When you take a step back and look at the UFC event schedule for the first half of 2024, Saturday night’s UFC 301 fight card isn’t one that catches your eye. Instead, it’s more like the one that sits between the really good things, in the same way that a dull work week sits between two fun weekends.
But Rio de Janeiro’s pay-per-view offering on Saturday is not without merit or interest, especially when you can count on the energy of a Brazilian crowd for the first time this year.
Speaking of which, one thing to remember is that the UFC sometimes books these types of events with a heavy emphasis on pleasing the locals. Many Brazilian fighters. Many advantageous confrontations. Many victories for the home team. Of the five fights on the main card, four have the Brazilian as the betting favorite. (And the other sees the return of a Rio legend in José Aldo, who is just a minor underdog.)
This does not necessarily mean that it will be a big party for the Brazilian public. What this means is that any combatant coming from foreign soil better be prepared for some occasional boos and shouts as a reminder of their mortality.
Here’s a closer look at what to expect from the pay-per-view portion of UFC 301:
Paul Craig (+425) x Caio Borralho (-600)
Who are they: Craig is a Scottish submission specialist who, frankly, should be too big to make it to middleweight, but somehow he does. Borralho is a Brazilian who hasn’t lost in the UFC yet and is slowly building something that resembles the hype.
Why this matters: Borralho has defeated some decent fighters in his slow climb up the division, but no household names yet. Craig is a household name. He’s also the type of guy who can surprise a rookie who isn’t ready for the next level. Is this Borralho? The point of this fight seems to be to find out.
Michel Pereira (-700) x Ihor Potieria (-550)
Who are they: Pereira is a natural showman who had to learn to limit his personal brand of eccentricity when he discovered that mid-fight backflips sometimes don’t leave enough gas in the tank for eventual victory. Potieria has the rare distinction of having a nickname we haven’t seen a dozen times (“The Duelist”), but he’s still trying to get back above .500 in the UFC.
Why this matters: Will Pereira become more than just an entertaining spectacle? You’d think he would be by now, considering he’s won seven in a row. On paper, Potieria appears to be here to lose in a fun way to help cheer up a Brazilian fan base that always enjoys seeing one of their own triumphs. The disadvantage for Pereira is that when you appear as a 7-1 favorite, you really I need to win.
Anthony Smith (+400) x Vitor Petrino (-550)
Who are they: Smith is a former title challenger and UFC commentary mainstay who is beloved but also perhaps a little dismissed at this stage of his career. Petrino is an undefeated Brazilian who asked for Smith’s name in hopes of adding it to a resume that is starting to look quite respectable.
Why this matters: Smith is at a career crossroads. At 35 years old, his hopes of fighting for another UFC title are very dim if he can’t win this one. Petrino is almost a decade younger and has no blemishes on his record. The way these things usually happen in this sport is that the young eat the old and the sustenance propels them into the future. Every now and then this narrative is interrupted. How about this time?
Jonathan Martinez (-150) x José Aldo (+125)
Who are they: Martinez is another young man who dreams of glory. His six-fight winning streak suggests he might be capable of it. Aldo was a great featherweight in his day, genuinely one of the best southern lightweight fighters to ever put on a pair of gloves. Only now he’s approaching his late thirties and has already retired once. Reasonable people might wonder if he should have stayed that way.
Why this matters: Aldo called it quits after a loss to Merab Dvalishvili in 2022, which snapped a three-fight winning streak and closed the door on his dream of regaining UFC gold. Now his focus seems more on fighting for his contract to free him up for a number of potential futures. The bottom line for Martinez is that he has a chance to add some very significant skin to the wall. But even an Aldo diminished by age is still, well, Aldo. And beating him in Brazil will never be easy.
Alexandre Pantoja (-185) x Steve Erceg (+150)
Who are they: Pantoja is the current UFC men’s flyweight champion and he is very, very good. Erceg is ranked 10th in the division, which makes his sudden appearance in the title fight a bit surprising. He has three straight UFC wins, which is nothing. But these are also his only fights in the UFC.
Why this matters: Well, there’s the 125-pound title. Pantoja won the title last summer and now appears to be at the height of his powers as a versatile fighter who is especially good on the ground. Erceg is a colorful and friendly chap from Western Australia, but he might be getting that big shot a little too soon. On the other hand, a victory over Pantoja to win the title would make him an important person overnight. This is, at least partially, because it seems so unlikely.
