With the conclusion of summer league and the Paris Olympics, we’ve reached a point in the NBA calendar where there isn’t much going on. League schedules are expected to drop soon, which will give us some things to discuss before training camp begins in late September. And there’s never a wrong time to discuss players whose fantasy values could improve next season due to a change of scenery or the rotation they already belong to. Here are some players who could fit in and benefit your fantasy teams this winter.
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Josh Giddey (2023-24 Yahoo ADP: 62)
After improving his fantasy value from Year 1 to Year 2, Giddey took a significant hit during his third season with the Thunder. This wasn’t a complete shock, as the addition of Chet Holmgren and the continued growth of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams meant someone was going to take a hit. Giddey’s total and per-game fantasy values haven’t dropped significantly, and his per-36 value has improved, according to Basketball Monster. However, it became evident that a change would need to be made, especially as his minutes decreased significantly during the postseason.
Enter the Chicago Bulls, who acquired Giddey from the Thunder in exchange for Alex Caruso in one of the more surprising offseason moves (as Chicago received no future draft capital other than Giddey). The change of scenery could provide a welcome boost to his fantasy value, as the Bulls are in need of a rebuild and improved play right now. What should also excite Fantasy managers was Giddey’s performance in Paris, as in four games he averaged 17.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.3 blocks and 2.3 shots. from 3-point range, shooting 50.0% from the field, 47.4% from three, and 53.8% from the foul line.
Whether the perimeter shooting accuracy can be sustained is a matter of debate, especially considering the closer 3-point line and Giddey’s free throw struggles. However, the move to Chicago should result in him taking on a bigger role than what would have been in store for him had the Thunder not made the trade.
Chris Paulo (75)
By no means was Paul a “bad” fantasy player during his one season with the Warriors, ranking in the top 100 in 9-cat value per game. However, the combination of injuries (58 games played) and new role (18 starts) significantly impacted the future Hall of Fame point guard’s production. Paul finished the 2023-24 campaign with a career-low average of 9.2 points per game, and the 6.8 assists were the fewest for him since the 2018-19 season (career-low 6.7 per game in Houston). With a potential price tag of $30 million for the 2024-25 season and Golden State looking to reduce its tax bill, it was clear that CP3 was likely headed elsewhere.
Enter San Antonio, which had a more urgent need to improve its point guard rotation, especially with the rapid rise of Victor Wembanyama. When a team that has won 15 games has a young talent like Wemby, the “rebuilding” clock tends to speed up. Last season was the first in which Paul finished outside the top 35 in fantasy value in his career, with the 2022-23 season in Phoenix (31st, according to Basketball Monster) being the previous low. Expecting Paul to easily break into the top 50 in fantasy value this season might be a bit much given his age. However, returning to the starting lineup while sharing the court with one of the sport’s emerging talents should benefit him (and the managers who select CP3 in drafts).
Mitchell Robinson (100)
Robinson’s issue last season was his health, and that has been the case for most of his NBA career. The Knicks center has surpassed 60 games played in three of his six seasons, and an ankle injury has limited him to 31 in 2023-24. It’s fair to wonder if Robinson was fully healthy at the time of his return, especially when other issues during the postseason resulted in the 7-footer needing another ankle surgery in mid-May. At the time, it was reported that Robinson would be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks, and the expectation is that he will be ready to go when the season begins.
When healthy, he is one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA and a capable rim protector. Robinson’s shooting percentage will be high as most of his shot attempts come in the restricted area. According to NBA tracking data, 100% of Robinson’s field goal attempts came within 10 feet of the basket. Adding to the health concerns as a negative for Fantasy managers is foul shooting, which made Robinson a good option for those looking to bet in this category. He made 40.9% of his attempts from the charity stripe last season and is shooting 51.8% for his career. This is not good. However, if Robinson can stay relatively healthy, the positives could outweigh the negatives in 2024-25.
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Terance Mann (141)
Even though he earned the right to start last season as a starter, Mann wasn’t a player burdened with high fantasy expectations. He still occupied a spot between stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and there was also the possibility of the Clippers acquiring James Harden. Harden would be traded to Los Angeles, and that trio made it incredibly difficult for Mann to exceed his expected value in the final round. He didn’t even crack the top 200 in 9-cat formats, despite starting 71 of the 75 matches he played. Mann finished the regular season with averages of 8.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.9 3-point shots in 25.0 minutes, shooting 51.5% from the field and 83.2% from the foul line.
Why should fantasy managers consider the possibility of Mann rebounding next season? George is gone, having agreed to a max deal with the 76ers. And then there’s Leonard’s health, which remains difficult to predict. His time with USA Basketball was cut short as the decision was made to replace him with Derrick White on the squad that won gold in Paris. Leonard played in 68 games last season, the most since his penultimate campaign in San Antonio (74 games in 2016-17). And this is only the second time he has appeared in at least 60 years since then. Mann was once again expected to be a late pick, but the odds of him meeting (or even surpassing) that expectation in 2024-25 have increased.
Christian Braun (146)
Braun is in a similar position to Mann, although he wasn’t on track to be a starter last season. Denver’s starting five remained intact after winning the franchise’s first NBA title, but the bench suffered significant losses, most notably Bruce Brown and Jeff Green. This opened the door for Braun to potentially provide late-round value, but he was unable to do so. Finishing with averages of 7.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks and 0.8 3-point shots in 20.2 minutes, Braun finished his second season in NBA ranked in the top 300 in 9-cat formats.
So what has changed? The Nuggets lost a starter in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who agreed to a three-year contract with the Magic this summer. Braun is projected as the favorite to fill the void, even with second-year guard Julian Strawther leaving in Las Vegas (in two games played) last month. CB is the better defender of the two, which could be what gives him the edge given what the Nuggets lost at KCP.
A key for Braun in 2024-25 will be his 3-point shooting, as Caldwell-Pope averaged 1.6 shots while shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc. Playing with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray as a starter should grant Braun quality catching and shooting opportunities, and he could also benefit from the addition of the NBA’s all-time leader in triple-doubles (Russell Westbrook), depending on how Michael Malone sets up the rotation. If Braun can take over the starting role early in the preseason, it would provide a welcome boost to his draft stock.
