NFL training season is here, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare yourself for the onslaught of information, rumors and exaggerated articles. But Fantasy Football coaches shouldn’t worry about the flow of information – Scott Pianowski offers one important piece of information for every team. Next up is the NFC North.
[NFC fantasy footnotes: South | East | North | West ]
[AFC fantasy footnotes: South | East | North | West (coming soon) ]
Keenan Allen didn’t show many slip-ups in his age-31 season, with efficiency metrics close to his career averages. But the Chargers forced the ball to Allen constantly — he commanded 11.5 targets per game — and the Bears are unlikely to give him similar volume.
Chicago’s passing game has a lot of talent, but there is also a huddle problem. DJ Moore is coming off a breakthrough year, setting career-bests in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Cole Kmet has been a top-10 fantasy tight end two years in a row, and rookie Rome Odunze was the ninth overall pick in the draft. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is the winner in all of this, as he’s stepping into an unusually deep offense for a player drafted first overall. Who Williams clicks with the fastest is anyone’s guess.
And keep in mind that the Bears don’t need Williams to carry the team right away, given how well Chicago’s defense played in the second half of last year. Perhaps the initial offensive game plans err on the conservative side. Allen’s ADP is in a reasonable pocket in Yahoo’s early drafts (WR30), but given his age and change of address, he’s not someone I’ll proactively select.
Much has been made about Green Bay’s historic luck at quarterback, recently transitioning from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. But maybe the Packers are making the most of that luck. Love is tied to a great receiving corps — with apologies to the Steelers, the Packers probably scout the draft for pass-catchers better than anyone — and a brilliant play designer in Matt LaFleur. Love certainly looked like a star in the second half of 2023posting 18 touchdowns and a 112.7 rating against just one interception in his last eight games.
The quarterback position is unusually deep for 2024, which makes things easier for managers. You can choose a strong candidate from many pockets. But as long as the Yahoo market allows me to consider Love as a QB10, he will be one of my favorite targets.
I keep talking about wanting to build my fantasy teams around wide receivers, with an anchor running back. One of the main reasons the strategy makes sense is because there are a large number of reasonably priced RB2 candidates. David Montgomery is at the top of that target list.
Obviously Montgomery won’t have Detroit’s backfield to himself; Jahmyr Gibbs is too good. But the Lions don’t have a running quarterback and don’t feature any other running backs. Montgomery looks like a lock for double-digit touches every week and a big chunk of goal-line equity. And he’s obviously working behind a dominant offensive line, perhaps the best unit in the league. Boring value isn’t the most exciting fantasy strategy, but it usually gets good payoff.
You have my permission to draft Justin Jefferson with confidence – let’s start with that. Keep that thought in mind as we examine the Vikings offense overall.
Minnesota’s passing game should have fallen apart when Kirk Cousins was injured last year, but the injuries weren’t as severe as expected. Sure, efficiency was an issue, but the Vikings still made explosive plays. Nick Mullens has put up 8.8 YPA in his three starts, and Jaren Hall has put up 8.4 YPA. Moral of this story: Coach Kevin O’Connell knows how to plan a passing game downfield.
The hope is that Sam Darnold can be a short-term solution for the Vikings, with rookie JJ McCarthy a long-term solution. Both come with caveats — Darnold’s six-year career was troubled and McCarthy operated a starting offense at Michigan. But O’Connell got the benefit of the doubt, and so did Jefferson. The unique wideout has racked up a juicy 30-476-2 line in his last four matches last yeardespite Minnesota’s motley group of quarterbacks.
It stands to reason that CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase will have pre-Jefferson ADPs this summer, and some will prefer Amon-Ra St. Brown over Jefferson as well. But Jefferson certainly belongs in the middle of the first round and has a good chance to be the overall WR1 at the end of the season.
