We’re just a few days away from the All-Star break, which gives coaches a chance to reflect on their rosters without the daily grind of setting lineups. And with the break in mind, this week’s article looks ahead to the second half of the 2024 season.
I hope this article gives hope to some teams that are languishing in the middle of the standings. Things will change in the second semester. Quite. This happens every year.
For trading purposes, let’s take a look at some of the breakouts from the second half of 2023 and find players who could be this year’s version. If any of the reasons listed below make sense to you, consider making a low purchase offer to these men. They can lead their team to a comeback victory.
Tristan Casas (2023)
First half: .225, 9 hours, .727 OPS
Second time: .317, 15 hours, 1.034 OPS
Who will be this year’s Tristan Casas? A young hitter who endures a normal first half and then explodes after the All-Star break.
Michael Busch has been consistently powerful in the Minors, racking up 59 home runs in 2022-23. After throwing six long balls in April, his power has disappeared in recent months, but at least he continues to hit for average (albeit with a high BABIP). Busch has recently made some improvements to his strikeout rate and physical contact rate, and as the Cubs continue to slip in the race, they will be motivated to focus on developing their young players in the second half. Busch can be added via waivers in shallow leagues and acquired via trade in deeper fantasy baseball leagues.
Julio Rodríguez (2023)
First half: .249, 13 hours, .721 OPS
Second time: .308, 19 hours, .941 OPS
Who will be this year’s Julio Rodríguez? An underwhelming star who gets on track in the second half.
The easy answer, of course, is Julio Rodríguez. It is well documented that Rodríguez suffered a power outage due to a decrease in his ball pull rate, which contributed to a HR/FB rate (11.7%) that is 7.9% lower than his mark from last season . The guess here is that the 23-year-old star is talented enough to correct that trend in the second half, which will help him return to being a five-division stud.
Since choosing Rodríguez to be this year’s Rodríguez seems too easy, I also offer Pete Alonso. Ranking 15th in baseball in home runs is disappointing for someone who could be at the top of the list. Alonso posted a career-low 15.3% HR/FB rate, nearly 7% below his career mark. The Mets’ offense and mood are heating up, and Alonso could lead the Majors in second-half home runs.
Cal Raleigh (2023)
First half: 11 hours
Second time: 19 hours
Who will be this year’s Cal Raleigh? A catcher who changes the game by hitting for elite power in the second half.
Mitch Garver has quietly hit seven home runs since June 6. Like his teammate Raleigh, Garver presents an average hitting risk as he strikes out often and hits a lot of fly balls. But that hitting profile also leads to power surges, which Garver is capable of in the second half.
CJ Abrams (2023)
First half: 14 SB
Second time: 33 SB
Who will be this year’s CJ Abrams? A player who catches fire on the base paths in the second half.
Wyatt Langford is an easy choice here. The rookie ranks 10th in baseball in average sprint speed and used those quick feet to steal six bases in June. The Rangers are desperate to pick up wins from their fringe position in the wild card race and Langford has recently emerged as one of the team’s best players, batting .317 and a .910 OPS since the beginning of June.
Freddy Peralta (2023)
First half: 4.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Second time: 2.81 ERA, 0.88 WHIP
Who will be this year’s Freddy Peralta? A skilled starter who fails in the first half and thrives in the second half.
There are obvious similarities between Peralta and Twins starter Pablo López. Both pitchers are the same age, play on teams with winning records, and consistently post excellent K:BB ratios. López has shown strong skills this year (K:BB ratio of 116:22) in dealing with bad luck that includes a 64.8% strand rate – the fifth lowest of any qualified starter. The right-hander still has potential for the second half.
Adberto Alzolay (2023)
First half: 7 SV
Second time: 15 SV
Who will be this year’s Adbert Alzolay? A reliever who takes on the role of closer in the second half.
Jeff Hoffman has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year, posting a 47:8 K:BB ratio en route to a 1.21 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. The right-hander has thus far shared the Phillies’ closer role with José Alvarado, but has taken a small step forward recently by picking up three of the team’s last four saves. Philadelphia’s front office could opt to sign an experienced player, but Hoffman has shown them that he is more than capable of handling the role on his own.
