Are the Phillies really that good? Or was their schedule easy?

The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball.

Over 48 games, the fun Fightin’s are a stout 34-14. They are five games ahead of the Atlanta Braves atop the National League East entering play on Tuesday, the club’s largest division lead since the final game of the 2011 season. Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are all hitting like All-Stars. Philadelphia’s starting lineup, bolstered by the rise of left-hander Ranger Suarez, boasts the lowest rotation ERA in MLB. The thunderous baseball circus that debuted during the 2022 NLDS is moving forward.

But how much better are these Phillies? Is this team truly an improved version of itself or simply the beneficiary of an outrageously comfortable start-to-season schedule?

The answer is yes.

How easy has Philadelphia’s path been? So far in 2024, the Phillies have played just three games against a team with a record currently above .500, and all three came in the opening weekend against the Braves. Since then, Philadelphia has played 19 games against five of the six worst teams in MLB: the Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Angels and White Sox. Other than Atlanta, the Phillies haven’t seen a division leader. And with the exception of the topsy-turvy Padres, who they defeated in San Diego in late April, Philly hasn’t even faced a second-place team.

The combined winning percentage of Philadelphia’s opponents this year is currently .465, by far the lowest in MLB. The next easiest schedule belongs to Tampa Bay at .477. No other team has an SOS below .480.

That’s an ultra-smooth Charmin lineup. Cozier than Egyptian cotton. Far from being a challenge. The smoothest navigation possible. But several things can be true at the same time: the schedule is bad, It is the Phillies have been better.

The starting rotation, with a league-best 2.63 ERA, led the way. By comparison, the Philadelphia team’s ERA was an ugly 4.87 at this point last year. The difference isn’t personnel — most of these pitchers wore red pinstripes a year ago — but internal development.

Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been their typically valuable workhorses at the top of the group. Behind them, lanky changeup artist Christopher Sánchez has become a reliable mid-rotation arm. Spencer Turnbull has phenomenally replaced Taijuan Walker, who has been the relatively weak link since his return in early May. But by far the biggest development so far has been the emergence of Suarez.

In ’22 and ’23, the cold-blooded lefty performed as a capable No. 3 in the regular season before elevating his game in October. This year, after being hampered by numerous injuries and obstacles in previous spring training, the 28-year-old Venezuelan was healthy and available for the entire camp. And that’s made a big difference: He currently has the second-lowest ERA in baseball and should be considered a legitimate Cy Young candidate.

Offensively, the Phillies were boosted in large part by Alec Bohm’s campaign. The bushy-haired lord of the limbs has been a contact-oriented hitter since his debut in 2020. But this year, the 27-year-old third baseman has added more power to his game without sacrificing his bat-to-ball skills; Bohm is shooting the ball more often and hitting it harder on average. Additionally, his once-poor defense at the hot corner has improved significantly. Quite simply, Bohm was the best third baseman in MLB early on.

His hot start helped the lineup weather Trea Turner’s long stint on the injured list. Timely bursts from utility players Edmundo Sosa and Kody Clemens also filled the gaps. Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh and JT Realmuto have been more good than great, and Nick Castellanos’ continued offensive ineptitude is a real concern, but Harper and Stott have provided enough pop to keep the Phillies moving.

At its core, this Phillies club is remarkably unchanged compared to the previous two seasons. There’s a little more depth to the list, but nothing groundbreaking.

Before a recent game against the Mets at Citi Field, captain Rob Thomson was asked if 2024 was starting to feel like something special. The baseball veteran offered something between a laugh and a groan, dismissing the idea and highlighting his football club’s continuity while vaguely pointing toward the never-ending season and indicating that postseason success is the team’s true goal.

Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs expressed the sentiment after that day’s game.

“It makes sense [special], you know, since ’22,” he said. “You have a lot of the same guys here that were on the ’22 team, the ’23 team. Everyone is very comfortable with each other.”

He’s right. This team is mostly made up of the same players, but thanks in part to an easier schedule, they are playing better.

And all the Phillies can do is continue to beat the teams in front of them. Their schedule will eventually get more difficult. An imposing stretch against the Twins, Guardians, Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers lurks just after the All-Star break. The five-game lead over the Braves in the division will come in handy when the tough days of the summer arrive.

Atlanta probably has more pitching depth, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, but if the Phillies’ arms stay healthy, they have a chance to conquer the East. Their odds of winning the division, according to FanGraphs, increased from 6.9% on opening day to 41.8% heading into Tuesday’s game.

Even if Philadelphia doesn’t end up winning the NL East, the longer they keep things close, the more aggressive the Braves will have to be in their lineup decisions moving forward. This can only benefit Philadelphia in October.

In the Braves’ ideal scenario, they would have enough leverage to rest some or all of their starting pitchers at some point during the summer. Reynaldo López and Chris Sale have been excellent, but neither has pitched more than 140 innings since 2019. Charlie Morton has been reliable, but carries all the injury risks that come with being 40 years old. Managing workloads would be a simpler task for Atlanta, with division leadership.

It would also give Atlanta the opportunity to test its two top prospects, Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, in low-pressure starting roles. But the smaller the gap, the less Atlanta can plan for the playoffs. It’s less of an issue with their position players because all of the Braves play almost every day, but it’s something to follow with Atlanta’s starting rotation.

It all presents a very different dynamic than the 14-game lead the Braves enjoyed last season. Because although Harper and Co. have made the playoffs the past two seasons, they have done so despite dismal springs. The club’s record through 48 games in 2023 was 22-26. In 2022, Philadelphia is 21-27. Both years featured busy summers that made October baseball possible.

This time, the Phillies made things much, much easier on themselves. Instead of a hole to climb out of, they built a perch, giving themselves a leash and freedom of action. They had a peaceful path and made the most of it.