James Paxton will have a 5-0 record and 2.84 ERA in his Friday night start at Cincinnati, which is quite remarkable considering the Dodgers lefty walked as many batters (24) as he struck out (24) in 44⅓ innings of his first eight games and is ready to send out a search party for one of his best secondary pitches.
“I don’t really know where it is,” Paxton said of his fastball, a key part of his three-pitch repertoire for most of his 11-year career until this season. “I’m trying to find out. We’ve been playing around with him, throwing him in the bullpen and stuff like that, and I still haven’t been able to find him.”
A lively four-seam fastball that averaged 90 mph at its peak in 2016 has always been Paxton’s best pitch, which he’s thrown 62% of the time over his career, and he’s complemented his heater with a joint curve he threw 19%. of the time and the cutter, which he throws 13% of the time.
But over a four-year period from 2016 to 2019, Paxton threw his cutter, which was clocked between 89 and 91 mph, almost as much as his curveball, holding opponents to a .196 average (87-for-444) with 200 strikeouts at at minus -bats ending with the cutter.
Even in his first season after Tommy John surgery, with the Boston Red Sox in 2023, Paxton had enough confidence in a diminished cutter who averaged 85.8 mph to throw it 16.5% of the time while keeping the hitters at a .191 average (13-for-68) with 26 strikeouts in at-bats ending with pitching.
Paxton, who signed a one-year, $7 million contract with the Dodger in January, he turned his corner 19.5% of the time last season, holding hitters to a .231 average (15-for-65) and 23 strikeouts in at-bats ending with pitching.
See more information: Dodgers waste Shohei Ohtani’s big game in loss to Diamondbacks
But the cutter was left on the cutting room floor for most of 2024, with Paxton throwing the pitch just 42 times (5.7%). He threw 458 fastballs (62.4%) and 191 curveballs (26%) and even leaned on a rarely used changeup in a 5-1 win over the Atlanta Braves on May 5, throwing that pitch 12 times.
“I think it shows how special he is with pitching disappointment,” assistant pitching coach Connor McGuiness said of Paxton’s ability to survive — and often thrive — on just two pitches for much of the season.
“When he’s pumping fastballs at 97-98 mph, honestly, any off-speed pitch with his delivery is going to work,” McGuiness said. “He’s had great success with that curveball this year, and I think that cutter is going to happen when that power really starts to come back.”
That’s the crux of the problem for Paxton, whose cutter has been the victim of a loss of fastball velocity since his elbow ligament replacement procedure in 2021. Paxton’s four-seamer has averaged just 90 mph this season. season, and his mower averaged just 84.2 mph, a far cry from his 2016 peak of 90.3 mph.
“I think before Tommy John, I used it a lot. It was a great pitch for me,” Paxton, 35, said of the cutter. “But I haven’t really had that since the surgery. It is not so difficult. I was throwing 89-91 mph before. Now it’s about 85 mph. And the movement is not as sharp as it was.”
See more information: Hernández: Freddie Freeman can still be great. He just needs to do more to take advantage of it
Neither Paxton nor the Dodgers gave up the field. Paxton has been working in bullpen sessions between games to fine-tune his release and is throwing longer in an effort to increase his arm strength, and if he can increase the velocity of his fastball a bit, his cutter should improve.
“The focus for him has been trying to get his delivery right and get a little more athleticism back on his pitch because some of his overall fastball execution hasn’t been where he wants it to be,” McGuiness said. “But when he gets to a point where he’s throwing the speed he wants, then that cutter will come into play.”
The loss of his mower was the least of Paxton’s worries in April. Command of all his pitches was a bigger issue, Paxton going 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA in five starts despite walking 22 batters and striking out 15 batters in 25 ⅔ innings.
But Paxton found a better rhythm in his delivery during a bullpen workout in early May, and he hasn’t hit a home run in his last two starts, giving up four hits and striking out four in six shutout innings in a 5-0 win at San Diego on May 11 and giving up three runs and seven hits and striking out two in a 7-3 win over the Reds last Friday night.
“I think the most impressive thing is he walked strangely with a lot of guys and was able to resist baserunners and still throw to limit the damage and not get so frustrated that it cost us a start,” manager Dave Roberts said. “It just speaks to experience and maturity.”
See more information: Can James Paxton deliver again? The Dodgers are counting on it
That maturity — and patience — McGuiness said, also allowed Paxton to keep any frustration over the loss of his mower at bay.
“He’s just a player, man,” McGuiness said. “I mean, he started a couple of times with just a fastball and was still able to dig deep into the game and give our offense a chance to score some runs and win.
“He’s been able to reinvent himself for now, until he’s really gotten to the point where he feels like the delivery is locked in and the fastball velocity is there. When that happens, I bet that cutter will be there too. … We’re excited for him moving forward because we feel like the best is yet to come.”
Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the beginning of each series.
This story originally appeared on Los Angeles Times.
