April has changed to May and one month of the MLB season is already behind us.
It’s the time of year when the cement begins to harden and set. Small-sample theater plays are gradually becoming reliable.
And there is a fine line between legitimate concern and frantic overreaction. The 2019 World Series champion Washington Nationals, for example, started the season with a 19-31 record. A rocky spring does not preclude a successful summer or an unforgettable autumn.
With that in mind, let’s look at some early-season drops to try and separate fact from fiction.
Last season, Carroll was the main character. As a 22-year-old rookie, the D-backs’ outfielder finished fifth in NL MVP voting behind 25 homers and 54 steals. Rising to the top of Arizona’s lineup, the unanimous Rookie of the Year led the underdog Snakes to the Fall Classic. Along the way, Carroll appeared to be embarking on a long career as a prototypical leadoff hitter, a catalytic pest that would trouble NL West clubs for years to come.
Instead, the sophomore slump was not kind. In 29 games, the goateed outfielder has a .193 batting average and a .538 OPS with just one home run. His batted ball data under the hood supports this poor result. Carroll’s defense and running ability give him a monumental floor, but his offensive performance has declined so far this season and is a big reason for Arizona’s slow start.
Carroll’s average exit velocity on strike zone pitches has plummeted from 90 mph in 2023 to 86.6 mph. That’s the fourth-lowest mark in MLB among players with at least 200 pitches seen this season; Adam Frazier, who was nicknamed “Captain Slapdick” by Mariners fans during his year in Seattle, is playing harder baseball than Carroll.
That’s the kind of statistical change that normally implies some kind of injury, but Carroll didn’t mention any physical discomfort, even if he had some problems with his right shoulder in 2023. It’s also worth noting that the Seattle-born outfielder hit just four home runs in the final two months of last season and was never an elite exit velocity guy.
Maybe his two hard balls on Monday against the Dodgers, including a deep fly that would have been a home run in 17 of 30 ballparks, are a harbinger of better days ahead. But if Carroll is actually healthy, this sudden drop in contact quality is worth at least a little concern until things change.
This is another sobering reminder not to believe in spring training. Cruz was a March revelation, hitting seven homers in 46 trips to the plate after missing most of 2023 with a torn ACL. Unfortunately, this spring performance did not carry over into meaningful games – quite the opposite.
Cruz’s 45 punches are tied for the MLB lead. He has just six extra-base hits. Their shortstop defense is rated poorly. Both his hit rate (swing-and-misses) and his chase rate (swings on out-of-zone pitches) are terrible. Cruz usually still sprays the ball when he makes contact, but power means nothing when you can’t use it. The graveyards of baseball history are full of such players.
Most concerning are Cruz’s numbers against same-side pitches. The left-handed swinger is just 3-for-32 with one walk and 14 strikeouts against lefties. That brings his career left-field OPS to a pointlessly microscopic .480.
Now, Cruz’s injury history and cavernous ceiling mean the Pirates will give him patience and grace as he tries to capitalize on his talent. But same-side fights are a huge red flag, which I believe will prevent him from becoming a cornerstone of the franchise. I’m not panicking, but my hands are sweating.
A pivotal year for Houston’s playful third baseman got off to a putrid start. Set to hit free agency for the first time at the end of the season, Bregman has a .577 OPS in 26 games. Most importantly, he hadn’t hit a baseball over the fence until Tuesday. It’s hard to secure a big deal on the open market without some chips.
Bregman’s poor performance in the home run column is instructive about two larger issues: He’s hitting a lot of grounders and he’s not pulling the baseball. Bregman implemented some swing changes during the offseason — most notably, altering the way he carries his hands — and that could be negatively impacting his timing.
But overall, I’m not panicking. Bregman’s exit velocity numbers are in line with his track record, implying he is not suffering from physical decline. And the elite swing decisions that helped him reach base at a 37% rate over his nine-year career haven’t gone anywhere either. The strikeout-to-walk ratio is still excellent.
Once Bregman becomes more comfortable with his new mechanics — or abandons them and goes back to his old habits — it’s reasonable to expect his numbers to look more Bregman.
The Padres reshaped their rotation over the winter. Out were Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Michael King and Randy Vásquez entered in exchange for Juan Soto, as well as Dylan Cease, acquired at the end of spring training to be the ace. It was a team with a lot of questions, but returnees Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove were prepared to provide reliability and continuity. Instead, Darvish spent time on the injured list and Musgrove served as one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
The Padres don’t need Musgrove to be dominant; they just need him to be competent. But so far he hasn’t come close. In seven starts, the kid from San Diego has a 6.94 ERA in 35 innings. His expected ERA based on batted ball data is even worse. His fastball velocity dropped about 1 mph, from 93 to 92, a small but crucial difference. The sweeper Musgrove added to his already crowded arsenal over the winter is making all his pitches break together.
A powerful and positive presence at the club, Musgrove is respected throughout the organization, but the good vibes only go so far when you’re not hanging out. The San Diego team is already short-handed, with Darvish just returning and Vásquez on the shelf, so Musgrove can’t afford to waste time getting it right. Something is clearly wrong with the veteran right-hander, and until his fastball velocity picks up again, things are unlikely to improve.
The Orioles are in a complicated situation that dates back to last year. When world closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in late September, it created a hole in Baltimore’s bullpen. Bautista is irreplaceable, but the Orioles signed legendary closer Craig Kimbrel to fill some of the void. The nine-time All-Star was magnificent in the ninth until last weekend, when he made two saves against the Athletics and was ruled out of Sunday’s game with upper back tightness.
Kimbrel has been operating on a tightrope for a few years now, oscillating between dominant and disastrous. But as he showed with his October implosion with the Phillies last year, he can’t be considered a top postseason option. Yennier Cano, who had a breakout 2023 campaign, is the obvious candidate to take over ninth-inning duties in Baltimore, but the Birds need to make their bullpen a priority at the trade deadline. The reason for panic won’t come now, but later, in October, if the O’s turn to this version of Kimbrel in a crucial situation.
