Thomson’s prediction of a low-scoring game pays dividends in Phillies victory

Thomson’s prediction of a low-scoring game pays dividends in Phillies victory originally appeared in NBC Sports Philadelphia

Brewers center fielder Blake Perkins led off the third inning of a scoreless tie with a double to right on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park. He scored and went to third when right fielder Jackson Chourio flied out deep to center.

With one out and the go-ahead run 90 feet from the plate, Phillies manager Rob Thomson raised his infield and. . .

Wait what? Did you play infield? In the third inning? And the tied score? When does your team lead baseball in runs scored? What in the name of Wee Willie (“Hit Them Where They Ain’t”) Keeler was Thomson thinking?

Even without the benefit of a mind reader, here is a loose translation of what the thought process might have been like:

Yes, we scored a lot. But not so much in the last week and a half. This is what happens when the first six bats in your order get cold at the same time. I trust my guys. I believe everyone will be hot as flames again. I just wouldn’t bet on that happening in the next few hours. So since our pitching has been so good, I’m going to try to stop this streak and hope we can work just enough to win.

Thomson lost the battle. Milwaukee second baseman Andrew Montaserio hit a high chopper toward third with enough time to hang that Alec Bohm’s only play was at first. Perkins, running with contact, scored easily.

But his instincts were right. It took a double from Nick Castellanos in the 10^th inning to lead the Phillies to a 2-1 victory.

“I kind of felt like it was going to be a low-scoring game for whatever reason,” he said in the postgame interview room. “Just kind of a feeling.”

Here are some numbers that might help explain why Thomson’s Spidey Sense told him it wouldn’t be a shootout.

Since their 9-8 start, the Phillies have played 45 games. Eight times they were subjected to three or fewer runs. Five of them have come in the last 11 games, in which the team is 6-5. Overall, they are 43-19, tied with the Yankees for the best record in baseball.

And the lack of power was largely a result of the drop in hitters at the top of the lineup. In order:

1. Kyle Schwarber is 1-for-20 (.050) in his last five games.

2. JT Realmuto is 4-for-29 (.138) in seven games.

3. Bryce Harper is 7-for-34 (.206) in nine games.

4. Bohm is 25-for-112 (.223) in 27 games.

5. Bryson Stott is 7-for-51 (.137) in 14 games.

6. Castellanos is hitting .214 on the season.

Bohm and Castellanos each hit once on Tuesday night. And that was enough to guarantee victory. Having a .692 winning percentage — the Phillies would win 93 games if they played just .500 the rest of the way — there’s no real pressure to make drastic roster changes. Or even the non-dramatic ones, for that matter.

Thomson noted that if Realmuto, who fouled out on the cup and was involved in a home plate collision in the game, is off Wednesday, some change will be needed in the top two-thirds of the order.

“But I don’t think we’re at the point where we’re going to shake things up,” he said. “I think our guys are fine.”