Sure, you might think that most people would just want the No. 1 pick in their fantasy football drafts, but it’s all contextual – some might even prefer the 12th pick, depending on the season. Fantasy analysts Scott Pianowski and Matt Harmon debate the best way to start a 2024 draft, with one side taking the top-four route and the other going 5-8.
The case for a 1-4 pick
The first point I want to make is that draft spots don’t have to be stressful. Any draft slot – any draft strategy – can be a winner if you pick the right players. Don’t worry before the season even starts.
But if you’re asking me to pick my own spot in the draft, that’s something different. I’ll take something in the top four, please.
Maybe it’s counterintuitive, but the fourth choice is probably my overall preference. So I’m looking at any one of this Fab Four – Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall or Ja’Marr Chase – and my second-round pick isn’t that far from the middle. My best drafts tend to happen when I’m not behind the wheel on either side, which allows me to pay more attention to the draft.
I know I’m not alone with my initial roster-building thinking – I’ll be looking for an anchor and multiple impact receivers with my first few picks. Tight end is a semi-priority, but probably not in the first four rounds. And the quarterback is so deep this year that I’ll go there when I get there.
Make sure you give Hall a fair shake. He spread his wings in the second half of last year, and the Jets may have the best roster in the AFC. The offensive line is a monster. If Aaron Rodgers is just an average quarterback, the Jets make the playoffs. If Rodgers actually has something left, this team could go to the moon.
Lamb and Chase probably speak for themselves – Lamb broke the football in the second half of last year, and Chase has always looked like the type of player who will throw a 20-touchdown season sooner or later. I put them a tier above Tyreek Hill (a god, but age must be considered) and Justin Jefferson (probably QB-proof, but I’d like to see how that plays out). And McCaffrey’s versatility and touchdown equity remain lovely things, even if the Niners don’t have their usual juggernaut group on the offensive line.
Some leagues give coaches the option to set their draft slot priority, and these are my first four preferred slots: 4-3-2-1. The talent pool tends to shrink in the second and third rounds, but that’s usually not the case in the first, when picking early is often an advantage.
Disagree? That’s why we have a game. Go build your masterpiece, paint your Mona Lisa. -Scott Pianoowski
The case for a 5-8 pick
The good news for drafters is that I don’t see many obscure spots or obvious players to avoid in the first round of drafts this fantasy football season. However, one area I particularly enjoyed selecting is the middle of Round 1, between Picks 5-8.
In this range, you’ll find the ADPs of Bijan Robinson and, if things go right, the aforementioned Hall, who I consider key players at the running back position. Robinson and Hall were top-10 scorers last season and now should receive a boost in the ecosystem thanks to the quarterback additions. In Robinson’s case, the coaching staff’s rotation should also help increase Atlanta’s overall offensive efficiency.
I want to come out of the first three rounds with a heavyweight anchor at the running back position. If you somehow lose both backs in picks 5 to 8, you can still accomplish the task. Round 1 will have you draft a high-end WR1 producer with excellent ceiling/floor projection like Amon-Ra St. Brown and then turn your attention to the Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry tier in Round 2. These players are not in the same sweet spot in their careers as Robinson and Hall, but that’s why they’re second-round bets.
If you want to go younger, you can add Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane, who also don’t have risk-free profiles, but we know the tangible scoring advantage.
I typically like to have a running back position covered in Round 2 because the third round features a lot of strong bets on wide receivers. My favorite teams are the ones where I have two receivers and a running back locked in late in the third round. As my colleague Scott Pianowski told me last year, you want to “get receivers who can start themselves.” If you don’t have two by the third round, I think you’re going to have trouble in this quest.
Once Round 4 begins, I typically open up the possibilities to the board. There are more interesting wide receiver picks, no doubt, and depending on your league, you could even have Josh Jacobs or Rachaad White fall to you. At the same time, I won’t rule out considering an overall position if an elite TE1 is still out there or if I simply like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes more than the guys around them. -Matt Harmon
