Should the Red Sox buy at the trade deadline? Wildcard history gives easy answer originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Red Sox may not look like a World Series contender right now. But the Arizona Diamondbacks haven’t done that either at this point in the 2023 MLB season.
The D-Backs were 54-47, tied for second in the National League West, on July 24 last season. They decided not to sell at the trade deadline and instead took steps to improve the team. Arizona’s most notable additions were closer Paul Sewald, outfielder/designated hitter Tommy Pham, and setup men Ryan Thompson and Andrew Saalfrank. None of these players were seen as having a “big impact”, but their arrivals addressed the squad’s main weaknesses.
The Diamondbacks finished as the third wild card team in the NL and advanced to the World Series, where they lost to the Texas Rangers in five games. Arizona and Texas were wild-card teams. It was the third time that both World Series participants were not division winners.
It was also another example of why it’s important to just make the postseason. Once you enter, anything can happen. It sounds cliché, and it is. But with the 2024 trade deadline just a week away, the Red Sox should absolutely consider the success of recent wild-card teams when determining whether to make significant additions to their roster.
The Red Sox have a nearly identical record as the 2023 D-Backs as of this date. They enter Wednesday with a 54-46 record and are one game behind the Kansas City Royals for the third and final AL wild card spot. They are also one game behind the Minnesota Twins for the second wild card spot.
History suggests that finishing as a wild card team could lead to some pretty exciting playoffs.
Consider these statistics/trends:
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Since 2000, seven teams have won the World Series as a wild card, including the 2004 Red Sox.
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Since 2000, AL wild card teams have won 20 postseason series (ALDS, ALCS and World Series)
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Since 2000, 12 AL Wild Card teams have reached at least the ALCS
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At least one wild card team reached the World Series from 2002 to 2007
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Three World Series (2002, 2014 and 2023) have featured two wildcard teams
The Red Sox have been a wild card playoff team eight times, tied with the New York Yankees for the most since the original wild card format was introduced in 1995. Boston has won nine postseason series as a wild card team, with their most recent win coming in the 2021 ALDS against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Half of all AL playoffs (12 of 24) this century have had a wild card team make it to the ALCS (or more). This is a crazy trend.
What’s behind the postseason success of these wild-card teams?
Playing meaningful games in August and September certainly helps. These teams often played in high-pressure scenarios for two months, making the transition from the regular season to the playoffs a little easier.
Some of these teams were also very good, but ended up in the same division with another team that won more games. For example, the 2004 Red Sox had the third-best record (98-64) in baseball, but were a wild-card team because the Yankees had the second-best record (101-61). That Red Sox team wasn’t your typical wild card team.
Adding a starting pitcher, a reliever and/or a right-handed bat would be an impactful upgrade for this year’s Red Sox team. This year’s group plays with speed and can also produce offensively, ranking in the top five among AL teams in hits, doubles, triples, home runs, steals, batting average and on-base percentage. More depth, especially on the pitching staff, would be quite valuable. Pitching often makes or breaks a team’s title chances in October.
The Red Sox haven’t made the playoffs since 2021. In fact, it’s their only postseason appearance since winning the 2018 World Series. Ownership should send a message to players and fans that they believe in this team, and the way More effective in conveying this sentiment would be to make an addition or two before next week’s trade deadline.
This team has exceeded expectations and deserves a chance to make a wild card at the end of September.
And as history shows, just entering the tournament can yield fantastic results. The Red Sox, given their success as a wild-card team, should understand this better than most other franchises.
