Bobby Witt Jr.’s emergence highlights unfair pressure on Marcelo Mayer originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
The Red Sox’ operating philosophy since the 2020 MLB Draft can basically be described in six words: “Wait until Marcelo Mayer gets here.”
The Red Sox couldn’t sign Xander Bogaerts long-term for fear he would block Mayer. They haven’t been able to spend in any of the last three seasons, because why invest before Mayer sparks the local renaissance? God bless these 2024 overachievers, but with all due respect to Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and Ceddanne Rafaela, the real fun begins when Mayer leads the next generation to Boston.
To this operating philosophy, I can offer a three-word rebuttal: Bobby Witt Jr.
The Red Sox open a three-game series with the Royals and their franchise shortstop on Monday in the biggest matchup between Boston and Kansas City since Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes. The Royals lead the Red Sox by 2.5 games in the race for the final wild card, and they wouldn’t even be in the conversation without Witt.
The second overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, Witt struggled his first two seasons and is now getting revenge. He is by far the best player in the American League, if not MLB, and the MVP race looks like a collision course between Witt and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge.
Witt is what a franchise shortstop looks like, with a 30-30 season already under his belt and a potential batting title on the horizon. Just six weeks after his 24th birthday, he is hitting a league-leading .344 with 20 homers, 25 steals and a .980 OPS.
His skills are breathtaking. There is 10-minute YouTube videos dedicated to his “God mode” defensive plays, and he is visiting television in difficult situations. Just a week ago, the Royals appeared to be headed for certain defeat to the White Sox before Witt’s grand slam in the eighth. They have that team of destiny feel and their shortstop fuels the engine.
What this has to do with Mayer is simple – he almost certainly won’t be Witt, and that’s okay. We are talking about generational talent. But it highlights the distorted thinking that has left the Red Sox able to imagine salvation only through the farm system.
Not only is this risky, but it also does a disservice to talented players like Mayer.
Mayer shouldn’t have to play savior. It should be enough that he is a truly talented player, and maybe even an All-Star. But by refusing to invest in their big league roster until prospects arrive, the Red Sox have created a dynamic where if Mayer is as good as, say, Duran, it will be considered a failure, which is crazy, because we were conditioned to wait for the next Witt.
This almost certainly won’t happen.
For one thing, Witt is more athletic. He stole 49 bases last year in the big leagues, while Mayer stole 46 bases in four years in the minor leagues. Witt also has more raw power. In his only full minor league season, he hit 33 home runs in just 124 games. Mayer didn’t hit his 33rd minor league home run until May.
Witt has also proven more resilient, on pace for his third straight season of at least 150 games, while Mayer is on the injured list with a hip injury following a cut to his shoulder last season.
None of this means Mayer won’t be a real deal. Respected analyst Keith Law of The Athletic just named Mayer as their second overall prospect, and before this latest injury, Mayer was on fire. But even the most optimistic projections lean more toward a well-rounded star than an unstoppable force. Mayer is a plus defender with the potential to hit .300 and perhaps grow into more power.
His floor in the daily big league is very high; What’s less clear is the height of his ceiling or the likelihood of him reaching it, the kind of phrase no one has ever written about Witt.
And it’s not like Witt dominated from day one. Two years into his career, he was batting just .265. Although he finished seventh in last year’s MVP voting, the real leap came in Year 3. It took about 1,000 at-bats to adjust to big league pitching.
Will the Red Sox show similar patience when Mayer gets the call?
None of this means Mayer won’t be a good big league player. But pay close attention the next three nights when Witt enters the zone or dives for a ball in the hole. That’s a franchise shortstop, and baseball can only be blessed with one or two of them at a time.
