NFL training season is here, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare yourself for the onslaught of information, rumors and exaggerated articles. But fantasy managers shouldn’t be careful with the flow of information – Scott Pianowski offers one important piece of information for every team. Next up is the AFC East.
We’re entering the 5th year of the Tua Tagovailoa experiment and it’s still difficult to discern just how good he really is. One thing is certain: he hasn’t become an elite fantasy quarterback.
Despite leading the NFL in YPA and quarterback rating two years ago and leading the league in passing yards last year, Tagovailoa has never achieved a performance higher than QB11. Tagovailoa is a reluctant runner and the Dolphins score a lot of touchdowns on the ground.
Part of this comes down to physical tools – Tagovailoa has average arm strength and is undersized for the position, a modest 6-foot-10. He also struggled against better competition last year; Most of his strongest matches have been against smaller teams. If you want to slot Tagovailoa as QB2 in Superflex format, he could fit into some lineup constructions. But if your league only requires one starter at the position, I would like you to aim for a higher ceiling.
With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis out of town, fantasy managers are scrambling to decipher which Buffalo receivers will benefit from all the unoccupied targets. But perhaps the right answer is tight end Dalton Kincaid. His rookie season was partially influenced by what Sam LaPorta did in Detroit, but let’s acknowledge the Historical significance of Kincaid’s debut. His 73 receptions were fourth-most by a first-year tight end, and his 673 yards ranked him ninth among rookies at the position.
Kincaid didn’t get a boost from touchdowns, scoring just three in total (one in the playoffs). But note that all of these scores came from distance – 22, 22 and 29 yards. Give Kincaid more luck at the goal line and a goal raise and you could be looking at a breakout season. He’s certainly not a revelation at current market price — his Yahoo ADP is stabilizing around 60 — but Kincaid’s upside could still be worth chasing.
Garrett Wilson enters his third season late for a breakout year. All he needs is some decent quarterback play. Wilson classification 11th in wide receiver catches since start of 2021, and he is 18th in yards in that span. This solid production came despite a clown car from New York quarterbacks – Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Mike White and the sunset of Joe Flacco. No one in that eccentric quartet can start a single NFL game this year.
Wilson’s only pillar of light through two years was touchdowns; he has scored just seven times – but again, that is driven by the quarterback’s erratic play. Assuming Aaron Rodgers can be merely average — and it’s plausible he’s better than that — Wilson is a slam dunk for improving his touchdown rate. Rodgers has a history of getting to a primary target if that receiver is clearly the No. 1 on the roster, and Wilson unquestionably checks that box in New York.
Wilson isn’t cheap like the WR7 in Yahoo’s early drafts, but there’s still a good chance he beats ADP. I will proactively recruit him over the summer.
It can be daunting selecting a costume for a losing team. The flow of the game will often be your enemy, and it stands to reason that weaker teams will not score as many points. But Rhamondre Stevenson still has some fantasy to offer as a New England standout.
First, Stevenson has little competition for carries. The second in the New England room is Antonio Gibson, another satellite player. Kevin Harris and JaMycal Hasty are just depth options. And the Patriots’ offense is now led by OC Alex Van Pelt, who was part of an early offensive regime in Cleveland. Stevenson may not make much profit as the current RB20 off Yahoo’s board, but if he has a reasonable health issue, he can at least recoup his investment.
