Now things get serious.
Olympic men’s basketball went from Lille in the north of France to the center of attention in Paris and, most importantly, we moved into the knockout stage: lose and go home. Win and advance to compete for medals.
The USA dominated the group stage, going 3-0 and winning by an average of 21.4 points per game, without ever really feeling threatened. LeBron James looked like the tournament MVP, the American defenses are in trouble, and Anthony Edwards (16.7 points per game) and Kevin Durant (16) lead an overwhelming attack. The Americans are having fun and putting on a show.
Who is the biggest threat to stop the USA from climbing to the top of the podium and winning gold?
Honestly, it’s the USA themselves – if they don’t take their opponent seriously or they don’t take their opponent seriously, they could beat themselves in the later part of the tournament. Which teams could benefit? Let’s rank the remaining seven on their chances of beating the U.S. in a game.
1. Germany
If LeBron is not the Olympic MVP so far, it’s Dennis Schroder – 19.7 points and 9 assists per game, shooting 40.9% from 3. Pair him with Orlando’s rising star Franz Wagner (21.7 points and 5 rebounds per game) and you’ll have a talented core of a deep team that knows how to play together – remember Germany won the FIBA World Cup last summer. Germany did this with their defense, allowing 73.7 points per game – 8.6 per game less than any other team (part of that is pace; Germany is deliberate, while the US prefers to play at a fast pace, the which means more shots for the opponent). also).
Germany’s other advantage is that they will face Greece in the first game of the knockout phase. While that means facing Giannis Antetokounmpo (leading the Olympics with 27 points per game), the team around the Greek Freak has struggled and the Greeks reached the knockout stage with a 1-2 record. The Germans should progress to the quarter-finals in a strong position. They wouldn’t see the U.S. until the gold medal game, where they would have a chance to throw a punch in a game.
2. Canada
We knew that going into the Olympics, Canada had the deepest lineup outside of the United States and it showed – they went through 3-0 in the “group of death”. Although the margin of victory (6.7 points per game) is not overwhelming, the fact that they managed to beat Australia, Greece and Spain is a good sign. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been fantastic – 19 points, 4 assists and 4 rebounds per game – and has yet to play his best game, while RJ Barrett is scoring 21 points per night. Additionally, Canada features SGA’s best defensemen, Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks.
Canada struggled with the size of the USA in a friendly match, but in a game for gold, they would have a chance if they won 3. Getting there will be the difficult part, Canada faces a quality French team with real size in the match most interesting of the quarterfinals.
3. Serbia
Serbia could be the USA’s opponent in the semifinals and has Nikola Jokic on the list, averaging 18.7 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists per game on 64.5% shooting. He is still the best player on the planet and can win any game against anyone. Bogdan Bogdanovic also added 19 points per game for the Serbs. Still, it’s hard to call a team USA wins by 26 in Olympic group debut a threat (the USA also beat Serbia by 26 in an exhibition). Serbia can keep up with the US when Jokic is on the court, but they don’t have the depth to stay close in the minutes he sits.
4. France
The host country looked much better on paper than on the court – they went 2-1 up but narrowly beat Japan (and needed a late four-point play to do so). Victor Wembanyama was everything France could have hoped for, averaging 17 points, 10.7 rebounds and a few blocks per game, as well as shooting 43.8% from 3 – all at age 20 in his first Olympics. He’s an alien. While Wemby and Rudy Gobert form a formidable front line, the French backcourt is a weakness, one that Canada will likely exploit in the first quarterfinal clash and one that the U.S. would certainly exploit if the teams meet for gold.
5. Australia
Another team that looked more threatening on paper than in person. Josh Giddey is making Bulls fans smile with his play – 15 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game and shooting 42.9% from 3 – and they have talent with him in Dyson Daniels, Josh Green, Jock Landale and Dante Exum, but everything just didn’t come together on the court. The USA led the exhibition game against Australia by 24 before taking their foot off the gas and learning a lesson in a 98-92 victory. The Americans are too far back to be threatened by the Boomers if they meet in the second round (Australia faces Serbia).
6. Greece
The only reason Greece isn’t in last place is that they have Giannis Antetokounmpo – 27 points per game and 68.9% shooting in the group stage, as well as 7.7 rebounds per night. He can single-handedly win a game – and he will have to if Greece are to overtake Germany in the first round. The rest of the Greek team did not play up to the standards set by Antetokounmpo.
7. Brazil
The Brazilians give the USA the first chance in the quarterfinals and are led by Vitor Benite with 14.3 points per game. Brazil’s only hope is to rain 3s on the Americans, the South American team is shooting 45.3% from 3 at the Olympics, the highest percentage of any team. Brazil is also strong on the offensive glass. As we saw in the NCAA Tournament, a hot game with lots of 3s can lead to an upset, but that seems like a tall order for this Brazilian team that is 1-2 and outscored by 2.4 points per game.
