Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Yahoo ADP: QB14 vs. My rating:QB9
There’s a good chance Washington ends up regretting having chosen Daniels over Drake Maye, but that doesn’t mean Daniels can’t be a fantasy force right away. Last season he averaged second-most fantasy points per game (40.2) since 2016 and second most fantasy points per dropback since 2014. Daniels average more than 60 rushing yards and scored 34 rushing touchdowns during his college career, and Kliff Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray finish as a top-10 QB as a rookie. Kingsbury’s scheme came first situation-neutral pace and uncrowded rate during his four seasons in Arizona, also producing runs against light boxes at a high rate.
Daniels is a truly elite runner Who led all NCAA quarterbacks last year in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.72) while leading all Power Five QBs in rushing yards (1,250), YPC (10.4), scrambles (55) and PFF Rushing Grade (92.4 – best ever). Running Not Only Increases a Fantasy Quarterback’s Advantage but also his floorand Daniels will likely run as much as any QB in the league as a beginner.
Daniels is unquestionably a risk of injury, but the quarterback is deeper than ever (and isn’t even being drafted as QB1). Daniels’ ADP increased over the summer but still remains very low.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Yahoo ADP: WR29 vs. My rating: WR15
Nabers had a prolific college career surpassing 3,000 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns in three seasons at LSU. He led all WRs in yards per route during his senior season, while also leading the team in career yards per attempt – two of the highest signal metrics – and he hasn’t even turned 21 yet! He is an elite tackle buster who is able to play in the slot or outside of it.
New York’s QB situation isn’t ideal, but Nabers, on the other hand, has fallen into an excellent situation to start a monster rookie season. The Giants have arguably the thinnest WR room in the league and lost Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller during the offseason. Brian Daboll called the top-five no-huddle rate one of the fastest paces in the league last season despite a disastrous offense, and the entire NFC East division is revved up and should produce a ton of plays.
The Giants improved their offensive line during the offseason, and Daboll ran Buffalo’s offense, which averaged 165 targets for Stefon Diggs in 2020-2021. Daboll seems to love Nabers, passing the sixth overall pick to the LSU star. Nabers probably has a 45% chance of having a better fantasy season than Marvin Harrison Jr., but the latter’s ADP is interestingly 55 picks higher.
Nabers should see 140+ targets as a rookie with upside for more, so his WR29 ADP looks very off.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Yahoo ADP: RB21 vs. My rating: RB11
It’s usually best not to target 29-year-old running backs with a history of losing games, but Conner’s opinion ADP remains very low thanks to injury concerns and Trey Benson. Conner scored the most RB fantasy points from week 13 of last season and finished third run yards above expectation, behind only Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane. Conner is an underrated three-down back who silently led all RBs Runs of 20+ yards last season.
The Cardinals were one of the 10 best offenses after Week 10 following Kyler Murray’s return last season when Arizona’s rushing attack led the NFL in YPC (5.3) and EPA per trial. Murray should improve during his second year after surgery, and the Cardinals added Harrison Jr. guard Trey McBride looks like a star at tight endand Arizona ran the ball with the sixth-most seconds left on the play clock last season (despite shaky QB play before Murray’s return).
Conner has missed multiple games in every season of his career, so it’s best to plan for him to do so again in 2024. Benson’s call-up could be seen as an advantage for Conner, as he is unlikely to take many touches (third round with low athleticism score), but is the clear RB2 when/if Conner misses games. Benson is being drafted as the RB30 around pick #115, so use a ninth or tenth round pick as insurance (Benson would likely be a top 15 RB in this system in games Conner misses).
All running backs carry significant injury risk, but Conner has a real chance to be a top-five fantasy RB when healthy. He’s a steal in the fifth/sixth round.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
Yahoo ADP:RB37 vs. My rating: RB22
Brooks compared equally or even favorably to Bijan Robinson in most rushed/received categories as Texas’ starting RB in 2023. He’s a three-down defender who was easily the top RB prospect in this year’s draft (and would have been drafted much higher if not for ACL surgery). Dave Canales plans to run the ball heavilyand the top 50 choices have had a good historical performance in fantasy.
Chuba Hubbard was the #9 fantasy RB in the final seven weeks of last year, and Canales should be a big boost for one Updated Carolina offense this also added Diontae Johnson during the offseason. Brooks may require patience after surgery, but his ADP is taking that into too much consideration. Hubbard and Miles Sanders won’t be a hindrance when Brooks is healthy. Brooks should be a workhorse in Canales’ scheme during the second half of the season when he matters most in fantasy.
There’s a big drop in level after about RB20, and Brooks has the most fantasy edge among them.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Yahoo ADP: WR21 vs. My rating: WR12
Kupp’s performance unquestionably declined last season, when he was clearly playing through an injury. However, a committed Kupp still managed to match Puka Nacua’s targets when they were in the field togetherIncluding target portion of first reading. Kupp finished with the ninth highest reception in the red zone while playing just 12 matches in one leg. Nacua emerged as a true alpha as a rookie and will continue to demand goals, but Kupp enters 2024 finally healthy.
Kupp just turned 31, but fantasy wide receivers traditionally don’t show much decline during his eighth year in the league. The Rams led the NFL in yards per play when their offense was fully healthy last season, and Sean McVay is a master at producing WR fantasy points. Kupp is just two seasons removed from posting a 191-145-1,947-16 record, but he is available in the fourth round of Yahoo drafts, with 20 wide receivers being taken ahead of him.
The Rams have Demarcus Robinson as their WR3, Colby Parkinson as their TE1, and an RB1 who has suffered multiple injuries throughout his brief career, so the targets will be extremely condensed. Additionally, Nacua ran more routes last season than he did throughout his college career, so it’s hardly a guarantee of holding up, presenting a huge potential upside to Kupp.
I rank Kupp as a top 12 fantasy WR, but he is available in the fourth round.
