NFL training season is here, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare yourself for the onslaught of information, rumors and exaggerated articles. But fantasy managers shouldn’t be careful with the flow of information – Scott Pianowski offers one important piece of information for every team. First, the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has mostly been a disappointment in fantasy over three seasons, scoring just six touchdowns and consistently failing to live up to his ADP. But perhaps that was mainly a failure of the pieces around him. The Falcons haven’t had a league-average rated quarterback since Pitts joined the team, and coach Arthur Smith was probably in over his head.
Pitts is still on the escalator entering his age-24 season. And let’s remember that he recorded 1,026 receiving yards in 2021, the second-highest number by a rookie tight end. Kirk Cousins is obviously a much-needed quarterback upgrade for the Falcons and new OC Zac Robinson spent five years learning from offensive wizard Sean McVay. Mix a very fine Atlanta agenda and Pitts still makes sense as a proactive fantasy pick, currently the TE7 off the board in Yahoo drafts.
Carolina Panteras
Bryce Young’s rookie season was difficult to watch, as he was below code in every primary efficiency stat except avoiding interceptions. But maybe coach Dave Canales can fix Young. Canales’ fingerprints were present all over Baker Mayfield’s career season last year, and he was also the architect of Geno Smith’s 2022 emergence.
Even if Young improves, it may be difficult for him to claim fantasy value in a traditional league. It’s probably best left as a backup option or a Superflex consideration. But if we’re modestly hopeful about Young, that would likely push Diontae Johnson into credible fantasy territory. Johnson has little competition for targets in Carolina and won’t have to do much to surpass his current Yahoo mark of WR35.
Saints of New Orleans
Alvin Kamara is a polarizing fantasy pick heading into 2024. Colleague Andy Behrens recently posted some pro-Kamara takes and I always respect Andy’s opinion. But I’m worried that Kamara is more concerned with accumulating volume than flashy plays these days, and that’s made me fade the veteran entering his age-29 season.
Kamara was a reliable fantasy producer after his 2023 suspension, finishing fifth in PPR scoring at half a point per game. That rating was supported by his regular use in the passing game – he had 75 grabs, second most in the league. The reception count is great, but these plays weren’t all that successful – Kamara’s 6.2 yards per reception represents a career low, and a 2.4 yard drop from the previous year.
The warning signs are most prominent with Kamara, the runner. Kamara managed just 3.9 yards per carry last year and didn’t have a single run over 20 yards (a surprising lack of explosiveness; hell, Baltimore backup Keaton Mitchell had seven such carries on just 47 carries). Mix it up and Kamara recorded 5.4 yards per touch, the third year in a row he’s fallen into that category. It’s a far cry from the 8.3 YPT he posted in his rookie season.
The Saints don’t go out of their way to guide Kamara’s easy touchdowns; he has scored a modest 10 goals in his last 28 games. Maybe Taysom Hill will get some goal-line work, and second-year wing Kendre Miller is also interesting after a failed first season (mostly ruined by injury; he appeared in week 18). Given Kamara’s age and declining efficiency, I can’t see him being a fantasy destination pick this summer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While receivers often have randomness in their touchdown rates, there is something to be said for consistent play design. Mike Evans has long been the designated touchdown threat in Tampa Bay’s passing game, and that makes him a still attractive fantasy pick entering his age-31 season.
Evans, of course, has recorded 1,000 yards or more in all 10 of his pro seasons. He probably already got a ticket to the Hall of Fame. But it’s the touchdowns that frame Evans as fantasy royalty; he’s caught 46 times over the past four years, including a league-high 13 touchdown receptions last year.
Compare that to Chris Godwin, a reliable receiver who doesn’t score often. Although Godwin has had 50 more receptions than Evans over the past four seasons, Godwin has a modest 17 touchdowns in that span – an impressive 29 scores behind his teammate. Sometimes disparities like this appear for a season or two, but since this touchdown trend has been around for four years, it’s wise to follow it. That’s what Yahoo writers are doing, pushing Evans into the WR14 slot while Godwin is a modest WR36.
