Fantasy Football Shopping: If not Keon Coleman, who is Josh Allen’s top target in 2024?

The Bills pass-catching corps is in transition. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving the team this offseason, Buffalo will enter 2024 without its top two yard-gainers and its first- and third-most targeted players.

Surprisingly, these departures could serve as a springboard for growth and evolution rather than a catastrophic setback for the Bills’ offense.

Diggs has been an elite receiver in this league for some time, but last year, he didn’t separate himself in the film’s vertical play to the same degree as his previous seasons. We know that his influence on the offensive game plan decreased in the second half of the year and that there was some general discontent between player and team. The Diggs deal with Buffalo was an overwhelming success for both parties, but it was probably time for a divorce. As for Davis, while he has had standout moments in big games, he is a replacement-level starting receiver whose volatility has made him a bit of a misnomer as one of the team’s leading scorers.

So while these are losses and seeing players leave doesn’t make you better, you only guarantee it will get worse by not responding to departures with new additions and/or developing young players in your squad. The Bills welcomed newcomers and some young players they had left to marinate on the team over the previous two seasons. The question is how these players project into vacant roles on the team and where the targets will be distributed.

Let’s dive into some possible answers by reviewing each of the bill receiving options, starting with the holdovers before analyzing the newcomers. Any offense with an elite quarterback like Josh Allen will still be a strong unit, so getting the order of your pass catchers right is essential.

The second-year tight end should be considered the favorite to lead the team in targets. From him 52nd overall consensus ADP in top ball drafts is the highest of any Bills wide receiver or tight end.

Kincaid is coming off a solid rookie season at a position that typically doesn’t lend itself to Year 1 production. He ranked ninth among all tight ends in targets and collected 82% of his looks. He was a reliable receiver for Allen as a rookie who flashed good hands on quick option routes.

Some of the hidden stats show areas where he needs to grow to take the next step as a talent. Among tight ends with more than 75 targets, Kincaid was in the middle or bottom of the pack in yards per route run (1.59) and first downs per route run (0.068), according to Fantasy Points Data. Part of this is because he was not the featured receiver, with just a 17.9% target share on the first read, nor was he deployed on downfield routes. At least one of these things will have to change to facilitate a meaningful breakup.

Among that same group of 75+ restricted targets, Kincaid’s 60.6% slot route rate, per PFF, was the highest. When Dawson Knox returned from injury in Week 14 during the AFC Divisional Round, Kincaid averaged a 57% snap share. These two things are related. Kincaid needs to more fully replace Knox, who is on a multi-year extension with the team, for more traditional tight end duties if he wants to be a true standout receiver for this Bills offense in the same vein as Travis Kelce or Mark Like Andrews in position. This is especially the case when you consider that almost all of this team’s top wide receivers should be in line for some slot work.

All of this will be possible if Kincaid emerges as an improved player who has taken the next step in Year 2. At this position, gradual growth is typically the expectation, and Kincaid is already ahead of the curve based on his performance as a rookie. I don’t see it as a certainty, but if anyone is going to push for 120+ targets on this team, Kincaid is the best bet, both because of his pedigree and the fact that he already has a year of work with Allen prepared. in.

We must include Cook in this equation because he has taken a significant step forward as a broadcast weapon in his second season in the NFL. Cook’s 0.20 targets per route ranked third on the team behind Diggs and Kincaid.

More interesting was how Cook was targeted. The Bills running back had a 2.4 aDOT in 2023, which led all players at the position with at least 50 targets. It may not seem like much, but even the best receiving running backs’ aDOTs are usually much lower – less than 1.0 or even negative. Cook and Saquon Barkley are the only ones with an aDOT above 2.0 in the last two years.

If Cook continues to be a big part of the receiving hierarchy — and given the importance of his role last year, there’s no reason to assume he’ll be cut — then that matters to the wide receiver projections on this team.

Khalil Shakir is the only remaining wide receiver who played a significant role last year. I was a fan of Shakir as a sleeper in the 2022 NFL Draft and was happy to see him carve out a good position as a reliable target in a good offense.

The question is: beyond the good work we’ve seen so far, how much more is he capable of offering?

Shakir ran 78.1% of his routes in the slot last season and recorded an aDOT of 8.6. Personally, I think Shakir has demonstrated an ability to beat man coverage since his days at Boise State, which could translate into more outside shots. He also appeared for critical plays in the midfield. Again, this is all just my assessment of him as a player, but I see him as a reliable slot machine.mostly but not slot-just player.

Curtis Samuel is the most interesting of the new pass catchers. Samuel is an underrated player best suited to work as a No. 2 receiver. He had his best year in the NFL with current Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady in Carolina during the 2020 season. He signed with Washington on an agency basis free after that, but was hampered by injuries and a quarterback play.

However, when healthy, Samuel has long shown a strong ability to separate and get open against man and zone coverage.

Samuel’s alignment will be particularly critical to resolve. He spent some time during his career as a slot and gadget receiver, but began his time in Carolina as an outside flanker. Samuel’s strength is beating man coverage on isolation routes, which helps his case as an outside receiver. He’s probably not an X receiver candidate, but neither is Shakir. This could make his positions overlap a little, but as much as I like Shakir as an actor, Samuel is a superior talent.

I expect the 27-year-old to deliver one of his best NFL campaigns and lead the Bills wide receiver room in yards. He matches up well with Josh Allen and, of all the receivers on this list, bears the most similarities to Diggs as a route runner.

The FSU rookie was a quality, if somewhat flawed, prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft. Keon Coleman’s strengths are easy to spot. He’s a big-bodied target with strong hands who works best against zone coverage and is flexible enough to win routes down the middle of the field. The weaknesses are equally pronounced; Coleman didn’t separate from man coverage at FSU and isn’t a vertical threat.

Most prospects who have addressed these issues in their scouting reports and have had success in the NFL have gone from outside receiver to the slot. It’s an interesting fit for this team, given the other options on the roster.

At least for now, that doesn’t seem to be how the team sees this player. General manager Brandon Beane indicated in the post-draft press conference that Coleman’s primary position would be as an X receiver. From a size perspective, this makes sense when compared to Samuel and Shakir, but it’s also not the best way to maximize him. Of course, these comments are not binding.

My guess is that Coleman will eventually move into a flanker/big slot role, but that could take some time to implement. When you see him start to do more reps on and off the line, that will be the time to move his stock up.

The rejected crew

So if Coleman won’t be the Bills’ X-receiver for a full season, who will? This is the least fascinating section of the discussion, but it’s worth remembering that the Bills added three wide receiver castoffs, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool and Mack Hollins, to the roster this offseason.

My guess is that these three are competing for roster spots given where they are at this point in their careers. However, I’m a little obsessed with the idea of ​​the “sacrificial X receiver” in today’s NFL and my antenna is up regarding that theory when I look at the Bills depth chart.

As teams are implementing more pre and immediate moves and generally doing more than ever to give their best receivers an optimal deployment, top targets are being played at the slot or flanker position. To accomplish this, you need a receiver to do the thankless job of running routes from the boundary simply to stretch the defense. This player won’t get the ball often and doesn’t attract particularly efficient targets either. However, his presence allows the coaching staff to release other players and for the plays to be conceptually well executed.

With so many of the Bills’ best players being candidates for roster spots and offline work as flankers, it’s worth wondering if one of these bigger wideouts ends up playing more than we think — at least, early in the season. This player will not have individual importance in fantasy, however, his role could be critical in solving the mystery of how playing time is distributed to Samuel, Shakir and Coleman.

No person reading this piece is going to like this as a final thought, but too often, a player like this ends up crowding the picture into a receiving room. This is especially true for a pass-catching corps like the Bills, who don’t have a true alpha but have several quality pieces. We typically see situations like this end up with a variety of players between 70 and 90 targets, but no one above 110. If I had to guess, that’s how I see it playing out for Buffalo in 2024.