ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Rating,” which means the fantasy football industry average ratings and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site to site). This continuous positional series go highlight some big differences between the ECR and my own ranks.
Quarterbacks I like more than consensus
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (Photo: Disclosure)ECR =DB5 vs. My rating =QB1)
Dropback fantasy points are one of the the best future indicators of fantasy performance, and Richardson just recorded the highest number of FP/DB since Lamar Jackson’s historic 2019 season. Richardson mean 29.2 fantasy points per four quarters as a rookie and combined with CJ Stroud in the weekly top five despite only playing 10 quarters.
Richardson continued to show a strong ability to avoid bags as he did in college, and last year’s rushing rate would have led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (925), rushing TDs (26!), attempts (170), and projected runs (111). He advanced easily through the league in projected rush rate in the red zone It is doesn’t plan on changing his playing style in year two.
Richardson has a limited NFL sample size and appears to enter 2024 with an increased injury risk, but every other Tier 1 fantasy quarterback also has question marks and none possess the AR ceiling. Shane Steichen is a certified QB guru, and the Colts play indoors at an incredibly high rate (top five in plays per game with Richardson last year). Indianapolis is full of athletic weapons and has two legitimate wide receivers and a top-five offensive line. Richardson will also likely improve during his second year in the league and be much better versed in Steichen’s offense.
With salivating running ability and the right coaching staff and roster around him, Richardson’s unparalleled fantasy potential outweighs the health risk.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (Photo: Disclosure)ECR =QB8 vs. My rating =DB5)
Murray still ranked in the top 10 in fantasy points per drop last season, despite running less than normal after an anterior cruciate ligament injury and with arguably the weakest supporting cast in the league. He started running more after leaving Arizona and should be even more aggressive on the ground during his second year away from knee surgery.
The Cardinals have an underrated system/coaching staff that helped Arizona rank in the top 10 in EPA per game and yards per play in the second half of last season and then added star WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Trey McBride emerged as a elite option at tight endArizona has upgraded its offensive line and the NFC West is expected to feature a lot of shootouts in 2024.
Since his rookie season, Murray ranked as QB4, QB4 and QB5 in fantasy points per game before tearing his ACL in 2022, and finished better than Stroud and Patrick Mahomes last year despite unfavorable conditions.
The last time Murray had a 1,000-yard receiver, he finished as QB2.
Murray simply shouldn’t be drafted behind non-running quarterbacks like Stroud or Joe Burrow.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (Photo: Disclosure)ECR =QB11 vs. My rating =QB8)
Purdy just posted the best YPA season in NFL history despite incredibly poor passage protection It is elbow surgery rehabilitation until the end of November. He threw for more yards and just one fewer TD pass than Jordan Love in 135 fewer attempts.
The 49ers are projected score more points in the league in 2024 (including fantasy playoffs), while Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both top 15 fantasy WRs in ECR. George Kittle is TE6.
Kyle Shanahan’s recent personal decisions also suggest San Francisco could spend a lot more in 2024 (like he did in Atlanta), especially with Christian McCaffrey coming off a 400+ touch campaign.
Purdy (0.63) finished just behind leader Josh Allen (0.64) in fantasy points per drop last season, when he led the NFL in Pass attempts of 30+ yards. He leads the league in passer rating and YPA and is second in TD passes since taking over as starter in 2022. Last year’s historical efficiency will certainly regress, but this should be compensated by more volume. Purdy doesn’t offer the same rushing advantage as the QB level above him, but he is capable of putting up 4-6 rushing scores on the season.
Purdy added pounds and zip during an injury-free offseason, but the “QB system” continues to achieve Less respect than Rodney Dangerfield. Purdy should threaten 40+ passing touchdowns in 2024.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (ECR =DB12 vs. My rating =DB9)
There’s a good chance Washington ends up regretting having chosen Daniels over Drake Maye, but that doesn’t mean Daniels can’t be a fantasy force right away. Last season he averaged second-most fantasy points per game (40.2) since 2016 and second most fantasy points per dropback since 2014. Daniels average more than 60 rushing yards and scored 34 rushing touchdowns during his college career, and Kliff Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray finish as a top-10 QB as a rookie. Kingsbury’s scheme came first situation-neutral pace and uncrowded rate during his four seasons in Arizona, also producing runs against light boxes at a high rate.
Daniels is a truly elite runner Who led all NCAA quarterbacks last year in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.72), while leading all Power Five QBs in rushing yards (1,250), YPC (10.4), scrambles (55) and PFF Rushing Grade (92.4 – best ever). Running Not Only Increases a Fantasy Quarterback’s Advantage but also his floorand Daniels will likely run as much as any QB in the league as a beginner.
Daniels is unquestionably a risk of injurybut high upside picks (assuming not Superflex) make a lot of sense with the quarterback position deeper than ever this year.
Quarterbacks I Like Less Than Consensus
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (ECR =DB7 vs. My rating =QB11)
Toca suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year no NFL QB has ever tried it before. He was having “good days and bad days” in May, although Dealing with an injury in training camp is nothing new for Burrow.
Injuries aside, Burrow has other red flags. Even if we completely discount his shockingly bad first six games last season (5.3 YPA!) thanks to the calf injury, the overall change in Cincinnati’s offense suggests a larger problem. Burrow became a checkdown artist since opposing defenses began employing two tall safeties at high speed. He ranked 38th in field pass rate in 2021 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last season, and reports out of Bengals camp suggest more of the same in 2024. Quarterbacks can succeed with a low aDOT, but truly elite fantasy production becomes much more difficult (see: Patrick Mahomes), especially without rushing.
Burrow was great after Cincinnati’s bye when healthy last seasonand it is possible Cincinnati passes more often without Joe Mixon. But Burrow is unlikely to run much at this stage of his career, and he’s managed just 6.98 YPA since 2022 (26 games) while knowingly playing much more underneath. There is risk here beyond injury history.
That said, my rating is less an indictment of Burrow and more a product of an absolutely stacked top 10 this includes dual-threat QBs who don’t have to face the Ravens, Steelers and Browns defenses for 35% of their schedule.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (Photo: Disclosure)ECR =QB10 vs. My rating =QB12)
Love was QB4 in fantasy points per game during weeks 11-18 last season, and the Packers are well-coached with a loaded WR group. However, his 7.2 YPA ranked 13th, and it’s a mark that typically results in far fewer than 32 touchdown passes. Volume helps, but Love’s 5.8% TD rate ranked in the top three in the league and will be especially difficult to sustain with low efficiency.
Love benefited from the second-most red zone attempts (100) last season, but Green Bay added big back Josh Jacobs during the offseason. The Packers scored 76.2% of his touchdowns through the air last year, while Jacobs averaged 11 rushing TDs in 2020-2022. Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that the Packers will score a touchdown in a record of 95% of their goal possessions like last season, which was the highest rate since at least the 1990s.
Perhaps we should give Love’s second half more credit since it was his first year as a starter, but it’s also worth noting that it was a small sample. Love also generally didn’t perform well in terms of stable forecasting metricsand his big leap in the second half was helped by improvement under pressurewhich is not very reliable when predicting future performance.
Love should have a productive fantasy season, but it is a little surpassed thanks to last year’s touchdown success.
