If everything is bigger in Texas, the homers better be too.
The 2024 Home Run Derby is just around the corner. On Monday, inside the cavernous, air-conditioned baseball warehouse that is Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, an octet of burly young men will shine lasers into the seats.
It’s one of the most delightful events on the baseball calendar, a day that exists largely because it’s such a fun time.
Rule changes
First off, it’s important to note that there are some notable changes to this year’s Derby format.
Instead of starting the event with four direct matches, the first round is leaderboard style. Everyone will hit, and then the four best homers will advance, with No. 1 facing No. 4 and No. 2 facing No. 3 in the familiar bracket configuration in the semifinals.
Players are still tasked with hitting as many long balls as possible within a set amount of time, but there is now a total shot limit. A round will end when the clock expires – three minutes for the first two rounds and two minutes for the final – or when the batter passes the pitch limit of 40 for the first two rounds and 27 for the final. The change is intended to slow down the pace and reduce the chaotic energy that the event has occasionally taken on since switching from an outs-based to a clock-based system in 2015.
The bonus round has also been adjusted. Previously, each player received a 30-second bonus and could earn another 30 seconds if he hit two home runs over 440 feet during the round. Now, the bonus round will end whenever a player records three strikeouts (any other than a home run). If a player throws one at least 425 feet in the bonus round, he will receive an extra out.
So who will win? Let’s evaluate the 2024 Home Run Derby field.
The Orioles’ second-year shortstop will turn 23 years and 19 days old on Derby night, meaning a win would make him the youngest long-bomb champion in the event’s history. Winning the title would also earn Henderson $1 million in prize money, which would more than double his current salary; a similar dynamic happened with Pete Alonso in 2019.
And there’s a real chance that Henderson will make that happen.
Only Aaron Judge has hit more homers this season, and only Judge is likely to stop Henderson from winning the American League MVP trophy at season’s end. He is a generational talent who swings with a special combination of violence and control. His hack is a cherry bomb in a phone booth, a devastating explosion in a small window.
Playing for Henderson on Monday will be the Orioles’ Triple-A captain Buck Britton, the older brother of the legendary Zack Britton, closer to O. Buck, 38, has been a vital piece in Baltimore’s resurgence as the creator of culture at the end point for many of the club’s franchise-changing prospects, including Henderson.
Ozuna’s inclusion raised some eyebrows throughout the baseball world considering his history off the field; The Braves DH was suspended 20 games in 2021 under MLB’s domestic violence program after he was arrested and accused of allegedly grabbing his wife by the neck and throwing her against a wall. The criminal charges were later dropped, but Ozuna was ordered to complete a pretrial diversion program on charges of family violence and simple assault.
Between that suspension, a series of injuries, and a DUI charge in August 2022, Ozuna’s career seemed destined to disappear. But after posting an abysmal .425 OPS in April 2023, the Dominican slugger authorized a remarkable turnaround. Shohei Ohtani and Judge are the only players with more home runs than Ozuna since May 1, 2023. Their performance this season – slashing .296/.374/.568 with 24 HRs and 75 RBI – has kept the Braves in the playoff hunt.
But Ozuna’s resurgence on the field doesn’t inherently give his story a redemption arc; the way back is more complicated than that. Many will feel uncomfortable seeing him in the spotlight, being celebrated on the national stage. The nuances of this conversation are unlikely to be given adequate depth during the Derby broadcast. Putting a player with that kind of background into this event was a questionable and unforced error on MLB’s part. If he wins, the league will have to reckon with the consequences.
Braves bullpen catcher José Yepez will pitch to Ozuna in the Derby.
Ramírez, participating for the second time, would be the first hitter to lift the Derby trophy. At Dodger Stadium in 2022, the stocky slugger was limited by a thumb issue that meant he could only swing comfortably with his right hand. But throughout his career, the delightfully combative slugger had nearly identical HR/PA rates on both sides. Globe Life Field is a slightly better right-handed home run park, but Ramírez could emulate what Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman did in 2023 and “switch plates” mid-contest.
Junior Betances, hitting coach for Cleveland’s Triple-A Columbus Clippers, will pitch for Ramírez in the Derby. They have a close relationship that dates back to when Ramírez enrolled in the system. Betances was based in the Dominican Republic, carrying out operations out of the team’s DR complex. Including him here is a nice gesture for a guy who has known Ramírez his entire life.
The smiley outfielder signed a strong one-year pact with the Dodgers last winter in hopes of rebounding from a subpar 2023 in Seattle. So far, it’s been a win for everyone involved.
Hernández has given Los Angeles the consistency it needs, and his 19 home runs rank second on the team behind only Ohtani. This will be his first Derby; I hope he does better than his teammate Mookie Betts in his first attempt last year.
Fortunately, Hernández has some experience on his side, as Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel will be playing for him. Ebel has thrown dingers in the Derby many times, with Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson using him as a pitcher. Another fun story to watch is that Ebel’s son, Brady, is competing in the high school home run derby on Saturday. If he advances to the final, he could bounce between the pros in the big league Derby with his father watching.
For better or worse, no one cares more about the Derby than the Polar Bear.
The intense seriousness that Alonso brings to the extravagant and festive atmosphere of the event always creates a hilarious juxtaposition. But the Mets first baseman, ready to compete for the fifth consecutive season, clearly knows what he’s doing. He won in 2019 and 2021. Another title in Arlington would tie him with Ken Griffey Jr. for the most Derby wins in MLB history. There were even rumors that his inclusion in the All-Star Game – Alonso was an MLB selection – was partially motivated by his inclination to compete in the Derby only if he was in the game.
Playing for the impending free agent will be baseball veteran Dave Jauss, who played for Alonso in ’21 and ’22. Jauss, 67, who is currently in the front office of the Washington Nationals, has served as a big league coach for the Mets, Pirates, Orioles , Dodgers and Red Sox. His outrageously consistent batting practice pitching performances in his two previous Derby starts have made Jauss something of a baseball cult hero. It’s great to have him back in the mix.
Homegrown and only participant not selected for the All-Star Game, García also competed in 2023. Texas’ only positional player elected to the game, Marcus Semien, would have been an underwhelming pick, so good on MLB for finding another Ranger to go up. With the exception of Los Angeles in 2022, there has been a hometown hitter in every Derby since 2012.
García disappointed last year, managing just 17 taters in the first round, the second-lowest total of the event. He looked particularly exhausted after falling to fellow Cuban outfielder Randy Arozarena. He also didn’t get the 440-foot home run bonus, which sank his round.
Rangers third base coach Tony Beasley pitched to García last year, but it’s unclear if he will pitch again.
García may live and play in Arlington now, but Witt grew up just 30 minutes from Globe Life Field. The entire All-Star experience (Witt’s first) will be a homecoming of sorts for the Royals’ exciting shortstop, but the Derby will be the biggest highlight.
The 24-year-old has just 15 long balls this year, but that total is slightly lower than at his home stadium; Kauffman Stadium is one of the worst home run parks in MLB. If Witt played all of his home games at Dodger Stadium, for example, Statcast says he would have 25 homers. And although this is Junior’s first derby as a big leaguer, he won the annual high school derby that takes place during one of the MLB’s break as a rising senior in 2018.
Pitching to him will be former MLB reliever and Witt’s brother-in-law, James Russell. All three of Witt’s sisters married big leaguers, but Russell was approved for Junior’s first Derby appearance. It’s a surprise that his father, Bobby Witt Sr., himself a former big league pitcher and the individual who gave Junior more batting practice than anyone else, didn’t receive approval.
No one in MLB this season has more doubles than Bohm, whose 31 two-baggers lead baseball by five over Francisco Lindor. Unfortunately for him, this is a home run contest, not a doubles contest.
But Bohm is not a hitter. Believe it or not, he has the fifth-longest average home run distance on this field, ahead of Hernández, García and Ramírez and just three feet behind Henderson. And seven of Bohm’s 11 round-trippers this year were struck at more than 400 feet. Plus, he appears in a lineup that features Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, both of whom have chart-topping energy, which could overshadow some of his power.
Bohm won a Home Run Derby while playing in the Coastal Plains college summer league and tagged the same guy who threw for him that day, Scott Wingo, for the big challenge. Wingo was a national champion at the University of South Carolina and played minor league baseball for a few years before becoming a college coach. He is now the recruiting coordinator at Manhattan College.
If Bohm loses, at least he will end up with a mountain of doubles.
Prediction
Hometown favorite Bobby Witt Jr. defeats fellow shortstop Gunnar Henderson in the final.
