Free agency shook up the NBA and, with it, the fantasy basketball landscape. Some players are heading for greener pastures, while others could see their value suffer. And let’s not forget those who benefit from changing teammates. I’m not going to cover every trade because some dominoes need to fall regarding notable players like Brandon Ingram, Zach LaVine… and everything the Blazers plan to do with all of their veterans in the midst of a rebuild.
Yesterday, I looked at the biggest winners of free agency so far. To wrap up the two-part series, I will discuss several drops this offseason and where I am projecting them to be picked before next season.
Mikal Bridges – SG/SF/PF, New York Knicks
Coming off a down year in which he finished outside the top 90, Bridges joins a stacked Knicks roster, further hurting his fantasy basketball prospects for 2024. Bridges shot 43% from the field last season, which reduced his value . Now that he will be New York’s third option, his best chance of regaining his status as a top-50 player lies in his ability to get shares and return to his career 48% shooting marks. With so many options, I’m pessimistic and will pick him much later than I did in last year’s ADP runoff.
Preliminary projection: Sixth round
CJ McCollum – PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans
Dejounte Murray joining the Pelicans moves McCollum to his more natural position as point guard. McCollum far exceeded expectations last season, finishing in the top 40 and averaging more than 34 fantasy points per game. CJ getting off the ball means fewer plays, and getting the best eFG percentage of his career, 57% in his 11th season, is not sustainable. Murray is a threat to your fantasy production, and I predict he will perform closer to last season’s seventh-round ADP.
Preliminary projection: Sixth-seventh round
OG Anunoby – SG/SF, New York Knicks
The second Knick to make the list of fallers, Anunoby’s presence has been felt more IRL than in fantasy since heading to the mecca. With the arrival of Bridges and the return of Julius Randle, the OG role will likely move to the fourth option. While OG’s efficiency and steals continue to drive much of his fantasy value, his ceiling is limited because of his lack of volume (11 shots per game) with limited counting stats in rebounds and assists. He was drafted in the fifth round last year, but will be closer to finishing in the top 80 next year.
Preliminary projection: Seventh round
Robert Williams III – C, Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers selected Donovan Clingan seventh overall in this year’s draft, and by all reports, Deandre Ayton is welcoming the rookie with open arms and is ready to mentor the young big man. Williams, who had an eighth-round ADP in the Yahoo Leagues last year, has played in just 41 games over the past two seasons.
Signings and negotiations are still ongoing, and Williams III has an attractive, absorbable contract (which will cost $25 million over two seasons). His elite rim protection and rebounding could help any interested team (if healthy). However, his position in the Blazers’ rotation seems compromised.
Blazers HC Chauncey Billups said he is ready to experiment with Ayton as a striker and Cligan as a center – no mention of Williams, so his days are probably numbered. A change of scenery might be the best thing for your fantasy prospects.
Draft projection: not drafted
Tre Jones – PG, San Antonio Spurs
Jones’ job security was questioned from the start when coach Pop started PF Jeremy Sochan at point guard from October to January. Jones eventually took the reins, but it wouldn’t last long as the Spurs drafted Stephon Castle fourth overall this year and signed god Chris Paul to a one-year deal.
Paul will start and will probably be spelled by Castle with a hint of Jones, but at this point, Jones’ fantasy value is gone.
Draft projection: not drafted
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