Before we delve into specific players, I want to focus on a general fantasy baseball trading concept that is essential for April trades.
At all times of the year, smart managers will combine their work in the commercial market with potential opportunities under the exemption. Both areas are clearly essential to building a championship squad. And with the goal of using the April trades to create free agent opportunities, managers should look to make 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trades right now. Keep in mind that these trades are often the most difficult to make. Many coaches will be reluctant to let go of the best player in the business. But if the pot is sufficiently sweetened, these deals will be possible.
Making 2-for-1 deals is especially advantageous in April because it opens up roster space to aggressively pursue waiver wire options. There are valuable free agents at every point in the season, but the most valuable long-term contributors are available during the first two months. For example, Orioles top prospect Heston Kjerstad was recently promoted and the managers who created the roster room had the ability to strike. And even with veteran players, this is the best time to grab those who are starting out well in hopes that they are at the beginning of a career year.
By doing 2 for 1 trades now, you don’t need to win the trade. I’m okay with accepting a small loss on such a trade because I believe in my ability to pass on the new roster spot until someone special emerges. To be clear, 2-for-1 deals aren’t the only ones you should pursue now, but they should be part of the plan in the coming weeks. Now, let’s check out some names that could fill trade talks.
Buy low
Jonathan India (2B, Cincinnati Reds)
Batting .174 with zero homers and a pair of steals, India’s value could be at an all-time low right now. It also doesn’t help that he’s been dealing with an illness the last few days. But there are many reasons to hope he recovers soon. The 27-year-old’s strikeout rate is in line with his usual grades and his walk rate is the best of his four-year career. India were plagued by a BABIP of 0.226, and their expected stats via Statcast are much higher than their actual marks.
Finally, with all of their appearances coming from the opening position, India have a lot of advantages when it comes to turning the tables.
Sell high
Ezequiel Tovar (SS, Colorado Rockies)
Tovar’s managers could easily prepare the argument that he is at the start of a breakout season. His .830 OPS is a huge improvement over last year, and at age 22, he is at a stage in his career where rapid growth is possible. And of course, playing half his games at hitter-friendly Coors Field makes the shortstop even easier to get behind. Unfortunately, the reality on Tovar is that his strikeout rate is abysmal, his walk rate is abysmal, and while his batted ball tendencies have improved somewhat, they are nowhere near what would be needed to maintain his eye-popping .426 BABIP the eyes. Tovar should continue to play well enough to remain on most rosters, but he is not an impact player.
Buy high
Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles)
In short, everything Henderson is doing right now is sustainable. The 22-year-old is hitting .287 with seven home runs and four steals, without the benefit of a high BABIP (.317) or a ridiculous HR/FB rate (24%). In fact, Statcast gives Henderson a .294 xBA which is slightly higher than his actual mark. As the bench setter for a dynamic Orioles lineup, he is a virtual key to scoring 100 runs. And the quality of his teammates should only increase as the season progresses, as Baltimore has so many potential stars working out at Triple-A. Henderson won’t be stingy in trade negotiations, but he’s the type of player I’d pick when making an aggressive 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 offer.
Sell cheap
Corbin Carroll (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)
I make this recommendation with some trepidation, as I am well aware of how valuable Carroll can be when he gets hot. After all, I predicted during spring training that the 23-year-old would lead the majors in steals this year. But beyond its fleet feet, something seems wrong with this spark plug from the line. Carroll is struggling to provide any power, as evidenced by his lone home run and average exit velocity of 133.6 mph. And this drop in energy comes on the heels of the same problem that existed during the second half of last season, when he hit just seven home runs in 257 at-bats.
The assumption here is that Carroll eventually raises his average to the .265 range (he’s currently batting .215), but falls well short of 20 home runs. To be clear, I wouldn’t trade Carroll at a deep discount, but I would be willing to trade him for someone who was drafted 10 picks later and started well.
One final comment: I’m not interested in trading Carroll for two average players. This is the exactly kind of business I don’t want right now.
