While we’ve reached the point in the fantasy baseball season where managers are starting to see their frustration boil over, the reality is that we’re still in the early days of the campaign. Teams have played around 12% of their full schedule and we are still at the stage where a good or bad week can completely reverse any player’s outlook. The panic levels are especially unnecessary when it comes to pitchers, who typically make 3-8 starts depending on their role.
This week’s list of trade candidates is entirely focused on pitchers, and as always, the advice here is to check the Yahoo Trade Market page to determine the popular opinion on the players who are involved in their trade talks.
Who to buy low
Luis Castillo (SP, Seattle Mariners)
Wise managers will heed that advice for a few days, with the goal of submitting a Castillo trade offer after he starts at Coors Field on Saturday. The right-hander had his best start to the season last time out (6 IP, 2 ER), but has suffered losses in all four starts and boasts bloated ratios (5.82 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) that are far from what was expected when he was selected as a fantasy ace. But when we look beyond the superficial statistics, we see that there is nothing wrong with Castillo. His 27:4 K:BB ratio is an excellent mark, and his 2.87 xFIP ranks 10th among qualified pitchers. I would be happy to acquire this durable ace (a stint in the IL career) at a small discount.
Josh Hader (RP, Houston Astros)
Buying low from good closers who have unimpressive total savings in April is one of the oldest tricks in the trading playbook. Hader fits the profile now, as he only managed one save while posting a 9.39 ERA. Its leaders were not even rewarded with the vulture victory for their troubles. The left-hander remains one of baseball’s premier relievers, but he has been hampered by the Astros’ dismal record (6-13) and a blown save that came when he was one pitch away from ending the game. My plan is to acquire Hader as a backup who was significantly less valuable during draft season but now has a higher save total.
Who to buy at the top
Kyle Finnegan (RP, Washington Nationals)
To be clear, Finnegan’s “high” value is still a pretty low mark. There are few fantasy managers who believe in the right-hander, as most of those who drafted him will cite his late draft status as the reason he is on their team. Still, saves are saves, and Finnegan is getting them now.
My trade offer for Finnegan would say something like: “We all know Hunter Harvey is a much better pitcher and will eventually be a closer for the Nats, but I’m desperate for saves right now, so I’m hoping Finnegan can help me out for a few weeks.
In fact, the Nats have already to know that Harvey is the better pitcher, but they choose to use Finnegan in the ninth inning anyway. There’s a scenario in which Harvey spends the entire season dominating the opposing lineup’s most dangerous spots during the seventh and eighth innings, while Finnegan trudges to a 3.75 ERA and 30 saves.
Who sells low
Triston McKenzie (SP, Cleveland Guardians)
Managers must be willing to accept whatever they can get for McKenzie, who is clearly not the same pitcher who made a big fantasy impact in 2022. Last season’s arm injuries appear to have had a permanent impact on him, as his ball Fast average speed dropped to 91.0 mph, which is 1.4 mph below his career mark. He’s struggling to put hitters away (4.0 K/9 rate) and is issuing walks at a high clip after previously excelling in that area. I’m willing to trade McKenzie for any player I can imagine remaining on my roster for more than a month.
Who sells high
Ryan Helsley (RP, St. Louis Cardinals)
Helsley is an excellent reliever who is enjoying an excellent start to the season. His seven saves lead the MLB, and his 12:1 K:BB ratio is an excellent mark. However, there were durability concerns regarding the right-hander that caused him to fall in drafts, and those concerns cannot be alleviated by a few good weeks. Helsley managers could get Hader and a second (less valuable) player for Helsley, which seemed incomprehensible during draft season.
Aaron Nola (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)
There is a window to sell high for Nola after he dominated an inept Rockies lineup in his last start. When offering the right-hander in trade, I would refer to his poor early start against a dominant Braves lineup as an anomaly. After all, he has picked up a win in two of his last three starts while allowing three runs in 19 innings.
My true opinion of Nola, though, is that I’m worried.
He had the same number of strikeouts as walks in his two starts before the Rockies started, which is never a good sign. His average fastball velocity dropped 1.7 mph, and his 5.54 FIP suggests his 3.47 ERA could be much worse. Nola still has a lot of name value, and I would use that to my advantage when exploring her trade market.
