Players retire, teammates pay bail, but one thing never goes away… ADP.
Season after season, we use average draft position (ADP) data as one of our main points of reference for knowing when to draft players based on their perceived value. But how can we use ADP to our advantage in 2024?
Remember that a player’s ADP is a suggestion – not a guideline. ADP represents the average position of players across a wide range of fantasy drafts at a given point in time. ADP is often considered one of the most critical parts of your fantasy draft. So, as we prepare for fantasy season, let’s talk about what to keep in mind when it comes to ADP.
Theme for 2024: Inflated Receiver ADPs
Gone are the years of first-round-heavy running backs! There are currently seven receivers being drafted into the first round of 12-team leagues and the madness doesn’t stop there. About 30 receivers are being selected in the first five rounds. Rookies like Marvin Harrison Jr. (18.7 overall ADP) and Malik Nabers (70.4 overall ADP) have aggressive ADPs, and we haven’t even reached the peak of draft season hype yet.
But there are several things to keep in mind specifically with ADP receptors. Round 1 receivers are there for a reason. They are reliable, consistent, elite components of their respective offenses that will not go away. Craft them with confidence.
The second round is where things start to get a little complicated. We have several young players like MHJ and Drake London (actually going to Round 3) that we are potentially drafting at the ceiling along with veterans like Davante Adams and Mike Evans in potentially risky offenses. Rounds 3 and 4 feature receivers in crowded offenses like Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins and DJ Moore.
Be careful when arriving at already inflated ADPs. Don’t be afraid to deviate from the crowd and recruit a higher-level player from another position. While it may seem critical to capture multiple receivers early on, don’t force the issue. There are great mid-round options later on, you can pair as a solid WR2 with one of the elite receivers from Round 1 and still build a strong lineup.
The Fallout: RB Dead Zone isn’t quite dead
With receiving ADPs pushed up, something needs to be pushed down, and the result is depth at other positions. The RB dead zone is typically seen in rounds 3 through 6. Round 3 features a high upside player like De’Von Achane. Round four features James Cook. But, Round 6 in particular offers true value RB1s in Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White, and Raheem Mostert.
The Patriots will likely be very run-heavy this season and the newly paid Stevenson should be the focal point of their offense. Zamir White has a chance to be this year’s Rachaad White. Mostert is coming off an RB1 season.
Don’t be afraid to dip your toes into the dead zone. There are certainly some red flag players, so don’t attack them recklessly. Focus on benefits and value. Drafting the right dead zone running back could be a league-winning move.
Added Bonus: Quarterback Depth
With the rise of young players like Anthony Richardson, CJ Stroud and Jordan Love, the quarterback is extremely deep this season. Last year’s overall QB3 – Dak Prescott – is being drafted as QB9. Players like Justin Herbert (who should be ready for Week 1 after a foot injury) and Trevor Lawrence are being drafted outside the top 15 at the position. Add to that exciting rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, advantageous schedules for players like Jared Goff, and injury discounts for players like Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson. You can draft the player of your choice at any time during the draft.
This kind of freedom allows you the flexibility to build your lineup however you want.
Keep in mind, however, that quarterback depth doesn’t mean you have to pass on early-round quarterbacks. This is not a late-round quarterback mandate. Top quarterbacks are still excellent values, and I personally drafted Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts on retooled teams this offseason. The beauty of this season, however, is not being forced to craft it within a certain range.
A New Look: Constrained Layers
In previous seasons, Travis Kelce was the standard, often drafted in the first round and generally separated from his peers. In 2024, top-end ADP will look very different. Sam LaPorta is the top-ranked tight end, with either him or Kelce being the first tight end off the board at the end of Round 2/start of Round 3 – the two have nearly identical ADP. So there’s a little gap in ADP for the next guys.
The way I’m approaching tight end this season is sticking to the levels. While I use tiers at all positions, I will be very strict with tiers for tight ends in 2024. There is a clear, defined Tier 1 with LaPorta, Kelce, Trey McBride, and Mark Andrews. These players are unquestionably the top two in their respective offenses, with proven upside at TE1 and no competition from another tight end on their team. I would feel extremely comfortable with any tight end in Tier 1 and would have no problem, say, losing LaPorta to get Andrews because they offer a similar range of results.
Level 2 features Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, and Evan Engram. Again, these guys have similar results – and similar obstacles to overcome.
Tier 3 is extremely large, featuring players with more defined roles but limited upside, like Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz, and players facing new offenses or unknown factors, like Pat Freiermuth and Brock Bowers.
Focusing on one level and planning accordingly will be key to getting your choices right in 2024.
Don’t forget: fantasy is more fun when you select YOUR guys
Fantasy Football is even more fun when we field players we truly believe in. Are you a real Drake London, like me? Get your man! Take him in the first round? No, don’t go crazy. Instead, pick him with confidence in the second round and don’t worry if you’re “reaching” or “drafting a player to the ceiling” because of ADP.
Build a team that will win your league And make you do somersaults every Sunday.
