The story below is a collaboration between writers at MLB.com and Yahoo Sports, who are joining forces this season to cover baseball topics.
The long season tends to have a surprise or two up its sleeve.
On this date in 2023, the D-backs’ chances of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs projections, were 17.4%. They ended up in the World Series. On the same date in 2021, the sub-.500 Cardinals were just 1.4% shy of making a run for a wild card spot. In other words, as long as there is a chance, there is a chance.
Which team can achieve this unexpected raise in October 2024? From Friday, FanGraphs postseason odds had 15 competitors with relatively robust odds – almost 40% or more. Another eight clubs were below 1% (six of them, in fact, at 0%). That leaves seven long-shot candidates, each of whom fell between 3% and 20%. (These odds influence not only the standings, but also the teams’ true talent level and remaining strength of the schedule.)
To help determine which club could surpass those numbers to claim a playoff spot, we asked seven writers from Yahoo Sports and MLB.com to make their case for each.
The teams are listed below in order of postseason odds entering Friday’s games.
Postseason odds on Friday: 15.1%
How They Could Do It: Spike at the Right Time
Although they haven’t been above .500 since late May, when their winning percentage peaked at 29-27, the Giants have sat at the bottom of the NL wild card mess and appear to be playing their best baseball just in time. to do a downward push into the stretch. They weren’t exactly big buyers at the trade deadline — in fact, they traded for one of their best hitters, Jorge Soler — but their decision to keep Blake Snell, despite rumors about his potential availability, immediately paid off, with Snell playing a no-hitter in his first start after the deadline. It took a while, but Snell is finally starting to look like what San Francisco paid for as the grand finale to their highly active winter of free agency spending.
And while Soler is out and Jung-Hoo Lee is out for the year with a shoulder injury, Matt Chapman is another of San Francisco’s big offseason additions who has been spectacular lately, ranking as one of the best hitters in baseball since the All-Star break. Add the return of veteran left-hander Robbie Ray to the rotation and the impressive burst of power from shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald, and suddenly this lineup looks far more formidable than at any point in the first few months of the season.
San Francisco’s schedule also offers the opportunity to make tangible progress in the standings if the team continues to play well at the right time; September will feature six more games against Arizona, six more against San Diego and three at home against St. Louis to close out the regular season. It won’t be easy, but after a few seasons of maddening mediocrity following 2021’s miraculous 107-win campaign, this year’s team appears to have enough top-end talent to overcome the messy middle and claim a spot in the NL’s wildcard picture.
– Jordan Shusterman (Yahoo Sports)
2. Saint Louis Cardinals
Postseason odds on Friday: 14.5%
How They Could Do It: Important Veterans Going Back in Time
If the Cardinals are going to make the postseason, it will be one thing: offense. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado didn’t have their typical All-Star caliber seasons, but St. Louis remained in contention thanks to its starting pitching. If the Cardinals have any hope of advancing to October, they need these two to return to true form and help out the likes of Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn and trade deadline acquisition Tommy Pham.
The Cardinals also need to find a way to add some more power to their game, as they currently rank 21st in MLB in homers. Without the help of the long ball, St. Louis will have to rely on other ways to push the plate if they want to have a chance.
– Russell Dorsey (Yahoo Sports)
Postseason odds on Friday: 8.5%
How They Could Do It: Patch Holes With Capable Reinforcements
The Rays sold more at the trade deadline than any other team on this list, shipping several key players throughout July. But the essence of Rays baseball is that there is always more talent waiting in the wings, ready to fill those roster spots. Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs are now in the rotation for the first time this year after returning from injuries. Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson, both acquisitions with a short buyout period, are in the lineup.
The same goes for Curtis Mead, a top-100 prospect before this season. Junior Caminero, #3 MLB Outlook at the moment, it has raised Triple-A and the numbers will increase soon. All of these players have a lot to prove, of course, and the Rays (outscored by 45 runs this season) have five games to make up for it in the wild card standings. It will be a difficult task given recent negotiations, but if there’s one team here that has made a habit of defying expectations, it’s this one.
– Andrew Simon (MLB.com)
Postseason odds on Friday: 6.8%
How could they do it: harness some power
Because they ultimately decided not to sell, the Cubs have what several legitimate contenders still don’t: a solid rotation. Their big four – Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Javier Assad – have a combined ERA of 3.22. The bullpen has posted an MLB-best 2.61 ERA since June 1. Consider this, at least for now, resolved.
But the Cubs have a .382 hitting percentage since the All-Star break, which probably won’t be enough to support the pitching staff. “Just hit more homers” isn’t practical advice, but if the Cubs can get more, especially from Dansby Swanson (.230/.300/.357) and new addition Isaac Paredes (.237/.345/.424), neither of whom have regained form By 2023, they would be in very good shape.
– Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru (MLB.com)
Friday postseason odds: 3.9%
How they could do it: Lean on your rotation
Is getting swept at home by the Padres a good look for an aspiring NL wild card? Obviously not. Neither is the 4.5 game difference between Pittsburgh and a playoff spot. But the Buccos are worth keeping an eye on just because their starting pitching is so good. Since phenom Paul Skenes debuted on May 11, the Pirates have the second-lowest ERA rotation in baseball. Fellow rookie pitcher Jared Jones, who has been sidelined with a strain since early July, is expected to begin rehab on Thursday. The stalwart Mitch Keller has the sixth-lowest ERA in the National League.
And while Pittsburgh’s offense can be a frustrating slog at times, there are signs of life. Oneil Cruz has an .824 OPS since May 1st. Bryan Reynolds was an All-Star for a reason. Rowdy Tellez turned his season around after a horrible first two months. Catcher Joey Bart has been a sensational post-hype prospect recovery project. If this group can score enough runs, the Pirates might have a chance.
– Jake Mintz (Yahoo Sports)
Postseason odds on Friday: 3.8%
How They Could Do It: Get Some Big Hitters Into Action
The Rangers return virtually the same lineup as their 2023 World Series-winning club, a team that led the American League in average and OPS and tied for the AL lead in home runs. But Adolis García (.655 OPS) and Marcus Semien (.727 OPS) have retreated at the plate this season, while Josh Jung and Evan Carter have been limited by injuries.
With Tyler Mahle back and Jacob deGrom set to return soon, the Rangers should have the arms to run — but they’ll need their bats to be excellent down the stretch to win the AL West or earn a wild card spot.
– Theo DeRosa (MLB.com)
Postseason odds on Friday: 3.7%
How They Did It: Finally Win Some Close Games
With a run differential of over 45 this season, the Reds have a expected record of 63-52, but they surpassed that mark in seven games, thanks in part to their 9-20 (.310) record in one-run games. Only the White Sox have a lower winning percentage in these games.
While Cincinnati would need to leapfrog six teams to clinch the NL’s third wild card spot, there is still plenty of baseball to be played. If the Reds start to see their fortunes in one-run games change, they will have the talent to make a deep playoff run, especially with the form of Elly De La Cruz (1.027 OPS since July 8) and Hunter Greene (0.27 ERA since July 6). ) I’ve been playing lately.
– Thomas Harrigan (MLB.com)
