SNY contributor Joe DeMayo answers fan questions in this edition of Mets Minor league mailbag…
From @EricSaadon: With all the money leaving the books after this year, will the Mets still be subject to the “Steve Cohen tax” penalty and have their first pick fall 10 spots in the 2025 draft?
The penalties are based on the previous season’s payroll, so even if the Mets end up being sellers this year, there is no realistic way to get under the higher luxury tax threshold.
The highest threshold is $40 million above the $237 million luxury tax amount. They currently have a luxury tax payroll of $345 million, according to Cot Baseball Contracts, so their payroll would have to be below $277 million by the end of the season. Cutting approximately $70 million is not going to happen.
In order for their top pick to not lose 10 spots, they will need to finish among the top six picks in the 2025 draft after this winter’s lottery. As of this writing, they have the fourth-best odds at the No. 1 pick. If they end up with a top-six pick, their second selection would drop 10 spots.
From @PAstoria75: I know the Mets usually pick a high school bat, a college pitcher, or a college batter, in that order. With the new regime, could they look at the high school pitcher in the first round?
When David Stearns became president of baseball operations for the Mets, one of his few executive hires was bringing in former Astros director of amateur scouting Kris Gross to be the vice president of Amateur Scouting.
We will learn more about this new regime from next month’s draft. When talking to other scouts who know Gross, they say his general preference is tall college bats and more pitching afterward.
I think this is something that will always be based on each individual draft and where they select in that draft, as good scouting departments simply don’t operate in absolute terms.
This year, the Mets will pick No. 19 from a class that lacks high school pitching and has an abundance of college bats available, so it could be that this class fits Gross’ preference.
High school pitching is generally considered the highest risk category in a preliminary system that already has enough risk, which is why you see teams passing high school pitching in the first round. They are much more willing to take that risk, even moving past the slot, beyond the first pick.
On my mock first draftI had the Mets select the University of North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt. Honeycutt has noisy tools with power, speed and defense, but a strikeout rate that would make him almost an anomaly among recent first-round picks.
