The pitching market is a tricky area to navigate right now. After all, we live in a world where 12 of the current top 15 ERA pitchers were selected outside of the top 100 picks during draft season, which makes us question whether we really know who the best pitchers are. But the season remains relatively young, having recently passed the third point, and there is still a lot of noise involved in the statistics of starters who have only played 10-12 games.
Wise managers will continue to look at the K:BB ratio as a strong indicator of a pitcher’s true talent, and when evaluating a pitcher’s ERA and WHIP, they will look a level deeper at statistics like BABIP and pitch rate, which can still fluctuate significantly. at this time of year.
When evaluating closers, wise managers will know that some men have had twice as many save opportunities as their counterparts on other teams and that the large difference in opportunities is based more on luck than any other factor.
Who sells high
Kyle Finnegan (RP, Washington Nationals)
This is getting ridiculous.
Finnegan was listed as a “low buy” player in one of those articles in early April, based on the fact that he had an excellent shot at making saves but was largely an afterthought in fantasy leagues. Two months later, he ranks fifth in the majors with 16 saves. Finnegan is one of three pitchers with at least 10 saves, an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00.
The right-hander’s early season success is admirable, but the reality is that he is throwing over his head as much as any other player in baseball. His .158 BABIP and 92% wire rate are extremely fortunate marks for someone with mediocre skills, and his 4.63 FIP and 4.81 xERA are a better indicator of his true talent. I am not suggesting that managers to give Finnegan is out, as he could fill the closer role all season. But I’d be happy to trade him to anyone who takes the bait with the notion that Finnegan is a top-10 closer.
Héctor Neris (RP, Chicago Cubs)
Neris has some similarities to Finnegan, but belongs to a lower tier in the trade market. The right-hander has surprisingly stepped into the role of the Cubs’ closer, and on the surface, things are going great (2.86 ERA, 8-of-10 save chances, 5-0 record).
But even a quick look behind the scenes reveals an 18:16 K:BB ratio and a 1.55 WHIP that foreshadows future struggles. I would be happy to trade Neris for any player I can imagine remaining on my roster in two months, as the guess here is that the Cubs will find a different approach at some point this summer, either within their roster or in trade. Marketplace.
José Berríos (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)
Berríos is fine. He’s an innings eater. He’s the same pitcher he’s always been. His FIP of 4.17 resembles his career mark of 4.04. But thanks to some BABIP luck (.259) and an incredible 87.3% strand rate, the veteran right-hander has posted ratios (2.78 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) that make him look like the No. 2 starter in the mixed league .
Even with the lowest home run rate in baseball, Berríos continues to struggle to keep the ball in the yard (1.3 HR/9 rate) and is destined for regression when his batting luck regresses.
Who to buy low
Pablo López (SP, Minnesota Twins)
López righted the ship when he pitched seven innings of one-run ball last time out, but there may still be a low buying window in some leagues on a pitcher with a disappointing 4.84 ERA. The right-hander will certainly have many more outings that resemble his last, as he has compiled an excellent 75:11 K:BB ratio in 67 innings while dealing with terrible luck with runners on base (67.5 strand rate %).
To connect all the dots in this article, a Berríos bid for López would be a smart offer at this point, and I would be willing to offer a spare piece like Neris to get the deal over the finish line.
Brandon Pfaadt (SP, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Although Pfaadt showed some improvement in run prevention during the month of May, his overall ERA remains an unimpressive 4.32 ERA, and his start-to-start results continue to be inconsistent. The right-hander has been effective this year from a skills standpoint, which includes a K:BB ratio of 71:14 and a WHIP of 1.08.
His ERA was held back by a 59% pitching rate, the lowest of any qualified pitcher. Many of his recent returns on the Yahoo Trade Market have been modest, which is a good indication that Pfaadt is not a coveted commodity in fantasy leagues.
Kirby Yates (RP, Texas Rangers)
Yates has been outstanding this season (0.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) but has only one save since May 9. We’re not talking about the closer White Sox here – the Rangers are the defending World Series champions and have hovered around the .500 mark to this point in 2024.
Yates entered the season on release from most leagues, and while he has done everything in his power to increase his value, his recent lack of save chances has kept him classified as a mid-tier player in the eyes of some managers. Those looking to acquire a premium reliever without paying a premium price would be wise to pick Yates over Emmanuel Clase or Clay Holmes.
