What’s going on with the Houston Astros? And can they change that before it’s too late?

Over the past decade, few things in baseball have been more reliable than the success of the Houston Astros. Since 2017, the Stros have the second-most wins in MLB, and in that time, the orange and navy juggernaut became the first franchise to make it seven straight American League championship series. They’ve appeared in four Fall Classics along the way, winning in 2017 and 2022.

The Astros have been the sun rising and setting, the tides lapping against the shore. All October roads led to and passed through Houston. It’s the closest thing to a dynasty that baseball has seen since the New York Yankees in the late 1990s. José Altuve, Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez: These are some of the names and faces that defined this era of baseball’s playoffs.

But now, for the first time in a long time, there seems to be darkness at the end of the tunnel.

Nearly a month into the 2024 season, the Houston Astros are a paltry 7-17. Only three clubs – the White Sox, Rockies and Marlins – have worse records. Even the underfunded and soon-to-be-nomadic Oakland Athletics rank above Houston in the American League West.

Which leads to some key questions: How did this happen? Why has this roster – surprisingly similar to last year’s division-winning group – produced such horrible baseball? What is the probability that the tide will change? What are the reasons for a legitimate concern and what is a small sample gobbledygook?

The season is still young. April has not yet turned into May and there is enough time for Houston to right the ship. But at the same time, the warning signs for this team are clear and loud and impossible to ignore.

rotation injuries

Houston has a full rotation of elite pitchers on the injured list right now. That group includes Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, José Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander returned from the shelf last week after missing three weeks with shoulder inflammation. It’s a run of bad luck that has exceeded the typical attrition rate and forced several of Houston’s second-tier arms into the fire.

Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his first start of the season, was a miracle find, but the other unproven starters struggled, with JP France, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arighetti looking overmatched. In 50 combined innings across 12 starts, this trio allowed 49 runs.

From here, things can get better. Houston is hopeful Valdez will be back next week. Verlander still projects as a frontcourt starter at age 41, even if injury concerns are omnipresent at this point in his career. Javier was playing well before a neck issue sent him to the shelf. That trio, alongside the suddenly masterful Blanco, would provide a formidable rotation in the playoffs — if Houston can get there.

But Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy won’t be expected back for now. Javier does not yet have a return schedule. Verlander is a “baseball old-timer,” which means his body could fail at any moment. The discomfort in Valdez’s elbow hasn’t exactly resolved itself, and it’s the type of ailment that could recur or worsen. Blanco’s record is less than the distance to the left line at Minute Maid Park. Improvements from the second-tier starters are essential if Houston is to climb out of this already imposing trench.

Bullpen catastrophe

In the offseason, Houston made an uncharacteristically flashy move, signing Josh Hader, one of the game’s most dominant closers, to a five-year, $95 million contract. His addition was designed to bolster an already fantastic bullpen led by Ryan Pressley and Bryan Abreu. Instead, Houston’s relief corps has been the club’s most important anchor and the main reason behind its early-season struggles.

Eight times this year, new manager Joe Espada has passed the ball to Hader, Pressley or Abreu with a lead in late innings. Six of those times, a save was missed. That’s an unsustainably bad rate — the worst in baseball, in fact — for any bullpen, much less for such an expensive unit designed to dominate foes in late innings.

That said, if the Astros’ pen held just two more of those leads, the club would now be a disappointing but not surprising 9-15. This is an area where improvement seems inevitable, despite the recent run of poor results.

Offensive bad luck

Despite all the injuries, the late-game chaos and the horrific losses, Houston’s vaunted offense, for the most part, held up its end of the bargain. Yes, José Abreu looks crazy, unfortunately, and impending free agent Alex Bregman stumbles out, but most of this lineup sizzles. Houston’s offense, 7-17 record aside, performed like a playoff team.

To wit, the Astros rank fourth in baseball in team wRC+, behind only the Dodgers, Orioles and Braves. Altuve should be in the AL MVP mix. Álvarez remains one of the most fearsome hitters in the game. Tucker is a force. The second-tier guys like Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers have been fabulous.

But there is clearly a gap here between offensive output and continued production. Houston, despite the nice numbers, ranks 19th in the MLB in runs scored. The culprit is a combination of small sample size, poor base running, and poor offensive sequencing. Houston’s production with runners in scoring position is notably worse (closer to league average) than its overall production. It’s hard to say how much of this is luck versus skill, and some of it will certainly improve with time, but it’s important to note that the 2023 San Diego Padres have been sunk by historically poor performance with runners on base.

So, can the Astros dig themselves out of this hole? Possibly. Possibly not. This team is probably a real value club with 90 wins. Unfortunately for them, they will need to play like a 100-win team until the end if they want to continue their magnificent seven-year run.