While the basic principle of the trading market is to buy low and sell high, there are times when it makes more sense to go the extra mile to get a quality return. After all, the best players are often effective from start to finish, which makes them worth the high returns they demand in the commercial market.
This week’s group of potential trade chips has some players in the “buy high” group, as the belief here is that these men will continue their successful seasons without requiring massive spending. And since the buy low/sell high concept will never completely disappear, there are also a few men listed below who fall into these groups.
Buy high
Corey Seager (SS, Texas Rangers)
Seager was terrible (.594 OPS in April), then incredible (1.047 OPS in May), then briefly absent (zero games from June 6-11). Amid all the inconsistency, Seager has been good overall (14 HR, .259 BA), but not so good that he would require a trade offer to break the bank. The belief here is that the brief injury absence in early June interrupted what could have been a great hitting streak, and that Seager will be one of the best hitters in baseball from this point forward. After all, the 30-year-old posted a 1.013 OPS last year and ranks 13th in baseball in xSLG (.544) this year.
Kyle Schwarber (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
In this offense-deprived MLB landscape, Schwarber is well-positioned to be a valuable run producer this summer. The slugger remains one of the most powerful players in baseball and ranks 10th in the home run category. And as the leadoff hitter on one of the best lineups in baseball, Schwarber is on pace to produce over 190 R+RBI for the third year in a row. Of course, high counting stat totals are more valuable in 2024 than they were the year before, and so far, Schwarber hasn’t experienced the batting average flaws of some past campaigns. Before dismissing his .257 average as early-season noise, managers should remember that he hit .245 over a three-year span from 2019-21 before struggling to collect base hits over the next two years.
Jordan Westburg (2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles)
Westburg has been successful but not surprising, which puts him in a nice group of players who will demand a significant but not exorbitant commercial return. The 25-year-old didn’t benefit from much luck on the way to hitting .277, and while he isn’t special in any category, he meets the definition of a five-category contributor.
And although he generally hits lower in the Orioles’ talented lineup when the team faces a right-hander, Westburg has had chances to be a table-setter against lefties.
Note: Westburg left last night’s game after colliding with Juan Soto, which means officials will want to wait a day or two to see him return to the lineup before making an offer.
Sell high
Daulton Varsho (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
Varsho appears in this space for the second time this season, with a solid run of performances in June opening a new window of booming sales. The outfielder was terrible in May (.633 OPS), but he put up a lot of counting stats, which caused most managers to ignore his low batting mark. The slugger has one of the lowest xBA marks (.170) of any qualified hitter and will likely not be supported well in the future by a subpar lineup. And as part of a Toronto organization that promotes young players while desperately seeking offense, Varsho won’t get playing time if he suffers a power outage in the summer.
Thairo Estrada (2B/SS, San Francisco Giants)
In some ways, Estrada has lived up to expectations this season. After all, he is on pace for about 20 home runs and could produce career-bests in both RBI and runs scored. Managers can use the stats from the previous sentence when sending a trade offer, but honestly, I fear we’ve already seen the best of Estrada for this season. It is not producing a high average exit velocity or many barrels, which could soon lead to a power drought.
The main cause for concern is that after back-to-back 20-steal seasons, the speedster has only hit one base this year. My trade offer will say that Estrada will soon start racking up steals in droves, but I don’t buy it, as the Giants (last overall in steals) clearly have an aversion to taking chances on the basepaths.
Buy low
Lane Thomas (OF, Washington Nationals)
Thomas is in the exact opposite situation to Estrada – his team loves to race. The Nats rank third in baseball with 101 steals, which is especially impressive when you note that none of their players are in the top eight. This is a club that clearly wants to use base stealing to increase its offensive output, and Thomas has been a big part of the plan by stealing 16 sacks in 43 games. Add in the fact that Statcast assigned him an xBA and xSLG that are significantly higher than his actual grades, and it’s easy to see how Thomas could be a top-five contributor in the summer months.
