Red Sox shouldn’t let playoff odds dictate trade deadline strategy originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
There’s a new candidate for the two most dastardly words in baseball: playoff odds.
Tracked by everyone from Baseball-Reference to Fangraphs to Tankathon, playoff odds give general managers/presidents of baseball operations/chief baseball officers cover to justify inaction at the trade deadline.
Former Red Sox boss Chaim Bloom memorably declared his team “underdogs” before last year’s deadline, which signaled that aid would not be made available. Manager Alex Cora responded by wearing a t-shirt with a cartoon of the crime-fighting pup of the same name before the Red Sox did nothing, costing themselves even an outside shot at the postseason, and Bloom his job .
Now Another negotiation deadline approaches, and there are already signs that management’s approach will not reward the club. Based on how little they invested in the roster this winter, it’s clear that ownership and front office did not anticipate this particular Red Sox team’s run. Craig Breslow, Bloom’s replacement, probably assumed he would hold a garage sale on July 31.
But no one told Cora or his young team, which won 15 games in June with an entertaining style of play, briefly clinching the third wild-card spot before losing two of three to the Padres this weekend. The Red Sox remain a game and a half away, but perhaps most importantly, their playoff chances have dropped from 40% to 25.
If Breslow is looking for an excuse to sell expiring contracts like Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Nick Pivetta, Cora won’t give it to him. The manager noted last week that teams that meet the deadline actually suffer as rival competitors improve. Breslow responded in an interview with WEEI ensuring that he would “choose a path” and not be caught in the middle of a buying and selling attempt.
So what clue will it be? Breslow might consider this Year 1 of a rebuild since it’s just arrived, but try selling that to Cora and the team’s fans, who are now entering Year 5 of “waiting until we’re really good at some future, undetermined date.” . ” In a true Year 1, Breslow would be free to sell and the decision would likely be met with some level of understanding. But not now. The Red Sox have only made the playoffs once since winning the 2018 World Series, and it’s not like lack of opportunities.
Just two years ago on this date, for example, the playoff odds were 80 percent. They were 10 games above .500 and building on the previous year’s surprising run to the ALCS. Then came a miserable July and Bloom’s attempt to buy and sell.
He sent starting catcher Christian Vazquez to the rival Astros in what turned out to be an excellent deal for outfielder Wilyer Abreu and second baseman Enmanuel Valdez. He then tried to “buy in” by adding outfielder Tommy Pham and first baseman Eric Hosmer. It didn’t work, the mixed messages discouraged the club, and the Red Sox won 78 games en route to last place.
It’s also worth noting that on this same date, the 2022 Mariners only had an 11 percent chance of making the playoffs. That didn’t stop Seattle’s front office from making an aggressive trade in late June for All-Star first baseman Carlos Santana. The M’s responded on fire, winning 17 of the next 18 games, including 14 in a row. Santana hit just .192, but contributed 15 homers and a walk, and his arrival told the club that the front office had not given up on the season. Seattle made the playoffs and beat the Blue Jays in the wild card before falling to the Astros.
If president of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto had paid attention to the computer simulations, his Mariners would have sold, because they had little mathematical chance of competing. What many executives conveniently ignore, however, is that the odds are not fixed. A DM has the chance to change them significantly if he makes the right moves.
Last year’s Diamondbacks are the most recent example, approaching Paul Seward and making a run to the World Series. But it doesn’t have to be so dramatic. Last year’s Phillies were no better than a coin toss to make the postseason in July, but Dave Dombrowski came out and hit right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who promptly threw a no-hitter. The Phils are done in the NLCS.
Dombrowski never allowed long odds to dissuade him from improving his team. And that’s the most frustrating part of analytically minded people simply giving up and refusing to invest in their teams – if the odds aren’t in your favor, do something to change them.
