Phillies in enviable position to start big weekend in Atlanta

Phillies in enviable position to start big weekend in Atlanta originally appeared in NBC Sports Philadelphia

Who would have expected when the Braves left town on the first weekend of the season that when the teams met again, the Phillies would have a nine-game lead in the NL East?

The Phils arrived in Atlanta on Thursday night with the biggest lead in baseball’s division. They are shorthanded without Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto, but the Braves are also without Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider due to long-term absences.

The Phils have gone 10-6 since wrapping up their challenging trip to London, Boston and Baltimore, winning four of the five series and splitting the other.

The Braves finally seemed to get going in mid-June, when they went 7-2 in three series against the Yankees, Rays and Tigers, but went on to lose six of 10 to the Cardinals, White Sox, Pirates and Giants.

The Phillies won’t see Chris Sale or Charlie Morton this weekend at Truist Park. The pitching matchups are Aaron Nola vs. Max Fried in Friday’s series opener, Ranger Suarez vs. newcomer Spencer Schwellenbach on Saturday and Michael Mercado vs. Reynaldo Lopez on Sunday.

With a nine-game lead, the only scenario this weekend that would hurt the Phillies would be a sweep of Atlanta. Any other result and they will go home in the final week before the All-Star break with an eight-, 10- or 12-game lead in the division.

“It’s like any series, you want to go in and win a series like we did here,” Rob Thomson said on July 4 after the Phillies finished at Wrigley Field. They have good pitching and I know everyone says their offense isn’t working yet, but they have a powerful team. We have our hands full. Just go get them.”

The Phillies and Braves rank first and second in the majors in run prevention, allowing per-game averages of 3.63 and 3.66, well below the league average of 4.37.

The Phils have been much better offensively, scoring 71 more runs than the Braves. That was the most surprising aspect of these first three months, after a full season of dominance from Atlanta’s 2023 lineup. So many players – Acuña, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Harris, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Orlando Arcia – had career years that I couldn’t repeat.

Thomson’s mindset when starting the series is the same as when he flew to Chicago: don’t wake up to a violent fight.

It’s fitting that Nola is on fire Friday night because he never seems to miss a Braves series. More than a full season of his career, 36 games, came against Atlanta. That includes wins in each of the last two NLDS. Nola is 17-11 with a 3.48 overall ERA against the Braves, although he has a 5.34 ERA in his last 10 starts at Truist Park.

Fried couldn’t get out of the first inning at Citizens Bank Park in his first start this season, putting six men on base and recording just two strikeouts. His year began with 10 earned runs in five innings, but he has a 2.08 ERA in 14 starts since then.

The Phillies have won four of six games since Schwarber and Harper went on the injured list on Friday. They scored 2, 2, 2, 5, 6 and 7 runs in those games. Schwarber (groin) could be back as soon as Tuesday and Harper (hamstring) doesn’t look far behind.

Meanwhile, the Phillies hope Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner can continue to be as good as they were. Castellanos has hit .377 over the last 16 games with six doubles, three home runs and 13 RBI.

Turner is 22-for-66 (.333) in 15 games since returning from the injured list, with seven extra-base hits and 14 runs scored. His speed made a big difference in Chicago’s series win between an infield single, stolen base and a fly ball to shallow center. He hit just .200 with a .268 OBP against the Braves as a Phillie, so this weekend would be a good time for him to impact the rivalry.