Giddey – PG/SG/SF, Chicago Bulls
Giddey’s stock rose after falling out of favor in Oklahoma City last year. His size and versatility offer a unique opportunity in Chicago alongside Coby White and Zach LaVine (for now), and Giddey should see an increase in minutes and production in the Windy City.
Preliminary projection: Seventh round
Chris Paul – PG, San Antonio Spurs
Sign me up for the CP3 and Wemby experience. I don’t care that Paul is near the top – he was top 12 in assists and top five in assists-to-turnover ratio despite playing 26 minutes a night. We’ve officially ended Coach Pop’s experiments at point guard, and CP3 starts fresh at point guard, where he will provide leadership, guidance, and plenty of assists and steals.
Preliminary projection: Ninth round
Jonas Valančiūnas – C, Washington Wizards
The JV role has diminished in New Orleans, so moving to a rebuilding Wizards team gives a surprising boost to his fantasy value. Valančiūnas becomes a solid late-round pick, especially if you’re looking for a cheap double-double threat. The Wizards were in the bottom 10 in rebounding last season, and despite playing their lowest minutes in six seasons, Valančiūnas ranked seventh in rebounding percentage in the league.
Preliminary projection: Ninth round
Match Beneficiaries
Trae Young – PG, Atlanta Hawks
The Trae-Dejounte duo didn’t work out and Young no longer needs to share point guard duties. Averaging 25 points with 10 assists is Ice Trae’s baseline, and without any additional high-usage players joining the mix, Trae is poised to explode like he did in the 2021-2022 season before Dejounte arrived.
Preliminary projection: start of the second round
James Harden – PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers
No, Paul George means Harden has to go back to his scoring bag. His scoring dropped to 16 points per game last year, the lowest mark since 2011-2012. He’ll turn 35 in August, so even though he’s past his prime, he can still score 18 points with eight assists and respectable scoring stats as a second option in Los Angeles.
Preliminary projection: Third round
Cam Thomas – PG/SG, Brooklyn Nets
The trade of Mikal Bridges to the Knicks kicked off Brooklyn’s rebuild, and Thomas is in position to step up in fantasy. He had a 30% usage rate and was one of nine players age 23 or younger to average at least 20 ppg last season. I understand the inefficiency blow, but I’m predicting that his increase in points, rebounds, and assists will be enough to justify being a mid-to-late round pick that will likely surpass his ADP.
Preliminary projection: Eighth round
Patrick Williams – SF/PF, Chicago Bulls
I’m not a big Williams guy, but I can’t deny the void he will help fill in Chicago with DeMar DeRozan heading to Sacramento. Williams averaged 12 points, five rebounds and two assists in 31 minutes per game without DeRozan the past two seasons. Going forward, this is a reasonable expectation, with the possibility of more if Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević are also traded.
Preliminary projection: 12th round
Bilal Coulibaly – SF, Washington Wizards
The second-year pro is getting valuable minutes with the French national team as they prepare for the Paris Olympics. With Deni Avdija now with Portland, Coulibaly could build on that momentum to be a starter for the Wizards next season. While he is still a late-round option, he has already shown flashes of his defensive potential. Assuming he takes on a more significant role offensively, Coulibaly is an intriguing and sneaky pick for fantasy managers looking for a young player with upside.
Preliminary projection: 12th to 14th round
